MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL/NRN FL PEN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221620Z - 221745Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...DUE PRIMARILY TO RELATIVELY SHORT TIME DURATION AND
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED THREAT.
   
   SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTENANCE OF
   SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
   REGION.  STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY VIGOROUS...AND SEEM
   LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER NEXT FEW HOURS AS ELIMINATION OF NEAR
   SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION ALLOWS DEVELOPMENT OUT OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY POSE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS
   THEY APPROACH GAINESVILLE BY 18Z.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS WHICH
   COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SPREADS
   EAST OF GAINESVILLE INTO COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH
   DAYTONA BEACH BY 20Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30248282 30348217 30158153 29688124 28928109 28918181
   29208249 29438305 29858278

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC...PARTS OF ERN SC AND SE VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237...
   
   VALID 221707Z - 221830Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 237.  ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA/SOUTH
   CAROLINA...ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN
   BRANCH TROUGH APPEARS TO BE JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES HAVE ALREADY
   PROGRESSED THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM...THROUGH THE
   SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  THIS INCLUDES ONE WAVE/WIND
   SHIFT WHICH HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR NARROW INTENSIFYING LINE OF
   CONVECTION FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH RALEIGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA.  WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   SUPPORT A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS.  AND...30 TO 40
   KT MEAN FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS
   AND ENHANCED RISK OF STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH 21-22Z.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN NUMBER
   UPSTREAM...BUT LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND DESTABILIZATION
   IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   32787933 32438061 31968164 31528347 32178394 34008375
   35198271 35458051 36597861 36847816 37427728 37437691
   36117605 35467602 34257669 33417774 33227820 33137844

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NW OH...NRN AND CNTRL IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221919Z - 222115Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD BECOME
   NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING IS CURRENTLY
   OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND
   SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF CLOSED UPPER LOW.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AND ONGOING DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF MUSKEGON.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL ONLY
   ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...BUT WITH FURTHER HEATING IN MODERATELY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS SHOULD INCREASE.  MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DETROIT
   AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.
   
   THEREAFTER...MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL
   BECOME REORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PARTS
   OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA...AS A 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
   AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW.  PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL
   RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
   DESTABILIZATION...IN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.  ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   43788588 44388579 44628499 44198345 43148267 42108261
   40618382 39228594 39538720 40338716 41648574

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221952Z - 222145Z
   
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER
   OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX.
   MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...POSSIBLY BY
   21Z-22Z.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING IN
   VICINITY NM/SOUTHWEST TX MOUNTAINS AT MID AFTERNOON...NAMELY NEAR
   ROSWELL/ARTESIA NM. EVEN IN PRESENCE OF AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING...50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
   ACROSS WEST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NM WITHIN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
   UPSLOPE FLOW. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN NM/WEST TX PLAINS...WITH
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL SPREADING EASTWARD
   EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
   1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   TRENDS FROM THE TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS NM PROFILERS SUGGEST A
   DEEPENING/LOWERING OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
   PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 35-40 KTS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COMMON IN
   THE MID LEVELS. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
   SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ACROSS THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY IS
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP/EVOLVE INTO WEST/NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY
   INCREASING AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE. IT APPEARS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED BY THE 21Z-22Z TIMEFRAME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   31520490 32570493 34550442 35810361 35850175 34910117
   32710205 31000258 30970385

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO OZARKS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222018Z - 222215Z
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.
   HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY
   LOCALIZED...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ROTATING
   AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED
   LOW...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
   MISSOURI OZARKS.  THIS IS OCCURRING ON EASTERN FRINGE OF CAPPING
   LOW/MID-LEVEL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   STEEP...AND CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE INTO THE 500 TO 1000
   J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS
   POINT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER TO
   THE NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE.  IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS THAT ACTIVITY
   COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE
   23/00Z.  FRONTAL FORCING WILL ENHANCE LIFT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD
   TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER.
   
   IF STORMS DEVELOP...SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   38419443 38679357 38559250 38469162 37899122 37399193
   37369340 37799444

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC/SC....ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 222158Z - 230000Z
   
   ...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE AREA...
   
   SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
   MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN VA...ERN
   NC AND SC...AND ERN GA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS MOIST/MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
   REGION AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW POCKETS
   OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW PERSIST...
   DIMINISHING DIURNAL AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN A
   GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. A FEW WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS REMAIN ONGOING WITH ATTENDANT
   THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...BUT A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
   
   32128084 31558289 33638080 34628004 35957914 36157822
   36017727 35697697 34927671 33897796 33467905 32518033

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...
   
   VALID 222323Z - 230130Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST TX. MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WW 238 INTO WEST/NORTHWEST TX.
   
   AS OF 2315Z...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM -- NAMELY ALONG HIGHWAY 285 CORRIDOR FROM
   SOUTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI TO NEAR ROSWELL/LOVINGTON -- INTO THE PECOS
   VALLEY/BIG BEND AREA OF SOUTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR WEST/NORTHWEST TX THROUGH MID
   EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   IS TENDING TO OFFSET VERTICAL MIXING...WITH PERSISTENCE OF
   LOWER/MIDDLE 50S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LUBBOCK AREA PER
   THE WEST TX MESONET.
   
   LATEST TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA SUPPORTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40
   KTS...FAVORABLE FOR WELL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
   WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ONE OR MORE MCS
   CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE INTO FAR WEST/NORTHWEST TX...WITH COLD POOL
   GENERATION/INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
   SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   33780452 35370380 35580247 34880162 33490139 30940263
   30580415 32180452

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0944 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS....WRN/CNTRL MO...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 230244Z - 230445Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT FROM
   NERN KS ACROSS WRN...CNTRL...AND ERN MO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
   WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS NEARLY
   STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM ECNTRL KS TO SCNTRL MO WERE
   LIKELY AIDING STORM INITIATION FROM TOP/MKC AREA TO SERN MO LATE
   THIS EVENING. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH
   STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN
   NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL
   BAND...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE
   OF THE PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70KT WILL PROMOTE STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW
   STORMS POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT
   FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HAIL. GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
   MAY BE INHIBITED BY LACK OF MORE WELL-DEFINED LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE
   ON ASCENT AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT LIMITED EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS FEEDING
   INTO THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37929497 38249656 39279768 39629727 39629524 39379418
   39069313 38349063 38099037 37889046 37649072 37589117
   37609140 37629180 37629251 37789364 37819438

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS....WRN/CNTRL MO...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 230248Z - 230445Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT FROM
   NERN KS ACROSS WRN...CNTRL...AND ERN MO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
   WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS NEARLY
   STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM ECNTRL KS TO SCNTRL MO WERE
   LIKELY AIDING STORM INITIATION FROM TOP/MKC AREA TO SERN MO LATE
   THIS EVENING. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH
   STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN
   NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL
   BAND...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE
   OF THE PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70KT WILL PROMOTE STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW
   STORMS POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT
   FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HAIL. GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
   MAY BE INHIBITED BY LACK OF MORE WELL-DEFINED LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE
   ON ASCENT AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT LIMITED EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS FEEDING
   INTO THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37929497 38249656 39279768 39629727 39629524 39379418
   39069313 38349063 38099037 37889046 37649072 37589117
   37609140 37629180 37629251 37789364 37819438

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0950 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS....WRN/CNTRL MO...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 230250Z - 230445Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT FROM
   NERN KS ACROSS WRN...CNTRL...AND ERN MO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
   WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS NEARLY
   STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM ECNTRL KS TO SCNTRL MO WERE
   LIKELY AIDING STORM INITIATION FROM TOP/MKC AREA TO SERN MO LATE
   THIS EVENING. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH
   STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN
   NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL
   BAND...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE
   OF THE PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70KT WILL PROMOTE STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW
   STORMS POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT
   FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HAIL. GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
   MAY BE INHIBITED BY LACK OF MORE WELL-DEFINED LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE
   ON ASCENT AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT LIMITED EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS FEEDING
   INTO THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37929497 38249656 39279768 39629727 39629524 39379418
   39069313 38349063 38099037 37889046 37649072 37589117
   37609140 37629180 37629251 37789364 37819438

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 230712Z - 230945Z
   
   TSTMS ARE FORMING OVER PORTIONS PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN
   REGIONS...FROM ERN CULBERSON COUNTY TX ENEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER OF
   NM.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
   ENEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. OCCASIONAL HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY
   ORGANIZED ATTM TO WARRANT WW.
   
   CONVENTIONAL SFC DATA AND W TX MESONET OBS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM KENT COUNTY SWWD ACROSS MARTIN
   COUNTY TX...TO NEAR SERN TIP OF NM...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE.  AIR
   MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUAL DIABATIC
   COOLING...BENEATH 40-50 KT SSELY LLJ NOW EVIDENT IN MAF VWP AND JTN
   PROFILER.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM TO SUPPORT
   CURRENT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
   REGION...BASED ON 00Z DRT RAOB AND 850 MB ANALYSIS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC...WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ABOVE WRN PORTION OF
   OUTFLOW AIR MASS.
   
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH EWD
   EXTENT ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION.  WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW
   IN 500-700 MB LAYER WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEARS IN 20-35 KT RANGE.
   ALSO...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING CINH FROM MAF/LBB
   LONGITUDE EWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...
   
   31300378 31500407 31920405 32230386 32650305 33000220
   32790134 32330129 31430229 31120332 31150370

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS TO ERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232014Z - 232215Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF KS...OK/TX PANHANDLE...
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...ESPECIALLY POST DRYLINE WHERE LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES ARE
   NEAR DRY ADIABATIC.  IT APPEARS DRYLINE HAS MIXED AS FAR EAST AS IT
   WILL GO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN APPARENT NWWD MOISTURE SURGE NOW
   ADVECTING INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS IN THE
   LEE OF THE SRN CO ROCKIES.  STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT HAS AIDED
   HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING OVER SERN CO/SWRN
   KS...WHICH IS SPREADING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT.  THIS SPEED WOULD
   ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTERSECTION BY 21Z.
   ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG DRYLINE
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   34830182 36570138 37800086 39520128 39419944 35450020

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232212Z - 232345Z
   
   ERN KS AND SWRN MO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY RAPID
   SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
   
   WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN
   MO...APPEARS IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS NORTH OF A SLN-EMP-JLN LINE.
   PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH STRONG
   HEATING AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ARE EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
   UPPER RIDGE...WHILE NOT CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT...MAY BE ENHANCED BY
   APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS
   ACROSS NWRN KS ATTM. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
   FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
   
   AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE ZONE OF FORCING IS VERY UNSTABLE
   AND SHOULD FUEL INTENSE UPDRAFTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
   SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME
   WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST WLY FLOW OF
   40-50KT IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM
   ROTATION. SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THIS
   EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STORM INTERACTIONS LOCALLY
   REINFORCE HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENTS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND APPEAR
   POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED FROM ANY CELL TRACKING
   NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38149294 36919331 37339741 38869763 39519684 39149403
   38799317

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 232346Z - 240115Z
   
   ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...A CONDITIONAL
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS GIVEN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK
   VICINITY. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS PORTRAYS MODEST CU
   FIELD/FAILED ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE LUBBOCK
   VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MASS FIELDS ARE BETTER FOCUSED
   TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION...SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING IN
   VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE HAS LARGELY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY PER ADJUSTED RUC
   SOUNDINGS/18Z REESE RAOB. IN PRESENCE OF MODEST MASS
   CONVERGENCE...SOME WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT YET REMAINS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN
   INITIATION...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL
   SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
   THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. EVEN PROVIDED
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT DEVELOPMENT
   WOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...
   
   34260284 34560161 34280043 32610079 32850264

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240009Z - 240145Z
   
   TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY INCREASE FROM THE FRONT RANGE ENEWD ACROSS NERN
   CO THIS EVENING.
   
   STRONG FRONTAL SURGE AND DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
   POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FUEL A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIATION ON THE FRONT RANGE HAS
   BEGUN WITH HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED IN THE DENVER AREA. GIVEN
   STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF
   FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE
   CYCLONE AND SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN KS...FEATURES
   APPEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   REGION. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING
   LAYER WILL FURTHER PROMOTE STORM INTENSITY WITH HAIL APPEARING TO BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   39050316 38890428 38940503 39200523 39600527 40180497
   40560425 40750370 40810322 40740290 40640268 40510233
   40210214 39920209 39640204 39320203

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...
   
   VALID 240058Z - 240230Z
   
   ISOLATED CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS INTO WRN MO. BASED ON LATEST SOUNDING
   INFORMATION FROM SGF AND TOP...MODIFIED FOR ESTIMATED ENVIRONMENTAL
   CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE
   INCREASING.
   
   RECENT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT IN OTTAWA AND MORRIS
   COUNTIES HAS OCCURRED ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WHERE SOUNDING AND
   PROFILER DATA SUGGEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (SRH) MAY BE QUITE
   HIGH. BASED ON PROXIMITY RAOB AND PROFILER DATA...0-1KM SRH WAS
   CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT OVER 150 M2/S2...WHILE 0-3KM SRH MAY BE AS
   HIGH AS 400 M2/S2 FOR 300/12KT CELL MOTION. IN ADDITION TO
   RELATIVELY LOW LFC OF AROUND 1-2KM NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS WOULD
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND
   PERHAPS TORNADO FORMATION FOR UPDRAFTS REMAINING NEAR THE FRONTAL
   ZONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   37759380 38229621 38669810 39219836 39319755 38939604
   38479444 38359385 38249336 37799314

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS...NWRN OK...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239...
   
   VALID 240226Z - 240330Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WAS DECREASING ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   239 AT THIS HOUR. DRY LINE WAS RETREATING NWWD ACROSS THE WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE PNHDLS AS LEE-SIDE LOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER
   SERN CO. LATEST RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATED THE THREAT FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WATCH 239 REGION SHOULD REMAIN LOW
   FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE
   ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   37759380 38229621 38669810 39219836 39319755 38939604
   38479444 38359385 38249336 37799314

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...
   
   VALID 240247Z - 240415Z
   
   ...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SERN KS...
   
   EXPECT LINEAR MCS WITH MESOCYCLONIC COMMA-HEAD COMPLEX TO CONTINUE
   MOVING EAST AT UP TO 50KT ACROSS SERN KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS LYON...COFFEY...GREENWOOD...AND WOODSON
   COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND A HALF. ACTIVITY MAY THEN MERGE WITH
   OTHER INTENSE STORMS FORMING NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT FROM ALLEN
   AND ANDERSON COUNTIES IN EXTREME SERN KS...TO VERNON...ST.
   CLAIR...CEDAR...AND HICKORY COUNTIES IN WRN MO.
   
   ANOTHER INTENSE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL STORM WAS CROSSING THE
   LAWRENCE KS AREA. IN ADDITION TO TORNADO POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS FROM THIS CELL... VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   37759380 38229621 38669810 39219836 39319755 38939604
   38479444 38359385 38249336 37799314

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1010 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN NEB...NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240310Z - 240445Z
   
   THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
   SHOULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL MCS ACROSS THE NWRN KS/SWRN
   NEB BORDER AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
   39100023 39670288 41040228 40469964

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL-NERN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240627Z - 240830Z
   
   TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON BOTH SIDES OF KS/OK
   BORDER...N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY MCS THAT NOW IS
   DECAYING OVER SRN MO.  MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL.  GUST
   POTENTIAL BECOMES LARGER WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH DISCUSSION
   AREA...AND PROXIMITY TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED
   IN WOODWARD COUNTY OK AT 540Z.
   
   6Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN DELAWARE COUNTY
   OK SWWD TO LINCOLN COUNTY...THEN NWWD ACROSS LOGAN/GARFIELD COUNTIES
   TO VICINITY NRN MAJOR/EXTREME SERN WOODS COUNTY.  BOUNDARY WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z.
   HOWEVER...IT SHOULD STALL SOON FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NWWD TO NEAR
   END...AND ALREADY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FARTHER W.  BAND OF
   TSTMS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM PORTIONS PRATT COUNTY KS SWD
   TO WRN MAJOR COUNTY OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ALONG BOTH
   SIDES KS/OK BORDER.  ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM
   STAFFORD COUNTY KS SEWD TO KAY COUNTY OK...IN ZONE OF 850 MB WIND
   SHIFT AND APPARENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAX.
   
   MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IN
   REGIME OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AIDED BY 40-50 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN
   VWP DATA.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   APCHG 9 DEG C/KM...ALONG WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 13.5-15 DEG
   C...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG ROOTED AT TOP OF
   OUTFLOW AIR...WHICH DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT.  30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...MAINLY
   MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.  STRONG CINH EVIDENT S OF OUTFLOW AIR
   MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SWD PROPAGATION/BACKBUILDING OF
   THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   36119939 36709876 37319883 38249896 38399866 38339652
   38069545 37599495 36769520 36259635 36199874