Texas Spring 2022

[Cpv17]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

Neither the Euro or GFS look that good for most of southeast TX.

[captainbarbossa19]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

Neither the Euro or GFS look that good for most of southeast TX.

Fortunately, the end of the Euro run is the beginning of May. Still a lot of time to determine the fate of our summer weather.

I was doing some research on the April drought years that was posted earlier. I realized that this year appears to be most similar to 2006. I looked at the NWS Lake Charles climate data, and it showed that January to April that year only averaged about 1-2 inches per month at the Beaumont/Port Arthur location. That is well below normal rainfall. Interestingly, things turned much wetter in May that year with over 5 inches recorded. The majority of the summer was wet too. One difference though was that ENSO was coming out of a La Niña in 2006, while we are still in it. It remains to be seen what implications this will have. https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann06.txt

Also, take a look at the latest drought map and the one from April 2006? Look familiar?

[bubba hotep]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

Below temp / Above precip May & June

July and August iffy but not a slam dunk Above temp / Below precip

[Ntxw]

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

Neither the Euro or GFS look that good for most of southeast TX.

Fortunately, the end of the Euro run is the beginning of May. Still a lot of time to determine the fate of our summer weather.

I was doing some research on the April drought years that was posted earlier. I realized that this year appears to be most similar to 2006. I looked at the NWS Lake Charles climate data, and it showed that January to April that year only averaged about 1-2 inches per month at the Beaumont/Port Arthur location. That is well below normal rainfall. Interestingly, things turned much wetter in May that year with over 5 inches recorded. The majority of the summer was wet too. One difference though was that ENSO was coming out of a La Niña in 2006, while we are still in it. It remains to be seen what implications this will have. https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann06.txt

Also, take a look at the latest drought map and the one from April 2006? Look familiar?

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20060418/20060418_tx_text.png
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220419/20220419_tx_text.png

For the northern half of the state 2006 was a hot summer. Top 10 for DFW (9th) and had the third highest 100+ days of the 21st century behind 2000 and 2011. 2006 followed the dry 2005 year (5th driest all time) for DFW. For the northwestern and western half of the state either way you slice it the analogs and current drought is not favorable however one wants to take it.

[captainbarbossa19]

Neither the Euro or GFS look that good for most of southeast TX.

Fortunately, the end of the Euro run is the beginning of May. Still a lot of time to determine the fate of our summer weather.

I was doing some research on the April drought years that was posted earlier. I realized that this year appears to be most similar to 2006. I looked at the NWS Lake Charles climate data, and it showed that January to April that year only averaged about 1-2 inches per month at the Beaumont/Port Arthur location. That is well below normal rainfall. Interestingly, things turned much wetter in May that year with over 5 inches recorded. The majority of the summer was wet too. One difference though was that ENSO was coming out of a La Niña in 2006, while we are still in it. It remains to be seen what implications this will have. https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann06.txt

Also, take a look at the latest drought map and the one from April 2006? Look familiar?

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20060418/20060418_tx_text.png
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220419/20220419_tx_text.png

For the northern half of the state 2006 was a hot summer. Top 10 for DFW (9th) and had the third highest 100+ days of the 21st century behind 2000 and 2011. 2006 followed the dry 2005 year (5th driest all time) for DFW. For the northwestern and western half of the state either way you slice it the analogs and current drought is not favorable however one wants to take it.

Well, fortunately, ENSO does not stay the same forever! Eventually, we will shift towards a neutral state. I suspect we may be back to neutral by the new year (hopefully). I am ready for more active springs again like 2016.

[DallasAg]

Fortunately, the end of the Euro run is the beginning of May. Still a lot of time to determine the fate of our summer weather.

I was doing some research on the April drought years that was posted earlier. I realized that this year appears to be most similar to 2006. I looked at the NWS Lake Charles climate data, and it showed that January to April that year only averaged about 1-2 inches per month at the Beaumont/Port Arthur location. That is well below normal rainfall. Interestingly, things turned much wetter in May that year with over 5 inches recorded. The majority of the summer was wet too. One difference though was that ENSO was coming out of a La Niña in 2006, while we are still in it. It remains to be seen what implications this will have. https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann06.txt

Also, take a look at the latest drought map and the one from April 2006? Look familiar?

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20060418/20060418_tx_text.png
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220419/20220419_tx_text.png

For the northern half of the state 2006 was a hot summer. Top 10 for DFW (9th) and had the third highest 100+ days of the 21st century behind 2000 and 2011. 2006 followed the dry 2005 year (5th driest all time) for DFW. For the northwestern and western half of the state either way you slice it the analogs and current drought is not favorable however one wants to take it.

Well, fortunately, ENSO does not stay the same forever! Eventually, we will shift towards a neutral state. I suspect we may be back to neutral by the new year (hopefully). I am ready for more active springs again like 2016.

Here's hoping. It's discouraging when each monthly El Nino update seems to extend the La Nina further and further. The update last week has us in La Nina through the summer with a 50-55% chance it'll continue through the fall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Quixotic]

If areas have exceptional drought five times in the past twenty years, is it really exceptional?

[Ntxw]

If areas have exceptional drought five times in the past twenty years, is it really exceptional?

Explosive population growth the past 20 years, each drought is going to hurt a little more if it goes hydrological. DFW has nearly doubled population since 2000.

[Ntxw]

For the northern half of the state 2006 was a hot summer. Top 10 for DFW (9th) and had the third highest 100+ days of the 21st century behind 2000 and 2011. 2006 followed the dry 2005 year (5th driest all time) for DFW. For the northwestern and western half of the state either way you slice it the analogs and current drought is not favorable however one wants to take it.

Well, fortunately, ENSO does not stay the same forever! Eventually, we will shift towards a neutral state. I suspect we may be back to neutral by the new year (hopefully). I am ready for more active springs again like 2016.

Here's hoping. It's discouraging when each monthly El Nino update seems to extend the La Nina further and further. The update last week has us in La Nina through the summer with a 50-55% chance it'll continue through the fall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Eventually it will go Nino, maybe 2023. ENSO is self terminate so the longer the Nina state goes eventually it will make a hard turn rather than slow one. The next Nino event quite possibly be moderate or strong in strength if history is to go by. All droughts end in flood, but could be a long walk there however.

[Iceresistance]

Well, fortunately, ENSO does not stay the same forever! Eventually, we will shift towards a neutral state. I suspect we may be back to neutral by the new year (hopefully). I am ready for more active springs again like 2016.

Here's hoping. It's discouraging when each monthly El Nino update seems to extend the La Nina further and further. The update last week has us in La Nina through the summer with a 50-55% chance it'll continue through the fall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Eventually it will go Nino, maybe 2023. ENSO is self terminate so the longer the Nina state goes eventually it will make a hard turn rather than slow one. The next Nino event quite possibly be moderate or strong in strength if history is to go by. All droughts end in flood, but could be a long walk there however.

The CPC now has a Slight Risk of way above (Much above) normal Temperatures to end April.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS and Euro basically have holes of very little QPF over varying parts of DFW. Much prefer the area-wide rain showed on the Canadian or UKMET, which isn't what you want to have to hope for...That said, these depictions aren't perfect, so I think there will be more rain than it says in the dry areas. But, yikes. Can't seem to catch a break.

[Ntxw]

GFS and Euro basically have holes of very little QPF over varying parts of DFW. Much prefer the area-wide rain showed on the Canadian or UKMET, which isn't what you want to have to hope for...That said, these depictions aren't perfect, so I think there will be more rain than it says in the dry areas. But, yikes. Can't seem to catch a break.

On average I think 1" is a good starting point. More the further west and northwest you go. It'll spare a few days of having to water. Depends on the boundary for training, dewpoints good so far been around for days. This is important metric for qpf, not just how high dp's get but duration of quality moisture return.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS and Euro basically have holes of very little QPF over varying parts of DFW. Much prefer the area-wide rain showed on the Canadian or UKMET, which isn't what you want to have to hope for...That said, these depictions aren't perfect, so I think there will be more rain than it says in the dry areas. But, yikes. Can't seem to catch a break.

On average I think 1" is a good starting point. More the further west and northwest you go. It'll spare a few days of having to water. Depends on the boundary for training, dewpoints good so far been around for days. This is important metric for qpf, not just how high dp's get but duration of quality moisture return.

I think I will get about an inch to an inch and a half, which would be the most rain in a long time....more if the more impressive totals shift closer to DFW. The most rain I have had this year was one rainfall of exactly an inch.

[Brent]

The humidity the last couple days up here has been quite lovely first time of the year

[rwfromkansas]

Evan Andrews says oops, DFW may not get much. Ugh.

[Iceresistance]

The humidity the last couple days up here has been quite lovely first time of the year

I know! The Dew Points are in the 60s due to uninterrupted moisture flow.

[Iceresistance]

The SOI will not stop increasing, even if there was a Pressure crash (2 hPa in 1 day) in Tahiti just yesterday.

[Iceresistance]

I'm now expecting 2-4 inches of rain by Sunday.

12z HRRR has 3 Waves of storms, 2 are Supercell waves, & the 3rd wave is highly dependent on when and where the Boundary stalls as it's the training effect.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS and Euro look good for DFW. So does the NAM. For the HRRR, it sets the rain up too far west/north. Hopefully, it's wrong. Much of DFW wouldn't get anything under the HRRR. The WRF-ARW would be best for DFW. Widespread 2-3 inches.

[Ntxw]

GFS and Euro look good for DFW. So does the NAM. For the HRRR, it sets the rain up too far west/north. Hopefully, it's wrong. Much of DFW wouldn't get anything under the HRRR. The WRF-ARW would be best for DFW. Widespread 2-3 inches.

Climo favors eastern shift/overperform. W/NW areas in this set up kind of benefits from the initial slowdown of the upper level features so qpf that fires up trains over similar areas. Once they congeal though they become very efficient rainfall producers which is often why east-plexers averages more rain than west-plexers. Lets hope it happens again. Just like in winter you want to be north of the freezing line, in spring you want to be east of the boundaries.