Texas Fall 2023

[Itryatgolf]

Often times at this range, the models will overdue the +PNA.

Yeah I mean nothing is guaranteed but I'm pretty sure other cold snaps went east of us at some point only to shift back for verification. It always seems like there's a point like this where it doesn't look so good

Now it's always possible everyone is jinxing it and it won't be cold at all

Brent, I just hope we have a few winter weather opportunities in winter because yes it can happen in fall, but not often. Not many I remember

[Cpv17]

Often times at this range, the models will overdue the +PNA.

Yeah I mean nothing is guaranteed but I'm pretty sure other cold snaps went east of us at some point only to shift back for verification. It always seems like there's a point like this where it doesn't look so good

Now it's always possible everyone is jinxing it and it won't be cold at all

It’s like in the tropics, the models almost always want to recurve storms before correcting back west.

[Brent]

Often times at this range, the models will overdue the +PNA.

Yeah I mean nothing is guaranteed but I'm pretty sure other cold snaps went east of us at some point only to shift back for verification. It always seems like there's a point like this where it doesn't look so good

Now it's always possible everyone is jinxing it and it won't be cold at all

Brent, I just hope we have a few winter weather opportunities in winter because yes it can happen in fall, but not often. Not many I remember

Honestly man I don't know what to expect. I mean even our worst winters here usually have something but the analogs are all over the place

[tajmahal]

That is incorrect, the global models are not in agreement on where the cold air goes, GFS brings it straight down into texas all the way to mexico, Euro is a little more east, but texas still gets in on the action, CMC east but still a glancing blow for texas, i expect the whole state to have a chilly thanksgiving

I am looking at the 12z Ensemble guidance and they all say from texas- east bound will be below normal for a while
With the 18z GFS run coming in, it definitely has a far different opinion on the cold air and where it goes

Read the link in my previous post should you want an explanation.

Below normal does not necessarily mean Arctic air.

The ensemble mean temperature forecasts speak for themselves.

[starsfan65]

That is incorrect, the global models are not in agreement on where the cold air goes, GFS brings it straight down into texas all the way to mexico, Euro is a little more east, but texas still gets in on the action, CMC east but still a glancing blow for texas, i expect the whole state to have a chilly thanksgiving

I am looking at the 12z Ensemble guidance and they all say from texas- east bound will be below normal for a while
With the 18z GFS run coming in, it definitely has a far different opinion on the cold air and where it goes

Read the link in my previous post should you want an explanation.

Below normal does not necessarily mean Arctic air.

The ensemble mean temperature forecasts speak for themselves.

Does it still mean cold?

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 yes it still means cold, many places in texas will be lucky to get out of the 40’s for highs, nothing extreme but definitely not a warm thanksgiving either

[starsfan65]

starsfan65 yes it still means cold, many places in texas will be lucky to get out of the 40’s for highs, nothing extreme but definitely not a warm thanksgiving either

Thanks Stratton
There has been some predictions that the front could make it here Thanksgiving Day or night.

[Ntxw]

starsfan65 yes it still means cold, many places in texas will be lucky to get out of the 40’s for highs, nothing extreme but definitely not a warm thanksgiving either

Thanks Stratton
There has been some predictions that the front could make it here Thanksgiving Day or night.

There are two features. A Pacific storm that will drag some colder air just before TG. The holiday itself as it stands is in-between before the more colder air mass associated with AK blocking comes down. Once that storm passes, the jet buckles.

[tajmahal]

Some ensemble mean temperature forecasts for November 28:

.GEFS......EPS
57–33...59–35...Amarillo
60–43...61–44...Austin Camp Mabry
69–60...69–56...Brownsville
36–24...38–28...Casper
37–29...38–29...Chicago
56–41...58–40...Dallas
46–25...51–24...Denver
64–49...62–46...Houston
51–36...53–35...Tulsa
B18–B22...B18–B23...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia
14–10...09–05...Yellowknife, Yukon, Canada

[Brent]

I won't say Thanksgiving is gonna be cold but it's certainly not gonna be that warm either. It does appear the coldest air however cold that is remains to be seen would be just after Thanksgiving into that weekend

[starsfan65]

I won't say Thanksgiving is gonna be cold but it's certainly not gonna be that warm either. It does appear the coldest air however cold that is remains to be seen would be just after Thanksgiving into that weekend

In Between for Thanksgiving Day?

[Stratton23]

Overnight model guidance has trended weaker with the +PNA, big shift west with the cold on the CMC, and its significantly colder on this run at least in the northwrn states

[starsfan65]

Overnight model guidance has trended weaker with the +PNA, big shift west with the cold on the CMC, and its significantly colder on this run at least in the northwrn states

Very cold here in the Southern Plains.

[Stratton23]

Holy smokes thats a Very cold GFS run!

[starsfan65]

Holy smokes thats a Very cold GFS run!

Very cold ruin indeed!!!! Let's see if this verifies.

[JayDT]

Wow the 0z GFS is definitely a fun one Cold and a bit of winter weather.. That would be great if it verified

[tajmahal]

Deterministic models are unreliable with this amount of lead time. Ensembles are our friends.

[bubba hotep]

You can see signs of the PNA adjustment that Ntxw mentioned yesterday in the overnight ensembles. The warmup over the weekend after Thanksgiving was stunted on the 00z runs; if that trend continues, then we will probably see a longer stretch of cooler weather vs. the yo-yo cool down/warm up cycle.

[Iceresistance]

Surprise!


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/SRNMz.gif

[Iceresistance]

I made these two maps, had to find an image for the Oklahoma map as a base. This is for the 12z GFS

Frontal position. (Green line is the Dry Line)

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRN1W.gif

Shear Direction

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRN1g.png


I am currently thinking that this will be a Low CAPE, but high shear environment for storm activity.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.