MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN KS...NERN CO...SWRN NEB.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...
   
   VALID 240705Z - 240830Z
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW OVER SERN CO...SE OF STRONG
   BARRIER-FLOW SURGE OF RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE SFC AIR.  FALLING
   PRESSURES IN LEE-SIDE COLD SURGE INDICATE IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER NEXT
   FEW HOURS...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED BAROCLINICITY IS EVIDENT FROM SFC LOW
   NNEWD INTO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SWRN NEB. UPSTREAM 850
   MB FLOW IS VEERING WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE
   ASCENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEB.  PER COORDINATION
   W/LBF...CHASE/HAYES/FRONTIER COUNTIES ARE BEING CLEARED FROM WW.
   GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN ORIGINAL WW...REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY
   BE CANCELLED AND/OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   39409960 38950035 38780174 39040233 40350207 40850109
   40799982 40479942

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241232Z - 241400Z
   
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS KS/OK BORDER
   REGION...AND MAY PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD I-35 CORRIDOR N OF OKC GIVEN
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR FSM WNWWD
   THROUGH LOGAN...KINGFISHER...WOODWARD COUNTIES OK...DRIFTING NWD W
   OF I-35.  REINFORCING OUTFLOW AIR EXTENDS FROM NERN OK/NWRN AR
   CONVECTION WNWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN OSAGE COUNTY TO GRANT
   COUNTY...WITH WHICH ONE STORM IS INTERACTING AND SHOWING SOME
   EVIDENCE OF ROTATION ALOFT.  OTHER TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM
   ICT AREA SSWWD THROUGH KINGFISHER COUNTY OK.  IR IMAGERY AND
   REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE LINE MAY SOLIDIFY SSWWD INTO CANADIAN
   COUNTY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL
   OK AND S-CENTRAL KS...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   STORM ROTATION AND ENHANCED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  35-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS EVIDENT...DEPENDING ON CHOSEN LIFTED LAYER...WITH
   PARCELS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB.  FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT OF ELEVATED WAA AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9
   DEG C/KM...YIELDS ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...BASED ON
   MODIFIED RAOB DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   35879803 36689762 37499742 38029749 38249658 38249602
   38109526 37769501 36829516 35599656 35689766

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS INTO NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...
   
   VALID 241608Z - 241745Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS OR SO ACROSS NERN OK AS STORMS DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER NERN OK INTO
   SERN KS N OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
   FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO NWRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT CONTRIBUTED
   TO STRONG LIFT N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
   OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND MOST OF THE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
   DISSIPATED. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A CLUSTER OF
   STORMS OVER NERN OK THAT APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING SWD ALONG THE
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEW CELLS ARE ALSO
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE CONVECTION AT THE
   INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE ATMOSPHERE SW OF THIS
   ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RAISES UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE STORMS
   WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND
   THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS ON THE SWRN FLANKS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   35759685 36619774 37149691 37149529 36059510

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL THROUGH NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241813Z - 242015Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A CORRIDOR FROM SWRN KS SWD
   INTO W CNTRL AND POSSIBLY SWRN OK BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN OK WWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN
   NWRN OK. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL
   OK NWWD INTO NWRN OK. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
   EXTREME WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD
   THROUGH SWRN KS AND FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN NWRN OK SWWD THROUGH THE
   TX PANHANDLE.
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE.
   AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG
   THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS.
   AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED A
   LITTLE FARTHER SWD ACROSS W CNTRL OR SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   THIS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO SLY OVER
   CNTRL AND W CNTRL OK AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. RECENT VWP DATA HAS SHOWN
   THE FLOW IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER HAS BACKED DURING THE PAST HOUR
   ACROSS CNTRL OK. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NEAR
   THE TRIPLE POINT IN NWRN OK SWD THROUGH WRN OK ALONG AND E OF THE
   DRYLINE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
   POINT OVER NWRN OK AND SWRN KS AND SWD SOME DISTANCE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ADVANCES EWD. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. BEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS
   OF NWRN AND CNTRL OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
   OPPORTUNITY TO INTERACT WITH MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   34919704 34509864 35769893 37059962 37419964 37489874
   36539756 35749685

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243...
   
   VALID 241914Z - 242015Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH ERN OK INTO
   NRN AND CNTRL AR NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO WRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN AR
   CONTINUES SEWD. THE LINE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NWRN AR AND ERN OK HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT ALONG WITH WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS THROUGH ERN OK NRN AR
   NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35849585 36519407 36319102 34579194 34799514

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...
   
   VALID 242009Z - 242115Z
   
   THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL OK NEXT
   FEW HOURS.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN OK
   NWWD THROUGH NWRN OK JUST S OF ENID TO E OF WOODWARD. WRN PART OF
   THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN OK IS SLOWING AND IS IN THE
   PROCESS OF MODIFYING WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
   OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. STORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR ENID. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY
   OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE NEWD OVER THE BOUNDARY WHERE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   35899733 36179840 36989886 36699754

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO FAR WESTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242018Z - 242215Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL /WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL/ IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN
   KS...AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
   CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEB/WESTERN MO...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BOTH IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
   ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM WEST CENTRAL KS INTO WEST CENTRAL
   IA...BUT ALSO WITH WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL ACROSS
   EASTERN KS VIA EARLY DAY CONVECTION. WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE CONVECTION APPEARS
   LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ACCORDINGLY...ELEVATED
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD
   OF LARGE HAIL. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PORTRAY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE/STRONG CLOUD
   BEARING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38989797 39429786 40229640 39479415 38339390 37949573
   38399728

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242229Z - 250030Z
   
   MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL TX...A CONDITIONAL
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL EXISTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ALTHOUGH REGION IS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF PRIMARY BACKGROUND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT/STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL TX
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAS
   BEEN MODEST THUS FAR...VISIBLE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
   FEATURES ISOLATED POCKETS OF MORE AGGRESSIVE CU...PERHAPS TIED TO A
   SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   
   ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IS VIRTUALLY NIL IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL TX...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR ALTUS OK/WEST OF
   WICHITA FALLS TX...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND JUNCTION TX. WEST OF THE
   DRYLINE...DEEPLY MIXED PLUME WITH LOW TO MID 90S F TEMPERATURES IS
   IMPINGING UPON DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
   TX...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE
   IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
   
   OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE JAYTON TX PROFILER CAPTURE MODEST INCREASE IN
   MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
   SOUTHWESTLY WINDS NOTED IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER AND ABOVE. GIVEN THE
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/ADEQUATE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
   PROVIDED CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
   A SEVERE WATCH MAY BE PRUDENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF
   CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
   INCREASES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   30839846 30309926 30640019 31279972 32039927 32599920
   34109902 33859780 33279748 32009760 31449794

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN OK AND MUCH OF NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245...
   
   VALID 242308Z - 250015Z
   
   LARGE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT ABOUT 30KT ACROSS NCNTRL AND
   CNTRL AR THIS EVENING. OVERALL VIL AND REFLECTIVITY TRENDS APPEAR TO
   SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. HOWEVER...A
   WELL-DEFINED SMALL SCALE BOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE ARC OF DEEP
   CONVECTION FROM SHARP TO WHITE COUNTIES...WILL MOVE ACROSS
   INDEPENDENCE COUNTY AND NRN WHITE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN
   STRONG MESOSCALE COLD POOL...WARM...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   AHEAD OF THIS PORTION OF THE MCS...SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL
   WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO ERN PARTS OF WW 245 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   FROM LITTLE ROCK AREA WWD ALONG THE SLOWER MOVING SEGMENT OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ONLY WEAK UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS. DESPITE STRONGER UPSTREAM INSTABILITY FEEDING
   ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA...INHIBITION AND LESS FAVORABLE
   LARGE SCALE FORCING ARE LIKELY LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
   TIME BEING. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
   ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
   COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   34559145 34399356 34289438 34599498 35069484 35009377
   35499266 35929235 36489210 36509087

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...
   
   VALID 242317Z - 250045Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 244 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
   SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK...FROM EAST OF WICHITA KS TO
   NEAR STILLWATER OK. MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD RESIDUAL COLD POOL
   INTO SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK.
   
   PRIMARY TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 244 SEEMINGLY REMAINS
   WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK...ROUGHLY FROM
   NEAR ALVA/ENID OK TO JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO AREA.
   
   IN SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OK...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING ACROSS CADDO/COMANCHE/TILLMAN COUNTIES AS OF 2310Z. VERY
   MOIST/UNCAPPED AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS INTO
   CENTRAL OK...THUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT/SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION
   APPEARS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR
   AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. IN
   ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE
   PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK. ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE
   HAIL...MODESTLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER ADJUSTED TLX
   WSR-88D VAD IS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/POTENTIAL
   TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY/MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OK.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   37629849 37919818 38159753 37789660 36619637 35639671
   34429702 34159790 34359880 35509895 36759870 37269863

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...246...
   
   VALID 250127Z - 250200Z
   
   INTENSE SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL/NERN OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   TO POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO. A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING PORTIONS OF WW 244 AND
   WW 246 ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN OK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS...FROM OSAGE
   COUNTY AND TULSA AREA SWWD ACROSS OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AND POINTS
   SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORM ROTATION GIVEN
   ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR. ACTIVITY CROSSING THE
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN OK APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
   UPSCALE AND INTO A LARGER MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   DEVELOPING INTO THE TULSA AREA INCREASING. OTHER STORMS...AHEAD OF
   THE DRYLINE...REMAIN DISCRETE AND LONG-LIVED WITH OCCASIONAL
   MESOCYCLONES CONTINUING TO APPEAR IN SRM LOOPS FROM AREA RADAR. A
   CONTINUING THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES
   WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD AT 15-20KT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   34109696 34159908 35099927 35019840 36189865 37109819
   38349798 38319722 37269672 36639653 35209664

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TO NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 247...
   
   VALID 250330Z - 250500Z
   
   EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS OVER NERN OK TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
   ACTIVITY INGESTS GREATER STABILITY ON THE COOL SIDE OF RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT UP TO 35KT IN SOME
   AREAS SO A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST
   ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
   
   A FEW INTENSE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
   REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF OKC AREA. IN ADDITION TO
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES...ADDITIONAL
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EAST
   TOWARD I35/I44. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS VERY
   UNSTABLE AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   34009797 34129837 35779684 36469661 37029640 36669588
   36589532 36659463 35429439 35059490 34989554 34659550
   34189576 33889659 33819713 33879798

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN AR.
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 250603Z - 250800Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWRN AR COMPLEX...THEREFORE
   ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM IN ITS PROJECTED PATH. 
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON
   MCS -- FROM NEAR PBF WNWWD ACROSS LATIMER/PUSHMATAHA COUNTY LINE.
   LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING ESEWD 40-45 KT ACROSS NERN AR -- IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS
   CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AR AND WEAKEN.  ITS OWN OUTFLOW ALREADY HAS SURGED
   10-20 NM AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES...AS
   EVIDENT IN ANIMATED REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM FSM.  THERE MAY STILL
   BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- BUT CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAK STRUCTURES -- ALONG WITH
   INTERMITTENT/MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN LAYER OF
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY ATOP OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELEVATED MUCAPES
   DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG OK/AR BORDER...TO LESS THAN
   500 J/KG FROM LIT EWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
   
   35119441 35509353 35989313 36389287 36179142 35779098
   34799158 34559302 34909414

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...NE TX...SWRN AR.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 247...
   
   VALID 250611Z - 250715Z
   
   ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WITH TSTM CLUSTER EVIDENT AT
   545Z OVER PORTIONS COAL/SRN PITTSBURG/NWRN ATOKA COUNTIES.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS SERN OK WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
   BACKBUILD TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE ENTERING AR.  REPLACEMENT
   WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON
   MCS -- FROM NEAR PBF WNWWD ACROSS LATIMER/PUSHMATAHA COUNTY LINE.
   SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM TUL AREA SWWD ACROSS GARVIN
   COUNTY...THEN NEAR SPS.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD 10-20 KT.
    AXIS OF MAX 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD WITH
   VEERING LLJ TOWARD CHOCTAW/MCCURTAIN COUNTIES...IN AGREEMENT WITH
   CORFIDI-MCS MOTION VECTORS INDICATING SLOW TRACK THAT WAY.  EXPECT
   INFLOW LAYER FOR SERN OK COMPLEX TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   ELEVATED AGL THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND RUC SOUNDING DATA INDICATES SOME PARCELS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN
   OK -- AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY S-SW OF ONGOING ACTIVITY --
   REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED.
   
   ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER NW AND N IN WW 247 MAY PRODUCE OCNL
   HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...BUT NOT TORNADOES BECAUSE OF ITS MORE
   ELEVATED/DISORGANIZED CHARACTER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34409695 35529627 35689554 35399462 35239419 34979404
   34599396 34449393 34229406 33849424 33539468 33489512
   33469583 33609655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...S-CENTRAL/SERN
   OK...SWRN-CENTRAL AR.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248...
   
   VALID 250957Z - 251200Z
   
   CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   DIMINISHING SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER WW AREA...AND ALSO...WITH EWD
   EXTENT ACROSS AR AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS. ACCORDINGLY...PORTIONS WW
   MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 12Z EXPIRATION.  MEANWHILE...WW
   SHOULD BE CLEARED BEHIND FROPA.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT AT 930Z FROM JACK/COOKE COUNTIES
   TX NEWD THROUGH HUGHES COUNTY OK...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER N AMIDST
   BLEND OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO
   STABILIZE BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM W-E AND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
   LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE...MCS HAS EXITED
   ERN PORTIONS WW...AND REMAINS LARGELY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT
   MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AR ATTM.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG MERIDIONAL GRADIENT IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AR. COMPLEX SOON WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT
   MUCH MORE HOSTILE FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION WITH MUCAPES
   DROPPING BELOW 500 J/KG.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP OVER ITS OWN OUTFLOW POOL OVER SERN OK...HOWEVER THIS AIR
   MASS WILL CONTAIN MORE ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER WITH WEAKER CAPE THAN
   WAS AVAILABLE TO INITIAL ACTIVITY.  STRONGER MUCAPE -- UP TO 2500
   J/KG -- REMAINS E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...OVER RED RIVER REGION OF SERN OK/NERN TX.  STRENGTHENING
   CAPPING WITH SWD EXTENT...AND WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 25 KT OR LESS
   OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...LEND CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT FURTHER
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34699535 34459378 34769305 35129294 35089187 34429168
   33679222 33359530 33689719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251542Z - 251745Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY...PERHAPS BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER....ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IS EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
   MIGRATING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT.  THIS FEATURE IS ON
   SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATELY STRONG CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT
   ACCELERATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...FORCING IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
   AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE.
   
   ONGOING ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF BOWLING GREEN SHORTLY.  AND...A GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS INFLOW FROM A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS THE LEXINGTON/LONDON/SOMERSET AREAS STRENGTHENS BY
   18-19Z.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...AIDED BY BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
   HAIL...BUT WITH CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...PEAK HAIL SIZES
   MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   37718582 38328513 38538426 38528328 38328240 37728197
   36908231 36018339 35948465 35918570 36488624 37028604
   37348591

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251607Z - 251730Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ADVANCING
   SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
   HAS YET TO BECOME FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH AND
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  MOST VIGOROUS STORMS THROUGH 17-18Z SEEM LIKELY TO
   EVOLVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
   EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.  AS CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED...CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH
   FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
   LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   31049638 31759549 32359444 31919290 31979098 31939035
   30818971 30118995 29889167 30029335 29899501 30159642

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251835Z - 252030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 21-23Z. A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING CAP
   ACROSS S-CNTRL TX ALONG A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR DRT NEWD TO
   SAT AND CLL. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN AGITATED CUMULUS ALONG THE
   FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
   IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH JUST N
   OF IAH. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...THE FRONT
   SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER REGION AND THEN NEWD WITH TIME.
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MLCAPES OF 3000 TO 4000
   J/KG...ALTHOUGH SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOW AND MOST OF THE MID-LEVELS
   IS FAIRLY WEAK. MODEST WLY FLOW FROM 500 MB AND ABOVE WILL SUPPORT
   STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   29310086 29530088 29799967 30049797 30599653 30509541
   29409480 28729560 27669772 27569961

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251925Z - 252130Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
   INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS STILL
   EXPECTED...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   AREA OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES
   TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS
   THIS FEATURE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER
   CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  LACK OF
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION DUE TO RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY REMAIN THE CASE.
   
   HOWEVER...CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY PROBABLY WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION TO ONGOING ACTIVITY.  AND...A MORE
   ORGANIZED CLUSTER COULD SLOWLY EVOLVE IN 40+ KT MEAN FLOW LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  IF THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WEST
   VIRGINIA...WHERE DRIER BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...
   
   38498313 38548273 38728188 39128048 38487975 38017971
   37108027 36528188 36288303 36158406 36528482 37408384
   37948348

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR..PARTS OF WRN KY/TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252011Z - 252115Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED
   WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS TO
   BE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED IN LINGERING MOIST
   LAYER ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
   BORDER AREA SEEMS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
   AREA IS GENERALLY WEAKENING...BUT 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IN
   WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE CONFINED TO A
   RELATIVELY NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   36809202 36849127 36989060 37239021 37268948 37008893
   36388906 36028950 35859012 35819083 35969192 36179217