Texas Fall 2022

[vbhoutex]

As much as we still need rain in Houston, I would prefer to have some sunshine and warmth mixed in! We haven't been above 61f in 2 weeks with a few days never getting out of the 40s.s. Seems about a month early. Every time I think it is going to warm up some my hopes are dashed as I read the different forecasts I follow.

[rwfromkansas]

I will be in Abilene so if it can go more south and east I have some hope of seeing some flakes.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS is now showing a snowfall signal for my area on Black Friday!

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

My wife’s family used to have Thanksgiving in Lubbock. That’s ground zero looks like.

[Ntxw]

Snow is heavily reliant on upper dynamics cooling the column, heavy wet snow at 3-4k feet between Lubbock and Amarillo. Also need that elevation. If only there was a little more cold to work with for the lower terrain.

[bubba hotep]

DFW will likely bump above normal for yearly rainfall after this upcoming system. Crazy to think that drought talk was all the rage this summer. I wonder if we are seeing the impacts of the Tonga eruption in the global circulations? This was supposed to be a dry and warm Fall for N. Texas.

[Ntxw]

EPS late in the run, holy blocks! GEFS too.

[Ntxw]

DFW will likely bump above normal for yearly rainfall after this upcoming system. Crazy to think that drought talk was all the rage this summer. I wonder if we are seeing the impacts of the Tonga eruption in the global circulations? This was supposed to be a dry and warm Fall for N. Texas.

There has been some mixed signals between the Maritime Continent and South America. It's splitting the low freq signal from what would be normal La Nina configuration. One does have to wonder what Tonga did in the southern hemisphere.

[gpsnowman]

DFW will likely bump above normal for yearly rainfall after this upcoming system. Crazy to think that drought talk was all the rage this summer. I wonder if we are seeing the impacts of the Tonga eruption in the global circulations? This was supposed to be a dry and warm Fall for N. Texas.

Amazing since we were still well below normal even after the 10 incher we had in August. Let's get our rain above normal then have a frigid, snowy December shall we?

[South Texas Storms]

DFW will likely bump above normal for yearly rainfall after this upcoming system. Crazy to think that drought talk was all the rage this summer. I wonder if we are seeing the impacts of the Tonga eruption in the global circulations? This was supposed to be a dry and warm Fall for N. Texas.

DFW would be well below normal like the rest of the state if you take out that flooding event a few months ago. The background state unfortunately still favors drier than normal weather across the Southern Plains due to the 3rd year Nina.

[Iceresistance]

EPS late in the run, holy blocks! GEFS too.

We have a -EPO, -NAO, -PNA, and -AO (even though the AO is a little more positive compared to the EPO and NAO). Could we have a nasty December with that setup?

[Iceresistance]

The GIF name in the link says it all! The full potential is just shy of the forecast!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Its-Coming.png

[Cpv17]

EPS late in the run, holy blocks! GEFS too.

We have a -EPO, -NAO, -PNA, and -AO (even though the AO is a little more positive compared to the EPO and NAO). Could we have a nasty December with that setup?

Don’t like the -PNA. Will promote a stubborn SE ridge that would likely extend into Texas depending how negative the PNA actually is.

[Iceresistance]

EPS late in the run, holy blocks! GEFS too.

We have a -EPO, -NAO, -PNA, and -AO (even though the AO is a little more positive compared to the EPO and NAO). Could we have a nasty December with that setup?

Don’t like the -PNA. Will promote a stubborn SE ridge that would likely extend into Texas depending how negative the PNA actually is.

Well, it appears that the PNA will become strongly negative to start December, it favors the cold into the west. There is a chance that some of this cold will leak out into the Southern Plains like what the GFS has been showing. The GEFS does show the SE Ridge in December, but it's trending weaker and farther east right now.

[rwfromkansas]

It seems to me it’s rare for the trough to stay west. It likely would move east later in December.

[Iceresistance]

It seems to me it’s rare for the trough to stay west. It likely would move east later in December.

The Natural PNA in the 2nd and 3rd week of November helped me get the multiple days of snow on the 11th, 14th, and the 18th. -PNA favors the west, +PNA in the east, and a neutral favors us.

The circled portion is the PNA when I got the snow for those three days.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

[Brent]

It seems to me it’s rare for the trough to stay west. It likely would move east later in December.

The Natural PNA in the 2nd and 3rd week of November helped me get the multiple days of snow on the 11th, 14th, and the 18th. -PNA favors the west, +PNA in the east, and a neutral favors us.

The circled portion is the PNA when I got the snow for those three days.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.gefs.sprd2.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

I was gonna say isn't a -PNA how we get active weather here. I seem to remember in Dallas the only time it snowed was then it has to be just slightly though not strongly

[Cpv17]

It seems to me it’s rare for the trough to stay west. It likely would move east later in December.

The Natural PNA in the 2nd and 3rd week of November helped me get the multiple days of snow on the 11th, 14th, and the 18th. -PNA favors the west, +PNA in the east, and a neutral favors us.

The circled portion is the PNA when I got the snow for those three days.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.gefs.sprd2.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

I was gonna say isn't a -PNA how we get active weather here. I seem to remember in Dallas the only time it snowed was then it has to be just slightly though not strongly

A neutral PNA would be perfect for us.

[TropicalTundra]

12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east