Texas Spring-2015

[Shoshana]

You know the forecast is confusing when you post two different pictures of models... And have your Facebook fans vote which one they think will happen.

I know models are important, but don't meteorologists use other tools? Seems like the TV weather people are hooked on models.

If you're wondering, it's a meteorologist at KEYE. And either we will get a little rain tomorrow or we need to rent an ark.

[Rgv20]

Lets see how the short range models verify...

0z4kNAM Simulated Radar forecast a line of Thunderstorms ready to cross the river by mid morning tomorrow..


0zWRF Simulated Radar is more aggressive developing a squall line ready to cross the river early in the morning..

[Ntxw]

Lake Texoma is now a little over 14 feet above flood stage or roughly 631 ft above sea level. Only 7 ft away from matching 2007's flooding event there which happened in July. 7 feet may seem a lot but at the pace the lake is rising it wouldn't take much longer now.

MCS kind of collapsed overnight out west and was a dud but storms are popping up around here. Hit or miss. Lawns in Dallas and Rockwall counties should be getting some good rains. It's been a great year for gardeners, just plant and sit back, relax, and the skies does the work.

[gboudx]

Here's an article from the Dallas Morning News about the wet weather and lake levels. The article does include some statewide discussion as well.

[wxman57]

I'm ready for some hot, DRY weather...

An occasional thunderstorm every few days is fine, but 5-10 inches per month (or per day) is a bit much.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm ready for some hot, DRY weather...

An occasional thunderstorm every few days is fine, but 5-10 inches per month (or per day) is a bit much.

Need to move the 5-10 inches per month (or per day) to the Highland Lakes watershed. I was reading that to get those lakes back to capacity, we need multiple rain events like this past Wednesday. There was an online chat with meteorologist Bob Rose of LCRA by the Austin Statesman. He said we need "many, many more rain events of that magnitude to get the two lakes back to capacity. The rains were generally between 1 and 2 inches; we need widespread totals of at least 10 to 15 inches."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm ready for some hot, DRY weather...

An occasional thunderstorm every few days is fine, but 5-10 inches per month (or per day) is a bit much.

Need to move the 5-10 inches per month (or per day) to the Highland Lakes watershed. I was reading that to get those lakes back to capacity, we need multiple rain events like this past Wednesday. There was an online chat with meteorologist Bob Rose of LCRA by the Austin Statesman. He said we need "many, many more rain events of that magnitude to get the two lakes back to capacity. The rains were generally between 1 and 2 inches; we need widespread totals of at least 10 to 15 inches."

Problem is, it will likely get a couple REALLY big events to bring them close to normal. This type of pattern, its likely it could happen soon. Summer, im not so sure but till June, it could happen. With a true el nino expected to happen this winter, it should bring the lake up significantly, so maybe next year this time we could be at normal. I feel bad for all the residents on Travis.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies show rainfall across Texas to continue strong through the first two weeks of June. Not just a little but a lot above normal. Wettest area relative to normal across the states. Areas that have been rained on a lot are going to get much more.

Per ryan maue some members show in excess of 20 inches in the span of those 4 weeks for some

OLR anomalies show clear the hose from the central and eastern Pacific into Texas.

[WeatherNewbie]

I'm ready for some hot, DRY weather...

An occasional thunderstorm every few days is fine, but 5-10 inches per month (or per day) is a bit much.

After the drought and all the dead trees, I will never have this perspective.

[TheProfessor]

Euro weeklies show rainfall across Texas to continue strong through the first two weeks of June. Not just a little but a lot above normal. Wettest area relative to normal across the states. Areas that have been rained on a lot are going to get much more.

Per ryan maue some members show in excess of 20 inches in the span of those 4 weeks for some

OLR anomalies show clear the hose from the central and eastern Pacific into Texas.

My goodness if that verified some people will have seen a year's worth of rain in 5 and a half months.

[TheProfessor]

By the way, today is the 2 year anniversary of the May 15, 2013 tornadoes. If I remember correctly there wasn't supposed to be any severe weather that day, much less tornadoes, we needed up getting 19 total. And none of them hit the for main DFW counties! It's days like those though that show you tornadoes can occur anytime anywhere.

[EF-5bigj]

Well today's severe weather is starting to ramp up I think. The last outbreak had no clearing and this time it looks like there is significant clearing just goes to show early convection doesn't always happen.

[Texas Snowman]

Today is the anniversary of the F5 tornado that devastated Sherman here in Grayson County.

The tornado hit on Friday, May 15 about 5 p.m. and more than 60 of the 73 fatalities came as the tornado barreled through a portion of Sherman (it changed direction from its northeasterly course, moving north as it went through Sherman, causing it to miss the downtown area).

Here is the account via Wikipedia:

On the first day of the outbreak sequence, most of the fatalities came from a single supercell thunderstorm that traveled from Denton to Sherman. The tornado began in the Pilot Point area, where farm homes were shifted off of their foundations. The tornado widened and strengthened into a very violent F5 and swept away numerous farms west of Farmington and Howe. Later along the path, the tornado narrowed to around 60 yards (180 ft) wide as it tore through Sherman. Fifty homes were destroyed in town, 20 of which were completely obliterated and swept away. An iron-beam bridge was torn from its supports and twisted into multiple pieces, and one of the beams was driven several feet into the ground.[6][9] Bodies were found up to 400 yards (1,200 ft) from their home sites, and a trunk lid was carried for 35 miles (56 km). Headstones at a cemetery were shattered, and a 500-pound stone was carried for 250 yards. Trees in the area were completely debarked with some reduced to stumps, and grass was scoured from lawns in town.[9] At least 200 people were injured, and bodies of the victims were transported into the courthouse and a vacant building. Several bodies were recovered from a muddy creek.[10] Seventy-three people were killed by this single tornado, one of the worst on record in North Texas and the Red River Valley region."

[Texas Snowman]

Another couple of snippets from the storm, as recorded on http://www.extremeplanet.me:

"One of the bodies was found in a tree four blocks from a home that was swept completely away. The ground within the streak of devastation was scoured, and an iron bridge on Houston Street was ripped from is anchor bolts and fragmented into “useless scraps.”

http://extremeplanet.me/tag/sherman-tornado-1896/

[Brent]

Anyone built the ark yet?

[TheProfessor]

More pictures of the flooding behind my school.







I don't know where the water is coming from, I don't think it's from rain just falling over that area though it could be. It looks like it might stretch all the way and connect to lake grapevine but I'd have to walk along it to verify.

[EF-5bigj]

You guys in Texas are getting drought relief in the most extreme and destructive manner. The drenching you guys are getting makes most Mississippi frog stranglers look small.

[Ntxw]

You guys in Texas are getting drought relief in the most extreme and destructive manner. The drenching you guys are getting makes most Mississippi frog stranglers look small.

It's life in the Great Plains. Everything is always on the extreme, too much or too little of something. If we're not in a flood, we're in drought. One end of the state might be at -1 while the other end it's 99 in winter. We have a desert (trans pecos Chihuahuan Desert) on the west side of the state and a forest (Piney woods) on the other end. That is why we always complain we get too much or too little of stuff

[weatherdude1108]

You guys in Texas are getting drought relief in the most extreme and destructive manner. The drenching you guys are getting makes most Mississippi frog stranglers look small.

It's life in the Great Plains. Everything is always on the extreme, too much or too little of something. If we're not in a flood, we're in drought. One end of the state might be at -1 while the other end it's 99 in winter. We have a desert (trans pecos Chihuahuan Desert) on the west side of the state and a forest (Piney woods) on the other end. That is why we always complain we get too much or too little of stuff

He nailed it. Could not have sat it better.

Adding to that, Lubbock, TX receives normally 18.6 inches of rain a year. Austin, TX receives 33 inches a year on average.

They said on the news that Lubbock, TX has received more rain in May than Austin, TX has (around 7 inches in Lubbock versus around 6 inches in Austin).

[EF-5bigj]

I think rain is good but dangerous washouts aren't I did see a pic of Texas lake that had been low but was now full in just a few days.