Texas Fall 2023

[gpsnowman]

The CPC forecast looks pretty good overall. Normal to below normal temps for the next 4 weeks with normal to above normal rainfall.

Sounds very nino-ish to me. Hopefully it starts to kick in as we head closer to winter/December.

[Ntxw]

The CPC forecast looks pretty good overall. Normal to below normal temps for the next 4 weeks with normal to above normal rainfall.

Sounds very nino-ish to me. Hopefully it starts to kick in as we head closer to winter/December.

We've had our fair share of cloudy days so far. Makes it feel chillier than it is.

[Itryatgolf]

The CPC forecast looks pretty good overall. Normal to below normal temps for the next 4 weeks with normal to above normal rainfall.

Sounds very nino-ish to me. Hopefully it starts to kick in as we head closer to winter/December.

We've had our fair share of cloudy days so far. Makes it feel chillier than it is.

The 12z euro, if correct, depicts what is a typical mjo progression around the colder stormier phases or do you not agree the pattern supports winter weather this early?

[tajmahal]

The EPS ensemble mean forecast temperatures for November 27:

42–27...Amarillo
50–42...Austin Camp Mabry
48–39...Dallas
38–15...Denver
43–30...Oklahoma City
43–30...Tulsa
B22–B30...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

[Stratton23]

Looks like we got the good ole model battle between the Euro and GFS, Euro has plenty of arctic air making its way down here, GFS has nothing, it’s completely lost all the cold air, one of the models is going to fail miserably lol

[Cpv17]

Looks like we got the good ole model battle between the Euro and GFS, Euro has plenty of arctic air making its way down here, GFS has nothing, it’s completely lost all the cold air, one of the models is going to fail miserably lol

Prime example of why we go with the ensembles at this range. A lot less flippidy floppidly lol

[Brent]

I'm still seeing multiple mets up here talking about wintry weather today even though some of the op runs haven't been the best... I think we'll know a lot more once the weekend is over about whether it's real or not

In the meantime I'm hoping for a decent rain Sunday Monday... Tulsa hasnt measured a drop this month

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is very cold, now thats an impressive arctic front on that model run

[Brent]

The GFS has gone from a high in the 20s here next Saturday to a high near 60!!! since yesterday why anyone takes this model seriously is beyond me

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS has gone from a high in the 20s here next Saturday to a high near 60!!! since yesterday why anyone takes this model seriously is beyond me

Ever since that "upgrade" a year or two ago it's been absolutely horrendous in pretty much every category. It needs another upgrade as soon as possible

[tajmahal]

The GFS has gone from a high in the 20s here next Saturday to a high near 60!!! since yesterday why anyone takes this model seriously is beyond me

Go with the GFS ensemble averages instead when this far out. It forecasts a 46° high and a 36° low.

[tajmahal]

00z ICON is very cold, now thats an impressive arctic front on that model run

The ICON ensemble average, which is much more reliable this far out, forecasts a Friday high of 41° and a low of 35° for Tulsa.

[Iceresistance]

00z ICON is very cold, now thats an impressive arctic front on that model run

The ICON ensemble average, which is much more reliable this far out, forecasts a Friday high of 41° and a low of 35° for Tulsa.

I did not know that the ICON had ensembles, Is it only visible by paid subscription?

[tajmahal]

00z ICON is very cold, now thats an impressive arctic front on that model run

The ICON ensemble average, which is much more reliable this far out, forecasts a Friday high of 41° and a low of 35° for Tulsa.

I did not know that the ICON had ensembles, Is it only visible by paid subscription?

It's free:

https://weather.us/forecast/4543762-norman/ensemble/icon-world-range/temperatur

[Stratton23]

CMC and Euro both are showing winter storms for the state, definitely going to be an interesting next few days to watch how models evolve with this

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/37Fsl1eFxbhtu/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9521m65r3cciao4py2nx03xag492gmkmnefiffw1fa1&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_T850a_us_11.png

Hate that it's long range but man oh man would that be nice.

[bubba hotep]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/37Fsl1eFxbhtu/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9521m65r3cciao4py2nx03xag492gmkmnefiffw1fa1&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_T850a_us_11.png

Hate that it's long range but man oh man would that be nice.

Long duration winter wx event for the state, esp. if that energy cuts off in the SW!

[Ntxw]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/37Fsl1eFxbhtu/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9521m65r3cciao4py2nx03xag492gmkmnefiffw1fa1&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_T850a_us_11.png

Hate that it's long range but man oh man would that be nice.

Long duration winter wx event for the state, esp. if that energy cuts off in the SW!

Good things happen (winter wise) for us with Southern Rockies trough, and raised heights over PAC NW and Alaska. I've kind of been zoning in on the leading days of December using analogs for an event but last week of November not that different climo wise.

[gpsnowman]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/37Fsl1eFxbhtu/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9521m65r3cciao4py2nx03xag492gmkmnefiffw1fa1&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_T850a_us_11.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023111812/240/prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_sc.png

Holy moly. This should get the forum perked up. Early December will be the 10 year anny of the Icemaggedon storm. Could we have a repeat in the same time frame this year?