Texas Spring 2025

[TomballEd]

For DFW proper, severe weather has been lackluster (good thing for us homeowners) and rainfall running just a below normal at 2.31 month to date, not by much though. It's been about normal temp wise.

MCS season soon, should've been really. NW flow.

I watched live as a sometimes tornadic supercell with baseball hail got as close as Parker County on Ryan Hall this weekend. I was getting ready to call the family in Bedford for the 'bring in the cars and listen for sirens'. That cell fizzled quickly and just in time.

Big difference- DFW area has sirens. At least my neighborhood just outside city of Houston- no sirens.

[TomballEd]

Severe warned cells S and SE of San Antonio. Unless new cells develop no rain for Houston. But CRP has a chance.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KEWX/standard

[Ntxw]

Also not sure if the 0/20 is the system, but during the uptick of NW flow type MCS activity there could been linkage to an EPAC tropical system. Not atypical for there to be one in May as the first in that region, models think the first hurricane or strong TS. If there is a connection we would see a boost in qpf.

[South Texas Storms]

San Antonio is down almost 57 inches of rain since January 2020. Gotta be the worst rainfall deficit across TX since then, and I bet it's not particularly close. Just beyond depressing.

[869MB]

San Antonio is down almost 57 inches of rain since January 2020. Gotta be the worst rainfall deficit across TX since then, and I bet it's not particularly close. Just beyond depressing.

I blame the -PDO...it's really been hurting you...



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[South Texas Storms]

San Antonio is down almost 57 inches of rain since January 2020. Gotta be the worst rainfall deficit across TX since then, and I bet it's not particularly close. Just beyond depressing.

I blame the -PDO...it's really been hurting you...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Agreed. Crazy how the rest of the state has been doing relatively well though. Just really bad luck along with bad trends over the years.

[HockeyTx82]

Anything like we had this past weekend showing up in the long range?

[TomballEd]

San Antonio is down almost 57 inches of rain since January 2020. Gotta be the worst rainfall deficit across TX since then, and I bet it's not particularly close. Just beyond depressing.

I blame the -PDO...it's really been hurting you...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Agreed. Crazy how the rest of the state has been doing relatively well though. Just really bad luck along with bad trends over the years.

Houston has been doing better than San Antonio but summers have beenvery dry. Used to be able to count on an inverted trough heading W under the big ridge or seabreeze storms. Not been much the last few years.

[wxman22]

There’s a marginal risk for isolated severe tomorrow in north Texas. Sunday or Monday is looking like a washout over here. Could see some severe weather also per SPC. The CSU severe weather probability that the SPC loosely follows already has a 30% contour for severe weather along the I-44 corridor fwiw.

[wxman22]

Upgrade to slight risk tomorrow for North Texas.Main risk is large hail. Posting the CSU severe weather probability for comparison.

[wxman22]

[rwfromkansas]

It's just a model run and will change 100 times between now and tomorrow, but yikes, that massive supercell right over me would be a disaster for senior sunset festivities tomorrow.

[HockeyTx82]

Yup and the 0z is different already.

[Ntxw]

The overall pattern favors storm complexes moving from the north/NW to south/se. Especially in collapsing storms, high wind would be favored. Several of these in the next 7-10 day period especially after this weekend.

[wxman22]

Severe weather risk for today. The SPC has also already added a severe weather risk for NW Texas for Sunday.

[HockeyTx82]

Is it me or are the latest HRRR runs pushing things back with less severity?

[Brent]

NWS has up to 8 inches of rain here by Monday

At least if that happens I doubt the severe weather would get totally out of control probably

[Cpv17]

NWS has up to 8 inches of rain here by Monday

At least if that happens I doubt the severe weather would get totally out of control probably

Need to send some of that down here. The GFS and Euro are wildly different down here.

[wxman22]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains this
afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main threat, along with
severe gusts. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are
possible.

...Southern Plains...
Weak short-wave ridging will shift into the central High Plains
later today and mid-level heights are forecast to rise from the
southern Rockies into the northern Plains. As this occurs, a
synoptic front draped across OK will sag south and sharpen over the
TX South Plains/southern OK by mid-late afternoon. Strong heating
south of the boundary will contribute to a moderately to very
unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve and
mature within this steep lapse-rate environment with 0-6km bulk
shear around 40kt. Wind profiles favor supercells and hodographs
suggest very large hail is likely with the most robust updrafts.
Severe gusts are possible with the stronger downdrafts and upscale
growth into a couple of thunderstorm clusters is forecast during the
evening as this activity moves into northwest/north-central TX
during the evening hours.

[snownado]

Welp, severe t'storms have already blown up over Southern OK. Virtually none of the hi-res models projected that.

Meanwhile, we've been parked just north of a stratus deck here with full sun. I would be surprised if the stratus didn't eventually move in though before mixing out.