Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Noted update for AFD from NWS WFO HGX said no cap at all at a local temp of 80ºF, and temps are now upper 70s across SE Texas, so the first severe warnings of the day Northwest of HOU area are right on time.

[CrazyC83]

Parts of Central Texas have been added to PDS Watch 131.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 181819Z - 182015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF E TX -- IN WRN PORTIONS
OF TORNADO WATCH 131.

RADAR CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN OVERALL INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR STORMS
-- FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL REGION NWD ACROSS PARTS OF E TX --
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD. MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER/MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
PRESENCE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. WITH SHEAR -- ALREADY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES.

..GOSS.. 03/18/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

28839746 29899797 31379790 32689471 29979458 28259704

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL POPE COUNTY 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOGO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ZION HILL...DABNEY...WALKER MOUNTAIN AROUND 130 PM CDT...
CHIMES...RUPERT AROUND 135 PM CDT...
ARCHEY VALLEY...WOOLUM...COPELAND AROUND 140 PM CDT...
KAY...WATTS AROUND 145 PM CDT...

[CrazyC83]

1657 UNK 1 S CAULKSVILLE LOGAN AR 3529 9387 HOMES WERE REPORTED DAMAGED. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN. DAMAGE MAY BE FROM A POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LZK)

[CrazyC83]

Are we headed for a bust? Or is this like Super Tuesday in which we have a ticking time bomb?

[CrazyC83]

Big swath of supercells now stretching from Brownsville to SW of DFW...

[CrazyC83]

Tornado signature over Corpus Christi:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXC273-355-182000-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080318T2000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-
245 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KLEBERG AND SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR SARATOGA AND AIRLINE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RODD FIELD ROAD AND SPID BY 255 PM CDT...
CC NAS BY 255 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 2765 9753 2779 9739 2774 9734 2768 9725
2766 9725 2767 9722 2765 9723 2763 9717
2756 9723 2750 9724 2745 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 270DEG 22KT 2769 9734

$$

JM

[CrazyC83]

2000Z coming out - looks to be virtually unchanged.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 181948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX...SRN/CNTRL
AR...MUCH OF LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
CNTRL TX TO WRN KY...

LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS SRN TX PER
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR
AUS...SWD TO NEAR CRP. LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY WILL SEE A
MARKED INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG UPPER SPEED
MAX...H5 IN EXCESS OF 100KT...BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THE LINEAR STRUCTURE THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED IT APPEARS A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
BUT MARGINAL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPRESSING THE
INSTABILITY OVER AN OTHERWISE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MID
DAY SOUNDINGS FROM LCH/SHV/LZK ALL SUPPORT STRONG/DEEP ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STORM MODE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR MAY PRIMARILY BE LINEAR ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT. EVEN
ALONG THE INCREASING SQUALL LINE SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

ONE INTERESTING NOTEWORTHY TREND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN THE
RECENT DRYING...BUT SUBSTANTIAL WARMING...ACROSS ECNTRL TX/NRN
LA/SRN AR WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DRIED INTO THE UPPER 50S. THIS
DEEPENING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ACTUALLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS SQUALL LINE ADVANCES INTO THIS AIRMASS.
LATER THIS EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS HIGHER MOISTURE
RETURNS NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN
DEVELOP A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONG FORCING
WILL SHUNT LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS AR/LA INTO MS/WRN
TN/KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 03/18/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1953Z (3:53PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Are we headed for a bust? Or is this like Super Tuesday in which we have a ticking time bomb?

It is starting to get that 'bust' feel, but until the front passes, there is always a risk.


The SWODY1 update discussion does seem to imply the paid experts think more squall line, less tornado around here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Are we headed for a bust? Or is this like Super Tuesday in which we have a ticking time bomb?

It is starting to get that 'bust' feel, but until the front passes, there is always a risk.


The SWODY1 update discussion does seem to imply the paid experts think more squall line, less tornado around here.

Local WFO seems to share the thinking. Relevant snip

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THE CAP
HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPRESS THINGS OVER THE COASTAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONE STORM DID BREAK THROUGH THE CAP EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN BRENHAM AND CLL. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WAS
LOCATED AT 1930Z FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO CRP. EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 20Z. COMPARING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND CONTINUITY...EXPECT THE LINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

[southerngale]

I know it's not a popular opinion, but I like the "bust feel" - I have a Rockets game tonight! (22 game winning streak, and counting) If a tornado rips off my roof, I might lose satellite and miss the game.

Ok, a little more serious... after losing electricity for about 1 1/2 hours today, with gusts "only" in the 40's, and no rain yet, I'm not all that comfortable (in this house) being in the 45% area for winds. It's so windy outside right now, but not windy enough to do any damage. Maybe it will stay like this.
How about just some good ol' thunderstorms, with a great lightning show and some good thunderboomers, but without the damage. Can we change our order to that, please?

[Brent]

I'm not that impressed with this system either, and I haven't been for a couple of days. I can't speak for TX/LA, but here the NWS said yesterday that the atmosphere was like summertime meaning there was no cold air aloft and therefore no instability. Looks like another low-topped squall line tomorrow.

I was VERY confused as to why PDS watches went out, because I don't see anything to indicate potential for a strong tornado, which is the whole point of a PDS.

That being said, after all the recent outbreaks I'll definitely be keeping a close eye on it tonight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not that impressed with this system either, and I haven't been for a couple of days. I can't speak for TX/LA, but here the NWS said yesterday that the atmosphere was like summertime meaning there was no cold air aloft and therefore no instability. Looks like another low-topped squall line tomorrow.

I was VERY confused as to why PDS watches went out, because I don't see anything to indicate potential for a strong tornado, which is the whole point of a PDS.

I don't think there has been a tornado yet inside the actual watch boundaries. I get the impression that no place 'busts' SPC watches like the Houston metro area.



I don't watch NBA ball before the Conference Finals, but perhaps I'll watch the Rockets face the toughest test yet of the winning streak. Our neighborhood seems more susceptible to losing electricity during even garden variety storms than most, so maybe I won't.

[RL3AO]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX NNEWD INTO CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...131...

VALID 182054Z - 182300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130...131...CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES AHEAD OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM S TX NNEWD ACROSS NERN TX AND ACROSS CENTRAL AR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO THE NW SIDE OF THIS
FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND JUST E
OF THIS BOUNDARY. WARM-SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF WIDESPREAD STORMS.

SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER FEATURE. THUS -- EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, HOU area still seems quiet, but there looks like one lone cell that is trying to bust the cap East of Lufkin.

[CrazyC83]

I kinda questioned the PDS anyway...

[Bunkertor]

American Airlines Cancels All DFW Flights

High winds and heavy rain today grounded hundreds of flights at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. A control tower also was briefly evacuated when a funnel cloud was spotted. In addition, a Flash Flood Warning for most parts of North Texas has been extended into the evening.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So far, the severe weather is generally 'a bust'.


But flooding around DFW area is getting serious.

Radar rainfall estimates for DFW area