Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

[RL3AO]

It is showing some rotation now.

[Category 5]

Yep, as I predicted. I expect a tornado warning anytime now.

[Category 5]

Oh crap, the one above it too, thats a close call for Wichita Falls too.

[Cyclenall]

Holy, I saw the northern one become a hook like shape too!

[Category 5]

Some rotation here too, look at that DBZ!

[Category 5]

not often you see returns this high.

[Squarethecircle]

Cells firing up like wildfire north of OK City, and some serious stuff going on down in Wichita Falls. I think they need to issue lots of TORs and fast.

[Cyclenall]

CAT5, where is that area in the 2nd last image you just posted?

EDIT: That 75 dbz return just dissappeared!!

[Category 5]

north of OKC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Checking radial velocity mode, there is definite rotation in Archer County.

[wx247]

Storm east of Stillwater seems as if wants to try and rotate. Not sure if it will succeed, but it is likely putting down quite the hail storm regardless!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Softball sized hail fell just outside Scotland in Clay County, last Thursday afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

TXC009-077-080130-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-080408T0130Z/
CLAY TX-ARCHER TX-
804 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ARCHER AND WESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SCOTLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE ARROWHEAD...SCOTLAND AND
WINDTHORST.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS IS LIKELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

[wx247]

http://www.kspr.com/weather/chat might be another link to add if severe weather gets going in SW Missouri. The mets monitor the chat room and provide info.

[wx247]

Didn't mean to spray thread killer.

[Category 5]

That Stillwater cell is bearing down on Tulsa.

[Category 5]

The tornado watch has been shrunk.

It now includes exactly... one county.

[RL3AO]

The PDS now seems to be a mistake. Of course many felt that way after it was issued.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at new WRF, and storms look to blow up near Abilene, my pick city, at/just after 7 pm Wednesday evening, and Abilene remains as the city with a really scary sounding.




Have fun with your own WRF soundings.

[RL3AO]

Look at what the GFS has for Thursday night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS suggesting best rain/precip chances a tad further North than WRF, and my GFS tornado pick city is Ardmore, OK



I suppose I could balance it out, mix it 50/50.

Decatur, TX is an eyeball approximation of between the two. GFS forecast skew-T on top, WRF below

About as supportive a sounding for severe as Ardmore, but GFS shows less rain that far South. Limited instability in very lowest part of atmosphere.


WRF shows a bit less instability, but shows Decatur being very near the warm front




OK, its early, but for Wednesday afternoon/evening, my overall pick city, combining Abilene and Ardmore is Decatur, TX.