Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[RL3AO]

Showers starting to develop near DFW.

[brunota2003]

Gotta love the humidity. It is starting to get humid here in Lawton, dewpoint is 58 last I checked.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.AVIATION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH VERY LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG
LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OUN/OKC WITH MVFR CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS
THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 20-21Z WITH
STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS LARGE SCALE ACCENT OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. TAF SITES THAT HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE LAW/SPS/OUN/OKC BETWEEN 21-3Z. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OK AFTER 9Z...AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

&&

SIX


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/

UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING INTO LOWER 50S AIR. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. ADDED A PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING... BUT THINK THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES STARTED OFF A LITTLE
BEHIND FORECAST... ALTHOUGH THEY FINALLY SEEM TO BE CATCHING UP.
DID LOWER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TEMPERATURES A TOUCH AS CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWER TO CLEAR.

CURRENT THINKING ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING HAS NOT CHANGED BY MUCH. UPPER STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PUSHING EAST. DRY LINE WILL SET UP JUST
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... AND
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS... WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW LONG IT
WILL LAST OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.

[Extremeweatherguy]

60+ dewpoints continue to stream northward pretty quickly into south and central Oklahoma...



Sunshine is trying to break out too. We have lifting fog here in Oklahoma City with some peaks of bright, warm sun coming through every now and then. Once the fog completely burns off, I expect it to go mostly/partly sunny across the region. Looking at the satellite, that seems to already be happening down near Wichita falls, Lawton and Ardmore.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in/around the moderate risk:

Arkansas
Batesville - Overcast, 61 (59)
El Dorado - Partly cloudy, 71 (61)
Fayetteville - Mostly cloudy, 61 (56)
Fort Smith - Mostly cloudy, 57 (52)
Little Rock - Overcast, 65 (63)
Hot Springs - Overcast, 65 (63)
Mena - Mostly cloudy, 68 (63)
Pine Bluff - Overcast, 66 (63)
Russellville - Mostly cloudy, 66 (62)
Texarkana - Light rainshower, 66 (63)

Louisiana
Alexandria - Mostly cloudy, 75 (61)
Monroe - Mostly cloudy, 71 (61)
Shreveport - Partly cloudy, 73 (63)

Missouri
Joplin - A few clouds, 64 (50)
Springfield - Partly cloudy, 59 (46)

Oklahoma
Ada - Mostly cloudy, 66 (61)
Ardmore - Mostly cloudy, 72 (64)
Bartlesville - Sunny, 68 (48)
Enid - A few clouds, 66 (35)
Lawton - A few clouds, 70 (57)
McAlester - Mostly cloudy, 64 (59)
Muskogee - Mostly cloudy, 63 (56)
Oklahoma City - A few clouds, 63 (53)
Stillwater - Sunny, 69 (44)
Tulsa - A few clouds, 64 (54)

Texas
Dallas - Mostly cloudy, 70 (61)
Fort Worth - Mostly cloudy, 70 (60)
Longview - Mostly cloudy, 70 (64)
Lufkin - Partly cloudy, 74 (59)
Paris - Overcast, 70 (63)
Sherman - Mostly cloudy, 66 (61)
Waco - Mostly cloudy, 72 (61)
Wichita Falls - A few clouds, 73 (55)

[brunota2003]

Yes, it is sunny here in Lawton...well, off and on...still some clouds playing with it.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado watch, possibly PDS, coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101817Z - 102015Z

SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM S
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. RESULTING SEVERE
THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- WILL REQUIRE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING NWD ATTM...WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS NOW N OF THE RED RIVER INTO S CENTRAL OK. FROM THIS AREA
SWD...DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HAS PUSHED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE UVV SUGGESTS THAT STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...NW EXTENDING
FROM NEAR LTS SSWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL TX.

ALONG WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING/ESSENTIALLY-UNCAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...18Z FORT WORTH RAOB REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD
WITH HEIGHT. AS FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS A RESULT...STORMS INITIATING INVOF THE DRYLINE
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
-- ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 30960062 31520062 32899988 34059882 35679773 35999718
35989641 35609546 34679538 32509685 31589792 30859923
30960062

[brunota2003]

Looks like I'd be in that watch. The base tested the weather siren yesterday, and the early warning system twice earlier today as well.

[RL3AO]

Hopefully this isn't too sensory overload.

Orange line = recent MD
Green line = slight risk
Yellow line = moderate risk

[srainhoutx]

Tornado watch, possibly PDS, coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101817Z - 102015Z

SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM S
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. RESULTING SEVERE
THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- WILL REQUIRE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING NWD ATTM...WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS NOW N OF THE RED RIVER INTO S CENTRAL OK. FROM THIS AREA
SWD...DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HAS PUSHED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE UVV SUGGESTS THAT STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...NW EXTENDING
FROM NEAR LTS SSWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL TX.

ALONG WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING/ESSENTIALLY-UNCAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...18Z FORT WORTH RAOB REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD
WITH HEIGHT. AS FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS A RESULT...STORMS INITIATING INVOF THE DRYLINE
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
-- ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 30960062 31520062 32899988 34059882 35679773 35999718
35989641 35609546 34679538 32509685 31589792 30859923
30960062

[brunota2003]

Yep, according to that image, I'm in the SLT risk (almost MOD) and just inside the western side of the meso discussion area

[CrazyC83]

That will be Tornado Watch #8, but will it be PDS?

[Bunkertor]

Hopefully this isn't too sensory overload.

Orange line = recent MD
Green line = slight risk
Yellow line = moderate risk

[img]http://i44...........img]

Where´s that page ?

[RL3AO]

Thats GRLevel2

[Bunkertor]

Thats GRLevel2

Ah again. Since i had to do a new setup on my pc, i could start it over

[CrazyC83]

W 8 TORNADO OK TX 101850Z - 110200Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..50NW CQB/CHANDLER OK/ - 35SE ABI/ABILENE TX/..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /24ESE END - 40SE ABI/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST TX AND
SOUTHWEST OK...IN REGION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS REGION IS NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES STRENGTHEN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HART

[CrazyC83]

A bit surprised it is not PDS. Considering the high probabilities, there is a case to be made to go there, but I guess they want to be cautious since climatology does not normally suggest tornado outbreaks in February in Oklahoma.

[RL3AO]

Not surprised. The next one to the east will probably be PDS.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 70/40, which is borderline for going PDS. (Generally, 70/50 will call for that, but I have seen it done on lower numbers)

[Texas Snowman]

34, breezy, and snowing in El Paso.

68, breezy, and humid where I live in the Red River Valley.

The ingredients for a severe weather outbreak certainly seem to be setting up.

Weather radio alarm blared a moment ago for issuance of the new Tornado Watch just to my west. Hope that isn't the first of many more alerts to come.

Tx Snowman