U.S. Drought Monitor

[somethingfunny]

I really don't deserve to be in that little D1 bullseye over northern Dallas county.

[South Texas Storms]

I really don't deserve to be in that little D1 bullseye over northern Dallas county.

Eh, it's ok. We don't mind if you share it with the rest of us.

[Shoshana]

I really don't deserve to be in that little D1 bullseye over northern Dallas county.

My mom and sister are both in it with you. I was up there 2 weeks ago and was shocked at how healthy and green my sister's yard was. She's coming down this week and I bet she will be surprised.

[gboudx]

Grim forecast for Dallas water if this drought doesn't add water to Lake Lavon.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/water-di ... 65443.html

The North Texas Municipal Water District, which serves hundreds of thousands of North Texans, says it's preparing for the possibility that it could run out of water.

The district fears it may not be able to pump from Lake Lavon in two years; that's the worst-case scenario.

The lake's normal level is 492 feet. Right now, it's at 479 and dropping.

Ten more feet would eliminate Lavon as a water source, and if the drought continues, it could trigger some costly decisions.

Some of Lake Lavon's coves are already bone dry. The lake is more than half-empty.

A consultant hired by the NTMWD says if this drought is anything like the drought of the 1950s, it could reach crisis proportions.

"We could potentially run out of water in the district, without taking any other measures, sometime next summer," said NTMWD deputy director Mike Rickman.

[vbhoutex]

That is just for starters for a lot of Texas unfortunately. A lot of people have no idea how close we are to truly critical stages concerning true water shortages in this state. If something doesn't change soon as far as precipitation goes in Texas people will think current water restrictions in place are a complete luxury before it is over. The current forecast does not bode well for any improvement in the picture any time soon either.

[southerngale]

While some areas of Texas have improved a little, 100% of Texas is still in a drought and portions of SE TX have worsened and this area remains in the worst category. We need frequent rounds of widespread rain to really help the drought.

[Stephanie]

It is good to see the lighter colors in some parts of Texas. I know that there's a front that was draped from the Midwest into Texas today and it's making its way towards us for tomorrow. I hope that the rain continues for all of you down there.

[vbhoutex]

It is good to see the lighter colors in some parts of Texas. I know that there's a front that was draped from the Midwest into Texas today and it's making its way towards us for tomorrow. I hope that the rain continues for all of you down there.

Unfortunately we still aren't getting the widespread rains Kelly is talking about. I think the highest amount I saw in the Houston metro area from this latest round was 1.88" at one place with most areas below an inch. Some is better than none, but most areas are over 28" below normal with one over 40" down. So far this month at my house we have had an inch of rain.
I have to say I am thankful to see the lighter colors in NC and N Texas as opposed to what we were seeing though.

[cycloneye]

Not good to see Texas continuing to be dry.Hopefully,things change for the better soon with moisture pouring the state.

[vbhoutex]

That looks so much better than it did even one month ago. However, we are FAR from getting out of this drought and the year is not starting off well rain wise either. We may pick up a few inches this weekend. We shall see. As always, some is better than none. Most areas of SE TX are still at least 50% below normal still(at least in the Houston Metro area). In fact a lot of the Houston area is still in exceptional drought range.

[cycloneye]

This is the January 31rst update that continues to show Texas as the state with the highest and widespread drought conditions.

[vbhoutex]

Drought update from Jeff Lindner: We still have a ways to go. This has not been a short term drought and will not be. As much as we have improved this report is devastating to those of us that have lived in Texas long term and know the local area and its trees, etc. There is so much I would like to highlight in the report that I thought it better to just let this long but worthwhile read stand as is.

Significant improvement made to the ongoing drought across the region as the wet weather pattern that developed in late October brings widespread wetting rainfalls.

As of Feb 7, 2012, only 23% of the state is considered in D4 or exceptional drought (the worst of the drought categories) which is a massive improvement from late summer 2011 when 86% of the state was in D4 conditions. Most of SE TX has transitioned from D 4 to D3 (extreme) and D2 (severe drought). D4 exceptional drought continues to hang on however in the area from Houston and Walker counties WSW across Grimes and Washington counties and then from Jackson across Calhoun counties and southward down the TX coast. Much of the areas west of I-45 remain in extreme drought while areas east of I-45 have moved into severe to moderate drought. Across the central part of the state, drought continues remain significant, while most of N TX has been removed from drought conditions by the recent rainfall.

While short term gains have been large, the longer term averages continue to show very large rainfall deficits of 30-50 inches across SE TX for the past 2 years. In fact this region and especially east TX has been dry since the passage of Hurricane Ike in 2008.

Rainfall has been averaging near to above average east of a line from College Station to Katy to Galveston so far in 2012. In fact Houston IAH has recorded over 9 inches of rainfall in December and January which is more rainfall in those two months than for the entire period from Feb-Sept 2011 when only 7.18 inches of rain fell.

2011 Driest Years:

BUSH IAH ended 2011 as the 3rd direst year on record with a total of 24.57 inches of rainfall (49.77 inches is normal)

Hobby Airport ended the year as the driest year ever with 25.41 inches of rainfall (surpassing the record of 26.65 inches in 1988)

Laredo: driest year ever with 6.66 inches of rainfall (old record was 8.40 inches in 1917)

Lubbock: driest year ever with 5.86 inches of rainfall (old record was 8.73 inches in 1917)

Amarillo: driest year ever with 7.0 inches of rainfall (old record was 9.56 inches in 1970)

Victoria: 2nd driest year ever with 13.08 inches of rainfall (11.15 inches in 1917 is the all-time record)

Corpus Christi: 2nd driest year ever with 12.06 inches of rainfall (5.38 inches in 1917 is the all-time record)

Beaumont: 2nd driest year ever with 31.0 inches of rainfall (30.8 inches in 1954 is the all-time record, only missed that record by .2 of an inch)


To place this in even greater context:

The 7.0 inches of rainfall at Amarillo is less than the 9.1 inches seen in Tehran, Iran. The 5.86 inches at Lubbock is only an inch above Khartoum Sudan (4.8 inches). The period from October 1, 2010 to October 1, 2011 recorded a state average rainfall of about 11 inches or 16 inches below normal and less than that of Morocco and Tunisia!

The rainfall amounts over SE and E TX in 2011 were similar to what one would expect over the corridor from San Angelo to Midland. Effectively the climate of western TX was placed over what is typically a wet eastern TX resulting in severe impacts to water supply and vegetation. Additionally in deep eastern TX, 2012 starts the 3rd year of drought conditions…a longer term drought compared to locations along the coastal bend and central TX which moved into drought conditions during the spring of 2011 (12-15 months). Most of east TX was already running 15-25 inch rainfall deficits at the end of 2010 when most other locations were just starting to enter very dry conditions.

Rainfall Departures from January 1, 2010 – January 31, 2012:

Anahuac: -40.82

Bellville: -36.53

Brenham: -35.91

College Station: -32.83

Columbus: -29.59

Conroe: -38.68

Crockett: -26.23

Danevang: -21.99

Galveston: -46.65

Freeport: -47.61

Houston Hobby: -33.97

Houston IAH: -30.56

Huntsville: -49.49

Katy: -26.38

Livingston: -46.58

Madisonville: -41.32

Matagorda: -16.79

Palacios: -18.30

Somerville: -30.07

Tomball: -54.36

Beaumont: -36.14

Lake Charles: -34.48



October 1, 2019 to Feb 9, 2012 Rainfall Deficits:

Corpus Christi: -23.87

Victoria: -34.92

Laredo: -19.66

Water Supply:

Recent rains over N and E TX have lead to significant run-off into area lakes and rivers especially the Trinity River. Lake Livingston reached full pool capacity in Jan and then exceeded its capacity in early Feb requiring flood gate operations to maintain a steady pool near its conservation level. Lake Houston has also returned to 100% capacity due to the draw down from Lake Conroe ordered by the City of Houston last fall and the return of rains this winter. However, other water supply lakes remain very low with capacities running less than 60% and less than 40% across central TX. Statewide conservation storage is at 67% up from 59% at the end of summer 2011 and up from 62% on 1/15/2012…so some decent gains have been made in the last few weeks, but mainly only in the eastern part of the state. Some lakes remain completely dry in the western part of the state.

Lake Level departures from normal pool and % capacity of Feb 6, 2012:

Lake Conroe: -6.65 (72%)

Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%)

Lake Livingston: +1.30 (+100%)

Lake Somerville: -7.16 (54%)

Lake Texana: -9.29 (54%)

Lake Buchanan: -30.26 (40%)

Lake Travis: -53.99 (35%)

Lake Georgetown: -16.15 (53%)

Toledo Bend: -7.87 (71%)

Sam Rayburn: -9.55 (67%)

Note:

Lake Conroe reached a new record low pool elevation of 192.2 feet on 12/1/11 and has since recovered to around 194.0 feet

Sam Rayburn Reservoir tied its historical low of 150.75 feet on 11/20/11, and has recovered to 155.65 ft

Toledo Bend reached a new record low pool elevation of 159.57 feet on 11/19/11 surpassing its previous record of 161.5 feet in 10/2006, and has recovered to 164.64 ft.



On the Colorado River Basin which contains the highland lakes chain. A total of 127,699 acre-feet of inflow went into the lakes during 2011. In a normal year 1.25 million acre feet of inflow would go into those lakes…so around 10% of their yearly inflow occurred in 2011. Of the top 7 lowest monthly inflows into the Highland Lakes, 4 were established in 2011, the other 3 were held in the drought of the 1950’s including the top 1 and 2 lowest inflows. Note: 1 acre foot = 325,000 gallons of water. As of Feb 1, 2012 the combined storage of the highland lakes was 38% (historical low is 31% on 9/9/1952). LCRA projections show the highlands lakes falling to between 36-37% of capacity by March 1, 2012 and 25-31% of capacity by August 1, 2012 if the current rainfall patterns hold. This will push the lakes to near the drought of record of the 1950’s and trigger water use cuts by 20% for both municipal and industrial customers.



In early November 2011, 1000 out of the state’s 4700 public water systems had imposed voluntary or mandatory restrictions, 55 prohibited all outside watering and 23 were within 180 days of running out of water completely.



Fire Weather:

Luckily, frequent wetting rains have allowed fine fuels (winter grasses) to green and have prevented any major outbreaks of wildfires. Spring green up in 2012 should be much more robust than in 2011 due to the rainfall over the past 3 months allowing vigorous early growth of grasses and shrubs which did not happen in 2011. Lack of harsh winter cold is also allowing an early green up compared to the past 2 years. Burn bans remain in effect for 103 Texas counties across parts of west TX, SW TX, and the panhandle, but the fire weather threat remains low. KBDI is at or below 200 for nearly all of the counties in SE TX except for Jackson County which has values between 400-600. A KDBI of 0 is saturated conditions and 800 is the top 8 inches of soil is completely devoid of water.

A total of 4.1 million acres burned across TX in 2011 making it by far the worst wildfire year ever in state history. This acreage burned equals the land area of Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, and DC combined. 2862 homes were lost (1939 over the Labor weekend alone) along with 2700 other structures such as out buildings and barns. Some other stats:

In State Response (Mutual Aid System):

207 fire departments

1,274 firefighters

329 fire engines

Out of State Response:

16,410 personnel from all 50 states and Puerto Rico deployed to TX

239 dozers used to cut fire lines

954 fire engines used

246 aircraft used (16,912 flight hours logged)

28 million gallons of water dropped

5.9 million gallons of fire retardant dropped

54,192 total aircraft drops.

Tree Mortality

One of the most striking impacts of the drought has been the tremendous loss of trees across the state, but especially in east Texas and around the Houston area. The Texas Forest Service estimates that between 100-500 million trees (2-10% of the entire state canopy coverage) have died due to the drought and another 4 million were killed by wildfire (1.5 million in the Bastrop fire alone). This estimate does not include tree mortality in urban areas and it is estimated that those numbers could be as high as an additional 50-150 million trees. Loblolly Pines and Water Oaks have suffered greatly in eastern TX especially in areas where water typically ponds that dried out during the drought (river bottoms, marsh areas, ect). Many trees went into dormancy in the late summer last year to conserve what little water was still available and the big question is did they survive, this will be determined once the spring green up begins.

There were 3 extensive areas of very heavy loss:

The western fringe corridor of the Piney Woods (from Walker and Madison Counties southward to Waller and Harris Counties including Grimes and Montgomery counties). Heavy losses of pines in this region with some stands of trees in Montgomery and Grimes Counties showing 90-100% mortality.

The second area was across Lee, Caldwell and Bastrop counties where widespread mortality of cedar and post Oak trees have been noted along with heavy losses on pines in Bastrop County both pre and post fire conditions.

The third area was along I-10 in Sutton and Crockett Counties where near total losses of ash juniper were noted.

Memorial Park:

The combination of the extremely hot and dry summer and urban development around Memorial Park likely led to the staggering losses. It appears that at least 90% of the park’s canopy cover died with the City of Houston removing a total of 17,500 trees. Many of the trees were 100+ years old and lived through the droughts of the 1910’s and 1950’s, but were unable to survive the current drought. A total of 200,000 cubic yards of tree debris has been removed from Memorial Park.

The City also estimated that 80% of the pines in MacGregor Park died.

Centerpoint has removed 19,000 dead trees from their Right of Way at a cost of 5.1 million dollars.

Of the 225 school districts in the region, an estimated 225,000 trees have died on their property or a mortality rate of about 50%.

Even with the recent rains, deep rooted trees continue to suffer in areas where the drought has persisted the longest. Even when the drought ends, tree loss will continue due to the added stress of the dryness and the vulnerability of the trees to pests and disease. Additional updates will be available after the spring green up and this summer from the Texas Forest Service as aircraft will be used to survey the losses.

Ag Impacts:

Lack of fresh water supplies and poor vegetation for grazing have resulted in one of the largest cattle reductions ever in the state of Texas. Productions herds are down 600,000 from this time last year and is the lowest in the state since 1961. In addition, the body condition of cattle has deteriorated from poor nutrition and the calving season has progressed. Due to the drought it is estimated that consumer prices have increased 3.5-4.5% with beef being the largest increase at 8-9% along with timber (8%). Hay remains in short supply across much of the state and continues to sell at extremely high prices of 150 dollars per round bale to 13-20 dollars per square bale.

A record 5.2 billion dollars in losses have occurred across the state with an estimated additional indirect losses of 3.5 billion with total losses likely in the 8-11 billion dollars and this is from the fall of 2011.

Outlook:

Some good news appears in the longer range modeling showing a gradual weakening of the La Nina condition in the central Pacific. Even with the current La Nina rainfall patterns across eastern TX have been near to above normal since last November leading to hope that more normal spring rainfall will continue into 2012. Areas across south, west and central TX continue to experience below normal rainfall. While CPC maps for the next 1-3 months continue the trend of below normal rainfall through the spring, it is clear that the upper level pattern thus far this winter has favored more rainfall production than in 2011. Of greater importance is the wetting of the soil and keeping it wet into the warmer months to prevent the strong feedback processes of a dry ground against the lower air mass which helps build and intensify high pressure over the area killing chances for the more typical summer rains especially along the coast. If you are going to break a drought of this magnitude, this is one way to do it without a tropical system…frequent and consistent storm systems with widespread rains.

With that said, will favor the wetter side of things…near to above normal rainfall continuing into the spring for E and SE TX, with near or below normal rainfall over the central, western and southern parts of the state, but not as severe as in 2011. Spring convective events may bring more opportunity of some big totals in short periods of time given the lack of cold events this year over the Gulf and warm water temperatures able to supply greater moisture into the region. Above average temperatures will also continue in phase with the La Nina condition and the active southern jet helping to keep what arctic air there is in Canada well north of TX.

[southerngale]

The drought has improved tremendously in this part of Texas. While all of Southeast Texas is still in a Severe to Moderate drought, you wouldn't know it by looking around. It's very wet, with standing water everywhere, and creeks and rivers are high. Quite a bit of rain is expected the next few days as well.

[somethingfunny]

There's actually another state in worse shape than Texas now.

[cycloneye]

The latest update shows improvement of less drought conditions in parts of Texas.

[Stephanie]

I'm happy that Texas is no longer a big red blob on the drought monitor. Looking good!

[vbhoutex]

I'm happy that Texas is no longer a big red blob on the drought monitor. Looking good!

So are we!!! After last year we almost don't know what to do with "normal" weather. Now I have to get out and do my spring chores in the yard. May have to re-sod though. Drought may have taken too much grass to bring it back enough to be viable. At least we are seeing green yards. Spring has already sprung here for sure.

[somethingfunny]

DALLAS/FORT WORTH - WETTEST LA NINA WINTERS (DECEMBER-FEBRUARY)

1 12.48 1944-1945
2 12.41 2011-2012* (THROUGH FEBRUARY 27)
3 12.18 2000-2001
4 10.22 1964-1965
5 9.52 1984-1985

WACO - WETTEST LA NINA WINTERS (DECEMBER-FEBRUARY)

1 12.01 2011-2012* (THROUGH FEBRUARY 27)
2 11.03 1944-1945
3 9.45 1938-1939
4 9.40 1999-2000
5 8.95 1909-1910

[cycloneye]

The Western part of the state of Texas continues in a severe drought situation, while the Central and Eastern part is getting better and better.



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[cycloneye]

Texas continues to improve except for the Western part of the state.



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