Texas Spring-2015

[hriverajr]

Heavy rain here in Del Rio, I'm sure there is a bit of street flooding already, been a wet winter, and spring off to a good start

[TheAustinMan]

San Antonio is headed for quite a soaking within the next hour or so.

[Texas Snowman]

Radar is really lit up in South and Central Texas.

Some flash flooding to E/SE of San Antonio, up to SIX INCHES of rain according to the flood advisory below:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

TXC255-493-211345-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150321T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KARNES TX-WILSON TX-
652 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
KARNES AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 646 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL RATES
WERE DECREASING ACROSS KARNES AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES WITH
RATES NOW LESS THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR. HOWEVER...EARLIER HEAVY RAINS
BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THAT UP
TO 6 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN
IN THE FALLS CITY TO CESTOHOWA TO KOSCIUSKO AREAS. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KENEDY...KARNES CITY...POTH...KOSCIUSKO...RUNGE...FALLS CITY...
GILLETT...CESTOHOWA...PANDORA...EL OSO...PANA MARIA...HELENA...COY
CITY...ZUNKERVILLE...HOBSON...ECLETO...DEWEESVILLE AND PAWELEVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

[Snowman67]

Anyone here know where I could access data that would indicate when wind speeds exceeded a certain speed in a specific location. Have a buddy that is in the roofing business and has to provide some information to an insurance company. Thanks.

[Ntxw]

What great way to start 2015 rain wise for the state of Texas. Nearly everyone is near or above normal.

As of yesterday

Austin:
March: 3.91 inches +2.16 above normal
2015: 9.65 inches +3.39 above normal

San Antonio:
March: 2.81 inches +1.23 above normal
2015: 7.01 inches +1.88 above normal

Houston:
March: 5.24 inches +3.04 above normal
2015: 9.07 inches +0.29 above normal

DFW:
March: 2.41 inches +0.14 above normal
2015: 8.99 inches +1.93 above normal

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Goodness it is dumping out here. We need a flash flood watch in my opinion.

[Ntxw]

For you eastplexers lakes Lavon and Ray Hubbard have been making big strides. Both lakes are now over 70% of conservation, 50% a month ago. How quickly things have turned around there. If the rains keep going next month it may well reach over 80%. No more complaining east of I-35 .

Many of the eastern and southern Lakes of North Texas are at 100% capacity. The western region west of 35 is still suffering many below 50% hopefully more improvement there soon.

[weatherdude1108]

Out of the 2-4 inch widespread rain event predicted, we got 1.1 inches as of 5pm. Kind of a forecast bust, but nice rain nonetheless.

[bigddstranny]

We must be fairly close. I'm at nearly the exact same total.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting. At least we're consistent.

I'm west of 183, north of 620.

[texas1836]

According to my weather station, we’ve had 13.00 inches of rain since the 1st of the year. It would be nice to double that in the next 3 months.

[texas1836]

McKinney that is. I know it's regional.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some great rain this weekend. Should have put a nice dent in the drought.

[dhweather]

Lavon has had a solid improvement since February - roughly 6.5 feet in a month. Amazing things can happen when you not only get rain, but rain on saturated soils. The battle goes on, need 6 more feet to top Lavon & Hubbard off, but there are many lakes in North Texas that still need a lot of water. Hopefully we get widespread rains Tuesday/Wednesday while the soils are still saturated.



Arlington -2.1
Bridgeport -23.9
Eagle Mountain -10.2
Grapevine -9.5
Lavon -5.39
Lewisville -4.2
Possum Kingdom -14.1
Ray Hubbard -5.87
Tawakoni -6.72
Texoma -3.73
Worth -3.19

[dhweather]

Meanwhile, in Austin, Lake Travis is only down 53.42 feet.

[dhweather]

360 hours out the GFS is money, right?!

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, in Austin, Lake Travis is only down 53.42 feet.

Ugh. Don't remind me.
We got 1.2 inches out of the 2-4 inches widespread with isolated 4-6 inches that were predicted. Apparently dry mid-level air entrainment from Mexico was involved that the models didn't pick up on. Figures, but I'm still confused, because that was a solid moisture tap from the tropics(?). Widespread flooding in the basin should have been a given IMO. Hmmm. Seems like 99% of the time an event is hyped down here, it does not pan out. The mysteries of forecasting.

Well, despite the bust, my backyard had puddles from the 1-incher+, enough to settle in the compost and not wash it away.
Anywhoo.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah there was a big dry slot after the big rain event. Was hoping more lift could overtake the dry and get you guys more rain but no luck

[somethingfunny]

Another gem of a discussion from FWD. The bolded part had me in stitches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
DODGE CITY AND WAS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE
FALLING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS. ONCE MIXING ENSUES THIS
MORNING...BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND RELAX AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WHILE TRYING TO CLASSIFY THESE NEBULOUS SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE SPRING CAN BE TRICKY...THE NORTHWEST WINDS...RISING PRESSURES
AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WOULD DEFINITELY ARGUE
A COLD FRONT RATHER THAN A DRY LINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE
FEATURE THAT ARRIVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VEERING SURFACE WINDS...HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS
TO THE LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DUE TO ANTICIPATED PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WARMING.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS WHETHER CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK MUCH TOO
FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE ANY DIRECT FORCING OVER THE REGION. THE CAP
WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CAP LIFTING AND WEAKENING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
MOST OF THIS DYNAMIC LIFT TODAY IS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL WARM
ADVECTION WHICH IS JUST AS IMPORTANT TO FINDING AREAS OF LIFT AS
THE MORE POPULAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IS. USING MATH WE
CAN FIND AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION BY USING THE
LAPLACE OPERATOR TAUGHT IN A STANDARD DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
COURSE. OF COURSE DOING THAT WOULD PROBABLY GIVE ME PTSD...SO THE
EASY WAY IS JUST TO LOOK FOR THE THERMAL ADVECTION THAT OCCURS
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL JET...SUCH THAT THE WARM ADVECTION FIELDS SHOW
A NOSE OR BULGE NORTHWARD. THE END RESULT IS THAT CINH BECOMES LOW
ENOUGH NORTH OF I-20 THAT GIVEN A SUFFICIENT MECHANICAL
PERTURBATION...CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. NEAR THE RED RIVER...CINH
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALMOST ZERO...AND THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BECOMES MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

GIVEN THE VEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO GUIDANCE...HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION RESOLVING OR LOW-
RESOLUTION CONVECTION PARAMETERIZING...THAT FORECASTS INITIATION
TO OCCUR OVER OUR CWA TODAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS US BEING
VERY CLOSE THOUGH...WITH INCREASING RH IN THE 800-900MB LAYER
ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE THIS BOUNDARY IS A FRONT
RATHER THAN A DRY LINE...THE FRONTOGENESIS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
IS ON THE WARM MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. IN CONTRAST...THE
FRONTOGENESIS LIFT WITH A DRY LINE IS ON THE DRY AND WARMER
WESTERN SIDE...WHICH CAN BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPEDANCE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE MORE INCLINED TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CONGESTUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS REALLY UP TO A RANDOM CHANCE
EVENT THAT A STORM CAN FORM WHERE MECHANICAL FORCING IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC STABILITY. SHOULD A
STORM FORM AND GET GOING BEFORE TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET...IT WOULD
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS LOOKS TOO WEAK TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A TORNADO
THREAT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT IS NON-ZERO WHEN SURFACE BASED
SUPERCELLS ARE IN PLAY.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN TODAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR WICHITA FALLS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE S/SW OF THERE. THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE MUCH
TOO FAR EAST WITH THE POSITION OF THE DRY LINE...AND PREFER THE
NAM/WRF MODELS WHICH HAVE THE DRYLINE JUST BEYOND OUR CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY THE CAP BECOMING BREAKABLE
WEST OF A COMANCHE TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. ACROSS THE NW ZONES...SBCAPE WILL REACH 1500-2000 J/KG
AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE STRONGLY SHEARED THAN THEY
ARE TODAY. THUS...ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ON THE DRYLINE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE DONT EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSIPATE WHEN THEY REACH THE
MORE CAPPED AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INSTEAD THEY WILL KEEP TRACKING EAST...BUT JUST BECOME
ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL
YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE FOR THESE STORMS TO UTILIZE. SO WHILE
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DROP OFF AS THEY REACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT IN THIS REGION DUE TO THE
MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERHAPS MORE SCATTERED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR 60. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY WITH A COUPLE
OF COOL NIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
THE WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS LOW ON MONDAY FOR NOW.

[wxman57]

Some GREAT spring weather coming up next week. Upper 80s across SE TX and near 100 in the LRGV. Finally, a touch of warmth...