Texas Fall 2019

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Haris
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#141 Postby Haris » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:09 am

Severe drought across most of Austin. Extreme showing up in Williamson Co. not good !
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#142 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:24 am

Haris wrote:Severe drought across most of Austin. Extreme showing up in Williamson Co. not good !


The rain essentially shut off when July hit, along with consistent week after week of upper 90s to 100+ temperatures, still going on. It was inevitable. Hoping the upper level low does something next week. Even so, the rain chances went from 30% to 10% on KXAN next week. Of course they did. We're in Austin.

No such thing as regular pop-up showers anymore like when we were kids. Now we have weeks and months of oven heat without any rain, year after year, which is the norm now it seems. :roll: I'm ready to move at this point.

At least the nighttime is a tad "cooler" lately at mid-70s, versus 79-80. Sun rays losing steam as we head into Fall. Maybe that'll condense out more moisture for systems. One can only hope. Dang Atlantic!lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#143 Postby utpmg » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:55 pm

Drought must have dried up the government's servers. I can't get weather.gov to return me any local forecasts:
"An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.c0de8ac.1568318004.11ec807c"
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#144 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:06 pm

It's called climate change....

Because most weather data is based off 30 yr averages means we are going back to 1989 thru 2019, about half of the top 10 in just about every weather category, hottest, driest, wettest, (can't use coldest we live in Texas) whether it's month, season, or year have been 1990 or better.

Imagine what the next 30 yrs will hold.....
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#145 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:44 pm

I see signs of hope but I'm concerned the Atlantic could screw us since it appears 95L could do something similar to Dorian up the coast if the Euro is correct :double:
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#146 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Brent wrote:I see signs of hope but I'm concerned the Atlantic could screw us since it appears 95L could do something similar to Dorian up the coast if the Euro is correct :double:

That’s what it looks like now, just following the East coast of Florida.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#147 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:10 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Brent wrote:I see signs of hope but I'm concerned the Atlantic could screw us since it appears 95L could do something similar to Dorian up the coast if the Euro is correct :double:

That’s what it looks like now, just following the East coast of Florida.


If it stays weak probably not a big deal but if it blows up offshore like the Euro yikes
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#148 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:51 pm

Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Brent wrote:I see signs of hope but I'm concerned the Atlantic could screw us since it appears 95L could do something similar to Dorian up the coast if the Euro is correct :double:

That’s what it looks like now, just following the East coast of Florida.


If it stays weak probably not a big deal but if it blows up offshore like the Euro yikes


Sucks. Such depressing weather for us. I was really hoping this would come our way.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#149 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:That’s what it looks like now, just following the East coast of Florida.


If it stays weak probably not a big deal but if it blows up offshore like the Euro yikes


Sucks. Such depressing weather for us. I was really hoping this would come our way.


at least we never had a shot... initially it was headed for MS/AL/GA and now they will be in subsidence again if it does blow up :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#150 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:19 am

Currently 68 and rainy. So far I’ve picked up 1.76”. We’ve really needed this.

Finished out this morning with 1.93”
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#151 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:03 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Currently 68 and rainy. So far I’ve picked up 1.76”. We’ve really needed this.

Finished out this morning with 1.93”


That's a nice change of scenery! You have the weather of my dreams I wish for right now.

Could you, ahem...,send some of that down here, please sir? :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#152 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:14 pm

Maaaaaaaayyyyyybe we're getting somewhere(?). Above normal to normal precip the next three to four weeks (at this time), with the exception of north Texas that is below normal precip in weeks three to four.

Image
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#153 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:29 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:It's called climate change....

Because most weather data is based off 30 yr averages means we are going back to 1989 thru 2019, about half of the top 10 in just about every weather category, hottest, driest, wettest, (can't use coldest we live in Texas) whether it's month, season, or year have been 1990 or better.

Imagine what the next 30 yrs will hold.....


Possibly the reverse for all we know. I have little trust in climate models. Our much shorter-term models cannot even accurately project the weather a week in advance. Until they can do that accurately, I will not place much confidence in any model (especially long-term).
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#154 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:58 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Currently 68 and rainy. So far I’ve picked up 1.76”. We’ve really needed this.

Finished out this morning with 1.93”


That's a nice change of scenery! You have the weather of my dreams I wish for right now.

Could you, ahem...,send some of that down here, please sir? :ggreen:

We got super lucky with this. It just kind of stalled out over the top of us and rained steadily for hours. Unfortunately it looks like mid to upper 90s returns tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#155 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:24 pm

Keep watch in the EPAC about 7-10 days from now. Still hints of a west coast trough pulling up moisture especially if there is a hurricane off the west Mexican coast near the Equinox.

As far as cold air, no favorable signal with a poor Pacific set up so far set to continue.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#156 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:23 am

The low pressure system in the central Gulf looks increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to much of south TX next week. 0z Euro looks good!
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#157 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:33 am

South Texas Storms wrote:The low pressure system in the central Gulf looks increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to much of south TX next week. 0z Euro looks good!


Has me in Wharton County getting hammered with about 7”! Bring it on!! Picked up 4.6” this week btw 8-)
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#158 Postby BrokenGlass » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:37 am

Worst.
September.
EVER.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#159 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:12 am

Hopefully, Texas can get some rain out the Gulf disturbance b/c the Euro EPS says, "Fall, What is the Fall Thread you speak of?"

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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#160 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:57 am

Yeah I get that we need rain, but a system traversing the GoM in mid-September doesn't generate any good feelings.
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