Mid-day update from Jeff Lindner:
Record heat likely Thursday and Friday over the region with highs well into the low and mid 100’s….but changes appear coming this weekend into next week.
Mid and upper level high pressure anchored over the SW US will ridge into central and eastern Texas Thursday and Friday yielding likely record heat over the area. Slight chances for seabreeze activity will lower to less than 20% for Thursday and Friday with subsidence overhead. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s near the coast and low to mid 100’s inland…maybe even upper 100’s north of HWY 105 where grounds are dry and dewpoints will mix out allowing full potential heating of the air mass.
Fire weather concerns will continue into the end of the week with the Damon 20 Fire yesterday in Brazoria County burning 1000 acres. Even with higher humidity values, fire continue to start in the extremely dry vegetation and spread rapidly. Humidity values will lower into Thursday and Friday especially north of I-10 and while winds will remain below Red Flag Warning levels…the critically dry vegetation will compensate for the lower winds.
Weekend:
Mid and upper level ridge back to the west with a trough developing over the eastern US and digging back southwest into Texas. Disturbances riding down the west side of the trough will move across eastern Texas starting Saturday and expected numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over western Louisiana and eastern Texas Saturday afternoon and move SSW/SW into the area. Given the likely very warm air mass in place Saturday afternoon along with dry sub-cloud layers…gusty winds will be possible with any storms. Similar pattern for Sunday with both disturbances rolling in from the north and seabreeze from the south…with at least 40-60% coverage over the area.
Next Week:
Weak front will enter into the picture early to mid next week and with moisture pooling over the region scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will result. With the mid level ridge remaining well to our west…subsidence that has been with us for much of the summer will be gone and replaced with more favorable dynamics to produce showers and thunderstorms. Will not get too carried away just yet with rainfall totals since the dry is suffering in deep drought and drought is hard to overcome…but the pattern does favor several rounds of thunderstorms early to mid next week with the front to our north and then slowly pushing toward the coast. Will likely need to see how convection plays out each day and this is still 4-5 days away so time for things to trend drier or wetter…but at least there are changes starting Saturday for several days for some much needed rainfall.
TS Lee:
Tropical storm Lee has formed over the Atlantic 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Lee consists of a developing area of deep convection near the center with large curved banding to the west of the center. Overall this is a tropical system poised for significant intensification over the next 3-5 days with near record warm waters and good upper level outflow aloft. Intensity guidance is about as aggressive as ever seen with an Atlantic basin hurricane and makes Lee a category 4/5 in 3-4 days and this seem reasonable given the favorable conditions.
Over the track guidance is in good agreement through 5 days with Lee moving generally WNW and passing to the north of the Leeward Islands. Once Lee reaches the area east of the Bahamas a trough along and to the west of the US east coast will become critically important in how fast and hard the system turns toward the north. There becomes much greater uncertainty beyond 5 days where Lee will be located and how the upper level steering pattern over the western Atlantic and eastern US evolves. It is likely the Lee will become a significantly large hurricane over the southwest and western Atlantic.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
