MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...WCENTRAL MS AND NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 241743Z - 241945Z



ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA.
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCINH HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 25
J/KG OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
WEAK...LITTLE REMAINING CINH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR INTO WCENTRAL MS.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN WAA ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
GREATER SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
THE AREA...SO MULTICELLULAR TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THAT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LINEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING NWRN AR/NERN OK MCV...CONVECTION MAY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED SVR
THREAT.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320...

VALID 241821Z - 242015Z



LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED VCNTY KTUL...JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV OVER EXTREME SERN
KS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE
SEWD MOVING COLD OUTFLOW MOVING TOWARD ECNTRL OK AND NWRN AR.
MOREOVER...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED THROUGH CNTRL AR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HIGHER DEW
POINT AXIS FROM THE KMKO-KFSM-KELD. MLCAPES IN THIS AXIS ARE IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF KTUL/KMKO BY 20Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME
STRONG-SEVERE OWING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR. WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE CELLS TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS AND BOW AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO WCNTRL
AR/ECNTRL OK WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STRONGER STORMS
WILL LIKELY PREFER THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/JUST WEST OF
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

FARTHER E...THE ONCE STRONG ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN AR
HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE LLJ AXIS HAS WEAKENED. BUT...THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB AND SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 242007Z - 242100Z



A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SCNTRL SD INTO SWRN NEB. PER 18Z LBF
SOUNDING AUGMENTED WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES YIELDS ALMOST NO
INHIBITION. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FORM FIRST ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN NEB
INTO SERN SD WHERE SRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL JETLET MOVING ACROSS
ERN SD SKIRTS THAT AREA. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD SWWD TOWARD
THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER NERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320...

VALID 242042Z - 242215Z



MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
SEWD ATTM...SITUATED JUST SW OF KTUL-KMKO AND THEN INTO NWRN AR. CU
FIELD WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SWELLING WITH GLACIATED TOWERS SHOWING UP
ATTM ACROSS ECNTRL OK IN DOWNSTREAM VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIND
THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGER...WITH
ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING SEWD WITHIN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN AR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH IS ERODED.
FARTHER EAST...SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING CLOSER TO THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL AR...INTERMIXED WITH THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

MODEST 35-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE MCV OVER NERN OK
WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING EARLY PART OF STORM LIFECYCLES.
BUT...GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ATOP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND
ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 251859Z - 252030Z



...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z...

COMPLEX SFC PATTERN HAS EVOLVED ACROSS NORTH TX EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT INTO NERN TX
WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SWRN OK/ERN TX
PANHANDLE. RESULTANT SFC BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHARPEN NEAR
I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF FTW...WWD TOWARD ABI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AND
BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED ALLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS ZONE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODEST
NWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE MCS. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...HOWEVER STORM EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY
BECOME AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL
COUNTRY AFTER 26/00Z. LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT INCREASES WITH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 251856Z - 252100Z



TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCNTRL/NERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NCNTRL NM AND
THE RATON MESA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST UPPER 40S
DEW POINTS WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID
IN TSTM INITIATION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR S THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NM/CO BORER WILL TRAVEL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BUT...PRIND IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA S OF THE RATON
MESA INTO ECNTRL NM WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE
CINH AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER 22-23Z.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ECNTRL NM. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A MCS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330...

VALID 252142Z - 252345Z



...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF WW...

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY
WHICH IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEX. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
INDIVIDUAL STORMS AS NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS CELLS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS MAIN
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD NEXT TWO HOURS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332...

VALID 252156Z - 252330Z



A BOWED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SEWD PART OF WW 332 OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR
NE TX ACROSS WRN AND SRN LA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS EAST TX
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 DEGREE F. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD DOWN THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE RELATIVELY
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD FUEL THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET IN NE TX AND PROFILERS
SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX. AS
THE JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE SE EDGE OF WW 332...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN
SE TX AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA LATER THIS EVENING.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...

VALID 252218Z - 260015Z



STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
WW TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SRN PTN OF WATCH.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 261822Z - 262015Z



SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN
IA...AND FAR NERN NEB. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
UNFOCUSED...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TONIGHT. REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF AN ORGANIZED
THREAT AREA DEVELOPS.

MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT /-24C TO -25C/
WILL ROTATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SW OF QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EVIDENT ACROSS
NWRN ONTARIO. DESPITE LACK OF FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN DEEP
WNWLY FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...DESPITE SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD /MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING/. IN ADDITION...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ESEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KT AND LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AFTER SUNSET.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 262024Z - 262200Z



...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED...

STRONG SFC RIDGE WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM HAS
FORCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM
WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND STRONG
BUOYANCY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SAN MATEO MTNS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NRN NM.
SUFFICIENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER COOLER AIRMASS OF ERN NM LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 311802Z - 312000Z



INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL.
AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL
THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE.

AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND
INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN
OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
INTO SERN NEB.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS
AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 311805Z - 312000Z



STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W
CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM
THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...
RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL
GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS
ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362...

VALID 312050Z - 312245Z



WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY. MOST SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED SE OF THE AMA AREA
ENHANCED BY SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT/INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA. AIR
MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. THUS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT AND STRONG INSTABILITY S OF BOUNDARY INDICATES PRESENCE OF
ENHANCED LIFT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES
ARE MAIN THREAT.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH. LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG SIGNAL OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM E CENTRAL NM INTO W TX. RUC FCST MIDLAND
SNDG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 45-55 KT
INDICATING AGAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370...

VALID 011231Z - 011400Z



MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- INDICATED AT 1215Z
ROUGHLY FROM APF-VRB.

BEST ORGANIZED PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND ATTM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND EXTENDS FROM VRB AREA NWD. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED SUBSEVERE
GUST OF 43 KT AT A BREVARD COUNTY BEACH WITHIN PAST HOUR. AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAVORABLY BUOYANT AND WEAKLY
CAPPED...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN
LINE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY WITHIN
IT. STRONG TSTMS OVER GULF SW APF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
COLLIER COUNTY WITHIN NEXT HOUR AS WELL. 12Z MFL RAOB INDICATES
MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH SFC HEATING INTO LOWER 80S F.
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD/WWD EXTENT FROM THAT RAOB...BASED
ON PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC GUIDANCE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL FL.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 012003Z - 012200Z



SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

THOUGH ONE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NORTH/
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOTTINEAU.

NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS MINOT INTO AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK
...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING
MID/UPPER JET. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO BECOME BASED IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG
AND...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 372...

VALID 012037Z - 012200Z



LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW NEAR
COLUMBUS MS SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND SRN GA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE GA. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTUAL SFC
INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COMBINED WITH OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THERE
IS STILL A THREAT OF TORNADOES...THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WHERE FLOW IS BACKED TO
THE E/SE PER SOUTH CAROLINA VAD WIND DATA.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND CNTRL/WRN ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...

VALID 012251Z - 020015Z



NOSE OF A LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO WRN SD
LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONG UVV SPREADING EWD INTO THE DAKS. THIS
HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AN EXPANDING REGION OF CONVECTION WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS DEVELOPING VCNTY/DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPARENT MCV
ROTATING NEAR KDIK. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL GIVEN THE
CLOUDS/TSTMS...AND INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
NONETHELESS...KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
LATEST MINOT AND BISMARK VWP ALSO SHOW AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE ZONE FROM
GARRISON-MINOT THROUGH 02Z. MORE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST FROM
SERN MT/NERN WY INTO SWRN ND/WRN SD AFTER 00Z. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD/ INTENSE THESE STORMS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING...THOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

TO THE SOUTH...CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE BLACK HILLS
HAS LIKELY ROOTED INTO THE MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTMS
HAVE TAKEN ON A LINEAR MODE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DURING THE EVENING AND APPROACH OF
THE STRONGER WLY WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT...THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO A POTENTIAL LEWPY BOW ECHO. THIS CELL WILL CLIP
SERN PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PIERRE
THROUGH 00Z.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021653Z - 021900Z



UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SALINA AREA THROUGH THE
18-19Z TIME FRAME. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT....ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE...NOW APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF FORCING TO FURTHER MAINTAIN
CONVECTION...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY SLOWLY CONTINUE INTO AREAS EAST
OF WICHITA THROUGH CHANUTE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS
OCCURS...NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE WILL ENHANCE SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES...WHICH
WOULD COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG EASTERN FRINGE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MN/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021954Z - 022200Z



...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS...

SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR MANITOBA/SASK BORDER THROUGH EXTREME
ERN ND AND THEN SE OF A HURON/WINNER SD LINE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN A NARROW CONFLUENCE ZONE...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK...GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LEWP SIGNATURES AS STORMS TRACK NEWD. COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING...WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTN AND
THUS EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED.