Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[CrazyC83]

Note: these are not official forecasts, just my predictions.

Here is what I think will happen tonight:



Here is the risk map for tomorrow:

[wx247]

Severe threat looks to increase overnight, but not with the same tornado threat that earlier was predicted, but never realized. New TStorm Watch is out for Oklahoma until 2 am.

[jhamps10]

Well I would put it up, but my photo site is down right now.

[WaitingForSiren]

use photobucket.com

[jhamps10]

use photobucket.com

That's what I use. It's down for maintence.

[WaitingForSiren]

thats alright I saw your graphic on easternuswx.com , hehe. I am BizarreTriangle.

[wxmann_91]

thats alright I saw your graphic on easternuswx.com , hehe. I am BizarreTriangle.

I had a feeling you were...

[CrazyC83]

Some other servers are comparing the setup to the Super Outbreak...I haven't come close to that comparison yet (no Level 5 alerts here yet), but the widespread potential tomorrow does draw comparison to several last November. This is definitely a tough call to make - I think the potential of a major outbreak is there, but calling for one would be overkill at this point. There are still some things that must happen - the humid air mass must continue north, for example.

I think it will really heat up overnight in the orange zone on the map, and spread out enormously tomorrow morning.

The Mississippi Valley would be ground zero if such happened. However, there is at least a chance from southern Michigan all the way to the Gulf Coast.

[jasons2k]

Decent storms going up west of SAT. We might get some storms here after all.

[Portastorm]

Decent storms going up west of SAT. We might get some storms here after all.

I'm not nearly as good on this storm trajectory stuff as some of y'all, but I'm thinking we (Austin) may be getting hammered around 11 pm if that stuff to our southwest holds together.

[6SpeedTA95]

Things are pickign up a bit here. The southern half ot he state is really starting to get some good supercells going.

The tornado threat looks to be diminishing which is good so I can sleep without worry tonight. I'm just north of Tulsa...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Decent storms going up west of SAT. We might get some storms here after all.

I concur, and it even looks like the cap may be starting to *slowly* errode, and with such a great upper level set up...we may be in for quite an acitve overnight and Thursday morning.

[wxmann_91]

Things are pickign up a bit here. The southern half ot he state is really starting to get some good supercells going.

The tornado threat looks to be diminishing which is good so I can sleep without worry tonight. I'm just north of Tulsa...

Tornado threat is NOT diminishing for your area. New storms should fire to the west, and given good helicity values and marginal instability, any storms rooted in the boundary layer could produce. Sure, SPC has a severe tstorm watch out... oh wait didn't Evansville occur during a severe tstorm watch? Gist is conditions will get more favorable, interestingly, during the middle of the night, as the best lift comes along, from 6-12Z, so do not let down your guard.

[jhamps10]

yep the evansville torando did hit during a severe thunderstorm watch.

[6SpeedTA95]

Things are pickign up a bit here. The southern half ot he state is really starting to get some good supercells going.

The tornado threat looks to be diminishing which is good so I can sleep without worry tonight. I'm just north of Tulsa...

Tornado threat is NOT diminishing for your area. New storms should fire to the west, and given good helicity values and marginal instability, any storms rooted in the boundary layer could produce. Sure, SPC has a severe tstorm watch out... oh wait didn't Evansville occur during a severe tstorm watch? Gist is conditions will get more favorable, interestingly, during the middle of the night, as the best lift comes along, from 6-12Z, so do not let down your guard.

Where'd you get that?

The info I saw (granted its been 2 hours) showed a weaking lift pattern and a linear line of storms with the odds of embedded tornadic activity being quite low

If this has changed I'd like a link...I dont have a weather radio so I may keep one of my PC's up and on NOAA...

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the Houston NWS late night discussion:

SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING INDICATE WARM NOSE FROM
800-700 MB SOMEWHAT ERODING.

[CrazyC83]

Things are pickign up a bit here. The southern half ot he state is really starting to get some good supercells going.

The tornado threat looks to be diminishing which is good so I can sleep without worry tonight. I'm just north of Tulsa...

Tornado threat is NOT diminishing for your area. New storms should fire to the west, and given good helicity values and marginal instability, any storms rooted in the boundary layer could produce. Sure, SPC has a severe tstorm watch out... oh wait didn't Evansville occur during a severe tstorm watch? Gist is conditions will get more favorable, interestingly, during the middle of the night, as the best lift comes along, from 6-12Z, so do not let down your guard.

You're right - the difference between a severe thunderstorm watch and a tornado watch is that in the latter, the conditions are obviously right for tornadoes, while in a severe t-storm watch, they are "only" ripe for severe weather in general. Some severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes very quickly and without warning.

I'd keep the weather radio handy, and if necessary, sleep in the basement (if there is one) if you live in the area of greatest risk.

[jhamps10]

turns out that the flood threat is proving itself to be true. NWS is issuing flood warnings for the Kasaskia river in Vandalia, IL and well this almost always happens, so it aien't that big of a deal but the little wabash river near Clay city, IL (my ol stomping grounds) as well.

Could be a moderate flood on the Kasaskia though.

[wx247]

Things are pickign up a bit here. The southern half ot he state is really starting to get some good supercells going.

The tornado threat looks to be diminishing which is good so I can sleep without worry tonight. I'm just north of Tulsa...

Tornado threat is NOT diminishing for your area. New storms should fire to the west, and given good helicity values and marginal instability, any storms rooted in the boundary layer could produce. Sure, SPC has a severe tstorm watch out... oh wait didn't Evansville occur during a severe tstorm watch? Gist is conditions will get more favorable, interestingly, during the middle of the night, as the best lift comes along, from 6-12Z, so do not let down your guard.

Where'd you get that?

The info I saw (granted its been 2 hours) showed a weaking lift pattern and a linear line of storms with the odds of embedded tornadic activity being quite low

If this has changed I'd like a link...I dont have a weather radio so I may keep one of my PC's up and on NOAA...

I have been getting mixed signals like this all night. For example, local mets have been downplaying the severe threat but some of the indexes look very favorable for severe weather overnight. SPC still has us in a moderate risk, too. Argh... weather is so fickle sometimes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 11&loop=no

Those storms just west of Austin now have warnings up for them and have the potential to produce GOLF BALL sized hail and 60mph winds! I would not be surprised to see a watch go up in that area soon, and it looks like these cells may work all the way over toward Houston by early Thursday morning.