Texas Spring 2025

[txtwister78]

Definitely some encouraging 12z model runs that generate some decent rainfall amounts today across SC TX.

Hopefully that verifies. Curious to see if SPC adds a marginal risk in their next update.

[wxman22]

Looking like a quasi linear squall line will move in from the west later this afternoon/evening. Not expecting anything major but interesting nonetheless to see how everything plays out today. Could have a more significant threat Sunday though… Maybe an Enhanced Risk incoming on Sunday?

[rwfromkansas]

Is it me or are the latest HRRR runs pushing things back with less severity?

This is my shocked face. It's why I don't really buy them until day of...

[snownado]

Severe T'storm Watch has been issued for part of N. Texas and S. Oklahoma until 4pm, including Texoma and the NE DFW suburbs (Collin County)

[snownado]

Looking like a quasi linear squall line will move in from the west later this afternoon/evening. Not expecting anything major but interesting nonetheless to see how everything plays out today. Could have a more significant threat Sunday though… Maybe an Enhanced Risk incoming on Sunday?

https://i.ibb.co/C5b7L1nN/IMG-0439.png

https://i.ibb.co/TM24851Z/IMG-0438.png

Given how much HRRR is struggling with the ongoing convection just north of the Red River, I'd take that with a tiny grain of salt.

[wxman22]

[txtwister78]

HRRR has been brutal with these past few setups/events. WRF members and RRFS definitely more bullish across SC TX today so should be a good test case to see which verifies.

[wxman22]

HRRR has been brutal with these past few setups/events. WRF members and RRFS definitely more bullish across SC TX today so should be a good test case to see which verifies.

[snownado]

SPC has upgraded Texoma and the NW half of DFW to an Enhanced Risk for today, mainly for hail (30% hatched) but there's also a 15% hatch for wind now as well.

[wxman22]

Well I wasn’t expecting an Enhanced Risk today…

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across
the southern Plains, especially across north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards,
with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible.

...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas...
Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved
this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely
persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient,
potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon.
Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated
generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating
interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively
destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE
plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of
nearby north Texas.

Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed
development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the
ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional
development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the
Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with
damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well,
although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall.

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh, ehanced for me. It went from marginal the other day (which I completely ignore) to enhanced.

[snownado]

Severe T'storm Watch has been issued for part of N. Texas and S. Oklahoma until 4pm, including Texoma and the NE DFW suburbs (Collin County)

Watch has been expanded a row of counties or two SW, now including Denton County in DFW.

Stratus did eventually move in intermittently, but has since mixed out with full insolation back underway.

[HockeyTx82]

Okay so exactly what and when are we expecting things now for say the Denton area?

Is it the storms we see now or are we talking later on in the evening?

[snownado]

Tornado Warning now for Winstar Casino.

[HockeyTx82]

Tornado Warning now for Winstar Casino.

I'm out walking the UNT Campus. I can see that Thunderhead all the way from here. I mean granted it's not that far but still.

[WacoWx]

The storm north of Denton doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was near the red river, but that could be proximity to the radar issues. Hopefully, this thing weakens and just skirts the northeast edge of Dallas and leaves the metro alone.

[snownado]

The storm north of Denton doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was near the red river, but that could be proximity to the radar issues. Hopefully, this thing weakens and just skirts the northeast edge of Dallas and leaves the metro alone.

The cells still look pretty impressive, and they're liable to re-intensify with the full sunshine to the SW

[HockeyTx82]

Is that an outflow boundary pushing on the South Southwest side of that storm?

[snownado]

Is that an outflow boundary pushing on the South Southwest side of that storm?

Yes. Could be a trigger for additional storms as well.

[WacoWx]

Slight rotation developing over Sanger.