MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NE TX...NW LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 263...
   
   VALID 291934Z - 292100Z
   
   RISK FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21-22Z NEAR THE
   OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...INCLUDING THE FORT SMITH AND TEXARKANA
   AREAS.
   
   SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   CENTER IS SLOWLY DEEPENING...AND NOW APPEARS CENTERED SOUTH OF
   MUSKOGEE OK...WHERE MORE RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
   OCCURRED.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   THE FORT SMITH AR AREA THROUGH 21-22Z...WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE
   PRESSURE FALL CENTER DEVELOPS CLOSER TO TEXARKANA IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS
   NORTHEAST TEXAS.  70 TO 75 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMA IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SOUTHERLY 850
   MB WINDS NOW UP TO 50 KT JUST EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER.
   CONVECTION MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SEEMS
   LIKELY TO BECOME SO WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   35309482 36099454 35849346 34719315 33909261 33139322
   33259423 33759453

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR TO NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 263...
   
   VALID 292326Z - 300100Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WIND
   SHIFT...
   
   SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS HAVE
   DEVELOPED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM NRN AR...SWD INTO NCNTRL LA.
   THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN ASCENT REGION OF UPPER JET...BUT
   WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 250J/KG.  IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN
   INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
   HEATING AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD DOWNSTREAM.  GREATEST
   RISK OF SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BRIEF TORNADO OR PERHAPS A
   DAMAGING WIND GUST.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   32159292 34309294 36349300 36109191 32489196

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 264...
   
   VALID 300114Z - 300245Z
   
   ...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SERN LA...
   
   WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER SERN
   LA...STRETCHING FROM ST HELENA PARISH TO IBERIA PARISH.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN
   EDGE OF THE WATCH BETWEEN 0230Z-0300Z. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE A BIT MORE STABLE WHICH WHEN
   INGESTED WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING NEAR THE MS RIVER.
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME GIVEN
   THE LINEAR STORM MODE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29819139 30389068 31489015 30858968 29468897 29209125

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 300711Z - 300845Z
   
   AREAS FROM THE MS DELTA EAST ACROSS SRN AL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR TSTM TRENDS EARLY TODAY.
   
   IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA INDICATED A
   GRADUAL DEMISE OF PRE-FRONTAL MCS FROM SERN LA ACROSS SRN MS THIS
   MORNING. A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS PERSIST NEAR THE SRN EDGE
   OF STRATIFORM RAIN REGION...FROM ST. TAMMANY PARISH ACROSS PEARL
   RIVER AND STONE COUNTIES IN SRN MS. EVEN THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A
   GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS. STRONGER
   MASS INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPEARS
   TO BE DIRECTED NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST WARM SECTOR EARLY
   TODAY...WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET SITUATED OVER THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY. NONETHELESS...SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS UPWARD MOTION
   AND QPF ACROSS THE MS DELTA AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS CONTINUES TO
   TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS
   MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE TO
   CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION.
   GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...STORM TRENDS WILL
   NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.
   
   WHILE NOT IMMINENT...A TORNADO WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NOTED EARLY TODAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   29068925 29169073 31339156 31258791 30488749 29608821

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...
   
   VALID 301240Z - 301345Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE MS DELTA
   REGION THIS MORNING.
   
   WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF SLOW
   MOVING FRONT ACROSS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MS DELTA. SLIDELL RAOB
   INDICATED RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY... AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OVER 400
   M2/S2 FOR AN ENEWD STORM MOTION/. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
   CONDUCIVE TO BOTH SCATTERED TSTMS...AND UPDRAFT ROTATION...FOR AT
   LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   29068938 29739028 30839028 31318841 29988832 29228868

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL AR THRU MUCH OF SRN/ERN MO...PARTS
   OF W CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 301530Z - 301700Z
   
   NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE
   MID DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SOUTH OF DEEP OCCLUDED SURFACE
   CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES IA.  LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING HAS
   OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
   INHIBITION IS WEAK...AND WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE HEATING...IT
   APPEARS MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY 18-19Z. THIS
   SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR IN WAKE OF OCCLUDED FRONT ARE
   NOT STRONG...BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF
   UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS...BENEATH CONTINUING STRONG
   SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW. SOME HAIL/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
   STRONGEST STORMS.  ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
   CRITERIA...AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...IF ANY...SEEMS UNLIKELY UNTIL AFTER
   AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...
   
   38169375 39159232 40419186 39869093 38819024 37299062
   36549101 35829254 36399312 37319413

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE AR/WRN TN THRU PARTS OF SE MO/MO
   BOOTHEEL...SRN IL AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301620Z - 301745Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   NARROW MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERS THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  THIS IS
   SUPPORTING WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT...INSTABILITY NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF
   OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
    ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW.  COOLING ALOFT...IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...COULD YIELD MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.  WEAKENING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REDUCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SOME...BUT MODERATELY
   STRONG CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
   FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   37338986 37928945 38328889 38018828 37138806 36238861
   35498907 35098967 35119042

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED......EXTREME NE AR AND MUCH OF SE MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...
   
   VALID 301804Z - 301930Z
   
   CONTINUE WW. 
   
   LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGEST STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
   BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE EASTERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.  MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS JUST
   NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THIS REGION...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
   SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE WEST PLAINS/POPLAR BLUFFS AREAS INTO THE
   VICINITY OF FARMINGTON/CAPE GIRARDEAU BY AROUND 20Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   37389131 37509072 37378999 36598999 36239093 36319175
   36559198 37079177

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE AR...SE MO...WRN TN...WRN KY INTO SRN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...
   
   VALID 301930Z - 302130Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING TORNADO THREAT...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE MISSOURI
   BOOTHEEL.
   
   AS A MID-LEVEL COLD CORE/SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
   NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AREA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES.
   THIS WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH LINGERING NARROW LOW-LEVEL MOIST
   AXIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SEEM
   LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A MORE BACKED/SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION BENEATH 30 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB.  GIVEN BETTER LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AS STRONGER STORMS
   DEVELOP INTO AREA BOUNDED BY JONESBORO AR/POPLAR BLUFF MO/CARBONDALE
   IL/DYERS BURG TN THROUGH 22-23Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   36559084 37509039 37988956 37778877 37098863 35908922
   35659022 35899074

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS AND NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301943Z - 302145Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
   THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. PORTIONS OF
   NERN OK AND SERN KS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT IN 20Z OUTLOOK.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY WARM TEMPERATURES NOW IN PLACE
   ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND NW TX WITH CONTINUED STRONG HEATING.
   MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT UPPER VORT MAX
   SHIFTING SEWD ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. INCREASING
   SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP INCREASE
   CONVERGENCE AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SCATTERED STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A WIND THREAT SHOULD AN
   ORGANIZED CLUSTER/COLD POOL FORM...AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN
   COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
   
   FURTHER...GIVEN INCREASING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND FAVORABLE
   SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING ACROSS NERN OK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   35829765 36259917 36769963 37529942 37879870 37719685
   37409501 37009474 35919467 35289498

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...EXTREME WCNTRL IND...FAR W
   KY...EXTREME NERN AR AND EXTREME NWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302225Z - 010000Z
   
   NRN END OF THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS CNTRL IL APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
   LATE THIS AFTN AS STORMS MOVE ATOP THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
   LOCATED ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND.  NO WW IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER
   EAST INTO IND.
   
   STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE LWR OH VLY REGION FROM SERN MO
   INTO THE SRN TIP OF IL.  DISCRETE CELLS HAVE EVOLVED INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS AS THE ENTIRE LINE OF STORMS HAS BECOME LARGELY PARALLEL
   WITH THE 2-6KM SHEAR.  BUT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   A THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL.  AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LWR
   OH VLY...THE EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN THE REGION JUST WEST THROUGH N OF
   KPAH. 
   
   FINALLY...FARTHER WEST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   DEEPENED/WARMED...SMALL TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT GIVEN
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS ERN MO.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...
   
   35509120 37459092 40259170 40258733 39028721 35418914

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME NERN AR
   AND EXTREME WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 010045Z - 010145Z
   
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING.
   
   THAT PORTION OF THE LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY
   HAS DIMINISHED OWING TO STORMS MOVING EWD INTO A COOLER BOUNDARY
   LAYER. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES UPSTREAM ACROSS AR WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED MORE STRONGLY TODAY.  PARCELS FEEDING THE
   SUPERCELL IN THE MO BOOTHEEL ORIGINATE FROM THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE
   STORM COULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 02-03Z. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   REMAINS DECIDEDLY BACKED VCNTY THIS STORM AND THE TORNADO THREAT
   WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM.  AFTER THAT...IT IS REASONABLE TO
   EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN THE STRENGTH AND WEAKENING STORM STRUCTURE.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   36409024 38538850 38418820 37408822 36538880 35779001

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK/NW ARKANSAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...
   
   VALID 010240Z - 010415Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO ACROSS
   NORTHEAST OK AND NW ARKANSAS WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS...
   
   LEAD BOWING SEGMENT NOW IN MADISON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NW AR
   HAS A HISTORY OF STRONG WINDS WITH MEASURED GUSTS OF 47-49 MPH ON OK
   MESONET AT WESTVILLE/INOLA EARLIER. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
   NOTED ON FORT SMITH VAD WIND DATA SUGGESTS THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE
   TO POSE AN ISOLD THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS /MAINLY IN THE 35-45 MPH
   RANGE/ AS IT CONTINUES INTO NCNTRL AR. STRONGER STORM NOW NORTH OF
   TULSA REMAINS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS IT RACES SEWD
   AROUND 45 KT. WW 268 HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED THROUGH 04Z ACROSS
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH WW 269 IN EFFECT ACROSS NW AR.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   34949296 35379503 35439658 36699697 36979661 37009470
   36369289

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SRN/SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR
   WRN KY...FAR NWRN TN...FAR NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011922Z - 012015Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
   CENTRAL MO...THEN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN MO.  HAIL/STRONG
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
   
   18Z MESOSCALE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN
   IL SWWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL-SWRN MO INTO NERN-CENTRAL OK.  LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH FROM
   EAST CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL MO NEAR TBN TO SUPPORT SURFACE
   BASED STORMS.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION
   ATTM PER TRENDS IN WIND PROFILER DATA/12-18Z SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE
   INHIBITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING THUS FAR. 
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER
   CENTRAL KS/NRN OK...AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD FURTHER
   WEAKEN CAP PER 18Z SGF SOUNDING...WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   LIKELY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
   MAXIMIZED.  MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37539211 38129135 38859083 38898934 36728809 35908885
   36499209 36489353 37099377

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX / SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012117Z - 012315Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG
   COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN MO. INITIATION WILL FIRST OCCUR
   ACROSS NWRN TX...WITH ANOTHER AREA EXPECTED FROM SWRN MO INTO NERN
   OK / NWRN AR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG/PERHAPS SVR WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE LIKELY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NOW INTO NWRN TX WHERE IT HAS BECOME HOT.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM
   WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE 50S. GIVEN
   ADDITIONAL HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...SCATTERED
   STORMS WILL BE LIKELY NW TX INTO SRN OK. BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   ALSO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG
   BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS LINEAR...A FEW CELLS MAY CONSOLIDATE
   INTO LONGER LIVED/POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING.
   
   FARTHER N...INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATER...COOLING
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. 18Z SGF SOUNDING
   AND LATEST VWPS OUT OF THE AREA SHOW WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM
   NEAR FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FARTHER S OF
   COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   32880030 33619936 34149861 35089733 35829628 36589538
   37209435 37289333 36609273 32849800 32349912 32339991
   32600028

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN/ERN MO AND SWRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...
   
   VALID 012359Z - 020130Z
   
   23Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF KSTL TO JUST
   NORTH OF KSGF...THEN WWD TO A MESOLOW EAST OF KTUL TO NWRN TX.
   STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN MO INTO SWRN
   IL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.
   FARTHER W...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ACROSS
   NWRN AR AND ERN OK...EXCEPT LOCALLY VCNTY THE MESOLOW.
   ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS
   MOVING ACROSS WCNTRL MO. 
   
   TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL MO LATE THIS
   AFTN HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY/CHARACTER...PROBABLY
   GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FARTHER W...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO
   BEEN DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
   
   THROUGH 03Z...THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
   AND VEER TO SWLY...MAXIMIZING STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SERN
   MO AND SWRN IL.  THUS...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
   THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY EAST OF KTBN-KVIH-KUNO EWD INTO THE LWR OH
   VLY.  FARTHER W...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
   MAY NOT BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR UNTIL
   WELL-AFTER 03Z.  THUS...WRN PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
   TRIMMED EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   KINEMATICALLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS
   EXTREME SERN MO AND SWRN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
   WITH 0-1KM SRH AOA 150 M2/S2.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36609498 39489030 38988883 36638936 36379162 34869475
   35339548

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN TX / FAR SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...
   
   VALID 020051Z - 020215Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF
   OF WW 270. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO
   FAR SRN OK.
   
   00Z FWD AND OKC SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN PLACE WITH MUCH IMPROVED MOISTURE PROFILE IN FWD SOUNDING
   COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY. AREA PROFILERS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO...WITH VEERING
   UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK AND TX. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
   NOT OPTIMAL...BACKING SFC-850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. WITH MODEST
   WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS WILL
   LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.
   
   STORMS ACROSS NRN TX ARE MAINLY REGENERATING ON THEIR OWN
   OUTFLOW...BUT FARTHER N A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS SRN OK. NEW
   DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS LOW
   LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   34739646 33159684 31479857 31570018 32930016 34529902

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN IL...SWRN IND AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020105Z - 020230Z
   
   TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD FROM THE MID-MS VLY EWD INTO
   SWRN IND AND WRN KY THROUGH 03Z.  INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY REQUIRE A WW FOR
   PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD
   ACROSS MO THIS EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SLY LLJ WAS BEGINNING
   TO ACCELERATE AND SHOULD VEER WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z.
   CONSEQUENTLY...MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
   SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY...SUPPORTING TSTMS.
   
   STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EWD TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
   70 WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED THE MOST THIS AFTN.
   FURTHERMORE...PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD
   ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE WILL SPREAD INTO THIS REGION
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A 60 KT H5 JET MAX
   ARRIVES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY
   WILL TEND TO GROW INTO A MCS AS STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER...EVENTUALLY BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO SERN MO
   AND FAR WRN KY. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT IN THE LWR OH VLY
   MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...BUT A TENDENCY FOR BOW
   ECHO EVOLUTION /DAMAGING WINDS/ SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   39348914 39638940 39838877 39858787 39398717 38858666
   37908664 37088693 36638862 36658905

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020312Z - 020445Z
   
   SMALL MCV IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY VCNTY KSTL AND IS PROBABLY A
   REFLECTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MS RVR
   VLY ATTM.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE FROM SCNTRL IL SWWD INTO AREAS NEAR/S
   OF KSTL.  DESPITE THE WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE TO THE UPPER
   TROUGH...PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST
   INSTABILITY...STORMS HAVE ONLY BEEN BRIEFLY MAINTAINING CHARACTER
   WITH ONLY SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTS THIS EVENING.  LEAD ACTIVITY
   SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD SWRN IND AND COULD STILL
   PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
   
   UPSTREAM...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/BACKBUILDING WWD ALONG/N OF A WEAK
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SLY LLJ CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
   ERN OK/AR ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  THESE
   STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  THUS... STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
   OBTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
   WINDS LATER TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY.  IF STORMS
   BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE WEATHER...A NEW WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
   
   37559339 39878736 38888683 37708736 36608814 36519302

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020550Z - 020745Z
   
   TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT SITUATED
   ACROSS SERN OK. A FEW CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. A WATCH WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS STALLED FRONT WAS INTENSIFYING COINCIDENT
   WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND THIS PROCESS HAS
   PROBABLY AIDED IN RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ECNTRL OK.
   SPRINGTIME THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG LIFT
   WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THE
   FRONTAL INVERSION. MOISTENING WITHIN THE FRONTAL INVERSION WAS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. MODEST NWLY
   MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL JET WAS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST AND ROTATE.
   DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
   REGION...STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND WEAK INHIBITION...COMBINED WITH
   PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL
   ROBUST CONVECTION.
   
   ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD/REGENERATE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN WELL DEFINED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE.
   ADDITIONALLY...EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER COULD DEVELOP UPSCALE
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION...WITH ATTENDANT ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
   
   34509594 34139751 34939817 35669768 36159620 36149464
   34869440