Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST TUE APR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE REST OF TODAY...AS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN RETURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...EXCEPT OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE
GPS MET DATA AT BAYAMON AND ST. CROIX HAVE SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.2 INCHES...ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT BELOW OF
NORMAL. CERTAINLY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY SUPPORTED
BY THE STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TOMORROW. CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION COULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AS THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A RAPID EROSION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A DRYING TREND AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM THURSDAY
TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH EXPECTED AROUND TJBQ...TJMZ...AND TJPS DUE
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WIND MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AFTER 24/00Z AND WINDS DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. LONG TERM...MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SOLID NE SWELL AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 84 / 10 40 40 0
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Active weather is expected today as a trough is just north of PR. Scattered showers and also thunderstorms are expected but as the trough moves away on Thursday,the weather will improve by then.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...DECREASING BY
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TJSJ 24/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.36
INCHES...BUT THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.70 OR EVEN MORE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA. THESE FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER
THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DRYING TREND AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY
A RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES TIL
24/13Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID-LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL BRING PASSING
SHRA ACTIVITY AND BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ISLANDS TIL AT
LEAST 24/15Z. FM 24/17Z-25/00Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY OVR N CENTRAL AND W-NW PR...WITH OCNL STREAMER CONVECTION OFF
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS AND VCTY EL YUNQUE PR. DCR CLDS AND SHRA
ACTIVITY OVR ISLANDS AND LOCAL FA AFT 25/00Z. LLVL WINDS FM E TO SE
10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG LGT AND VRB UP TO FL150...BCMG FM W AND
INCR W/HT ABV...WITH MAX WND OF 65-70 KTS NR FL350.

&&

.MARINE...ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 40 40 20 50
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 30 20 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 24 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO START
DECREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MOST COASTAL AREAS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALSO OBSERVED RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...CAUSING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS
RIVER RISES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH
PUTS SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL
CAUSE MVFR/IFS CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY 25/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 40 20 50 50
STT 74 85 75 85 / 30 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

A longer updated discussion than what they normally do.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST WED APR 24 2013

.UPDATE...THE 25/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO BUT
SHOWED A ONE EIGHTH INCH DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE
MORNING 24/12Z SOUNDING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES AT 500 AND 250 MB...WELL NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CAME IN STRONGLY SHORTLY AFTER 24/21Z AND CLEARED OUT MOST
OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WERE CALM IN THE LOWEST 500 FEET OR SO OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THERE
ARE SOME 10 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KFT THAT WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATER
TONIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO
GOOD CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION TOMORROW SO WOULD EXPECT
FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND FEWER AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK SO THAT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN IN THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE
WIND FLOW...WHICH IN MOST CASES WILL BE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO NOW THAT WINDS ARE FAVORING THE EAST
NORTHEAST. ALSO A CUT-OFF LOW AT MID LEVELS DROPS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND IS REINFORCED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING
BEGINNING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW. THIS WILL DRIFT
LITTLE BUT WILL FAVOR ONSHORE SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT FL040-FL090 WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE USVI
AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z.
AFT 25/16Z...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CORDILLERA AND THEN IN AND AROUND TJPS BTWN 18Z-22Z. WINDS
WILL BACK TO NE BY 25/12Z...AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 5 KFT. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 50-60KT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ABV 28 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE BELOW 7 FEET EVERYWHERE WITH BUOY 41043
SEEING 6 FEET AND BUOY 41053 REPORTING LESS THAN 5 FEET. DO NOT
EXPECT SEAS OF 6 FEET IN THE LOCAL OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS BELOW 8 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. As the trough moves away,drier weather will move to PR starting today and lasting thru the weekend.Only a few showers will occur in the afternoon and some during the night in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU APR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH AXIS
IS JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECT TO INDUCE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...WHICH PUTS SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AS THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CT-BKN LOW TO MID LVL CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL090 WITH
ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FA. VFR CONDS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TIL AT LEAST 25/18Z. THEREAFTER...SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
PR...WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND TJPS
BTWN 18Z-22Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO NE BY 25/12Z...AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM
SFC-FL050 KFT. A SUBTROPICAL JET BTW OF 50-65KT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ABV FL300.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AT 17 KNOTS
OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 25 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST THU APR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE WATERS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE PREVAILING WIND SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND DRIER AIR STARTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THAT TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW PROMPTED CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST PR AS WAS ANTICIPATED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE. THIS MEANS
THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PR ON
FRIDAY DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING...THE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED
AS WELL. HOWEVER...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CAUSING
MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING TJPS AND TIST BUT ALSO POSSIBLE SHRA IN
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TISX. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. AFTER 26/00Z...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FROM THE ENE TO NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AT 17 KNOTS
OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 85 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands this weekend but no big rain event is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 AM AST FRI APR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE
FILLING AND BEING REPLACED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC AND HIGH ZONAL
FLOW BY SUNDAY. INDUCED LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES TODAY...THEN ENTERS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AT LEAST INTO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS TJSJ 2/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NOW
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS...
ALL SUGGEST A CONTINUED DRYING TREND WITH DECREASING PWAT VALUES
WITH LESSER MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH INITIALIZED WELL SHOWED DECREASING PWAT VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THEREFORE...FOR TODAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO ALLOW FOR BRIEF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. DUE TO THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO
RICO SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION. OVER THE WEEKEND...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR THE
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AN POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 26/18Z. AFTER 26/18Z...SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND TJPS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FM THE SFC-FL050.
A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 50-65KT BTW FL350-FL400 WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6-7 FOOT IN ENE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
PEAKING TO NEAR 8 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE GO IN EFFECT TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 26 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[Gustywind]

Given Meteo-France Guadeloupe, looks like a very strong cell of tstorms is stationnary since this morning and continues to spread more than nicely on some localities like les Grands-Fonds and Pointe-à-Pitre and even close to the airport Le Raizet. In two hours this morning, rainfall reached 50 to 65 millimeters. I will keep you informed if the situations evolves quickly.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST FRI APR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROF EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL PULL AWAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER ZONAL FLOW RESTRICTING ANY
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. BUT DO EXPECT TYPICAL ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA OVR WRN PR BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A
WETTER SCENARIO WITH A DEEP SERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER ERN NOAM ADVECTING HIGHER TPW INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
STARTING NEXT THU AND CONTINUING THRU SAT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJPS WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. WIND EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SAT THRU EARLY SUN. SCA`S ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 75 85 / 30 30 20 20
STT 74 85 75 85 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather with only some showers will prevail this weekend. But things turn more moist as May arrives and the wet season normally begins.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SAT APR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION LEAVING A HIGH ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO WEAKEN TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WHICH WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY AN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND SUNNY SKIES ON TAB FOR
TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT/SUPPRESS MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION.
THIS OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO IS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE WEST
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A SHORT DURATION.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND ...ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER MOISTURE PATTERN WITH LAYERED
PWAT VALUES INCREASING UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE AS WE TRANSITION
INTO THE MONTH OF MAY...WHEN CONDITIONS NORMALLY START TO BECOME
HOT AND HUMID WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 17/16Z
AND ACROSS TJPS BETWEEN 27/18Z-22Z DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...
INCREASING TO 10-15KT AFTER 27/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...NE SWELL ACTION HAS NOW ARRIVED AT THE OUTER BUOYS NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHEAST BUOY 40144 ALREADY REGISTERING SEAS
OF 9 FEET AT 16 TO 17 SECS...WHILE 41043 SHOWED INCREASING SEAS
OF 7 AROUND 11 SECS. THE SAN JUAN BUOY SHOWED STEADILY INCREASING
SEAS NOW AROUND 5 FEET AT 10 SECS. EXPECT THE SWELL ACTION TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES AND PEAK ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 85 75 / 30 20 30 20
STT 84 75 85 76 / 30 10 30 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 27 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SAT APR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THRU MID NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS
WEAK BROAD LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BASICALLY RESTRICTING MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE REGION BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECT PORTIONS OF PR AND THE
USVI...HOWEVER THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY VFR.
TJPS...TJMZ...AND TISX MAY OBSERVE MODERATE SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TJPS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING ONLY ISOLD PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 INDICATED NORTHEAST SWELLS PEAKED AT 10 FT 17
SECS AT 18Z AND USING SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS YIELDS 9 FT 18 SEC
SWELLS ON THE COAST AND WITH A 45 DEG DIRECTION RESULTS IN 8 TO 12
FT BREAKERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS BORDERLINE...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR WHICH COULD ALSO BE
CONSIDERED AN OUT OF SEASON SWELL EVENT. GIVEN THAT SWELLS THESE
HIGH ARE TYPICALLY NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DECIDED
TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO ALERT PEOPLE TO HIGHTENED ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 85 76 85 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. For the ladder part of this week,a big increase in moisture is expected so stay tuned for more information about that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SUN APR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW SUPPORTED BY A 1006
MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALSO
CONTINUE TO INDUCE AND MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...LEADING TO A
LOOSENING OF LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS DECREASING THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MOST OF THE ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING... WITH LESSER CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER MOISTURE PATTERN
WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES AS A DEEP LAYERED TONGUE
TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE
STILL LOOKING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. MORE TO COME ON THIS AS
THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 28/12Z
AND ACROSS TJPS BETWEEN 28/18Z-22Z DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...
INCREASING TO 10-15KT AFTER 28/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH OF THE BUOYS 41043 AND 41044 INDICATED THAT THE NORTHEAST
SWELLS HAD PEAKED...BUT WERE STILL GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FEET
AROUND 15 SECS. THE SAN JUAN BUOY ALSO SHOWED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET AROUND
16 SECS. BASED ON THE RECENT DATA THESE SWELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT
LEAST UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTENED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 28 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of the localized rainy episode (due to a strong stationnary tstorm cell) who spreaded on some localities in Guadeloupe Friday.

Torrents of water on the region pointoise

France-Antilles Guadeloupe 27.04.2013

(Roberto Bhandiwad)

http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 215113.php

The memory of the evening of May 7, 2012, where the pointoise agglomeration was under water, came back in people's minds, Friday afternoon. Indeed, a quasi-stationary, storm-thunderstorm cell gave rise to marked on the Grands-Fonds and region pointoise precipitation, resulting in a rising waters. Weather France, announced at the end of day on Friday, rollups around 100 mm.

Late morning, within two hours, he fell on the Grands-Fonds and agglomeration pointoise rollups of the order of 50 to 65 mm of water.

As each persistent wet episode, these are the neighborhoods of old Pointe-à-Pitre - on the side of the careers of Pointe-à-Pitre, funds Laugier, Alexandre-Isaac, Vatable - and in les Abymes, Petit-Peru and Chandran, sectors among others, who have been affected.A SCHOOL EVACUATED

This brutal rising waters took precautions, including evacuation by firefighters, in early afternoon, some 770 pupils of the school of our Lady of le Raizet - put in safety at the Creps - and the call for caution from Mayor of Abymes.

Note that these heavy localized rainfall resulted in flooding on some roads of les Abymes, on the side of the seat of Crédit agricole, which resulted in disruption of traffic.

Late Friday afternoon, after a brief stint in yellow vigilance for "heavy rains and storms", weather France informed back to the level of vigilance green meaning the end of alert.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN APR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU MID WEEK WITH SERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE THROUGH
WED AS JET STREAK LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS COULD BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THU AND DEEPENS
FURTHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A TROUGH FCST
TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT
BUT A 850 AND 700 THERE IS STRONG RIDGING WHICH COULD BE AN
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PR IS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJPS BEFORE 29/00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN NORTHEAST SWELLS.
SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS BUT
EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 86 / 10 10 20 20