Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
PASSES ON FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE WESTERLY JET WILL THEN PASS
OVERHEAD TOWARD THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE
PINCHED FROM THE NORTH BY A PASSING TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CORE
OF MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS MOVES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WITH WEAK MOISTURE ON SATURDAY THEN DRIER
UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC PATTERN AND WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BANDED AT
THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT
ACTIVITY INCREASED STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
TO A NUMBER OF AREAS...INCLUDING NAGUABO AND GUAYNABO WHERE
FLOODING AND RIVER RISES WERE REPORTED. THE BEST MOISTURE HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE LAND AREAS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS RICH UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS REGENERATED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE MOVES IN ON NORTHEAST FLOW ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY
ALSO AT LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB APPEARS TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE COMPLETE 12Z GFS MODEL WAS NOT
AVAILABLE AT FORECAST RELEASE TIME BEYOND 156 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ MOST LIKELY TAF LOCATIONS TO
HAVE MVFR OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN OBSC.
FOR TIST AND TISX VCSH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-20
KT BLO 10KFT THEN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ABV 13KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO
INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE
LOCAL WATERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT SEAS WILL REACH 6
FEET IN THE OUTER ZONES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL TODAY CONTINUES TO POSE A SERIOUS
THREAT OF FLOODING IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF A LAND SLIDE IN UTUADO
FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF TUESDAY. THE BASINS WITH HEADWATERS IN THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN BASINS REMAIN AT
HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING FROM THE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PARTICULAR ATTENTION SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ON THE RIO NAGUABO AND THE RIO CULEBRINAS DUE TO THEIR
CURRENT HIGH FLOWS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...NEXRAD NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO DUAL POL UPGRADE. TDWR CHANNEL A
ONLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 75 84 / 60 60 40 40
STT 77 86 75 85 / 60 60 40 50

[Macrocane]

Rainy season is about to start in Central America and the first wave like feature is going to arrive this weekend, currently it is analyzed as a surface trough:

LOOKING AHEAD...A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS HELPED DEVELOP
A CARIBBEAN WAVE/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING AN INTERESTING SCENARIO
TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE KEY FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
WAVE/TROUGH...HOWEVER OTHER KEY VARIABLES INCLUDE THE MONSOON
TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC...AND GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
TEHUANTEPEC INDUCED BY THE WAVE/TROUGH. THE LATEST SCENARIO
DEPICTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE WAVE/TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN
SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FAR E PACIFIC
THIS WEEKEND. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE/TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
LATE THIS WEEKEND. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL BE INDUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE WAVE/TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE NE PACIFIC WATERS. THIS
GAP WIND EVENT WILL HELP FURTHER INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR BAROTROPIC GROWTH OF THE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO DOES EXTEND
SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE FUTURE...AND CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE DURING
THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
848 PM AST WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO SUCCUMB THU AS
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 70W MOVES OVR TOP OF IT. A SECOND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR THE ERN GMEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT WILL
LEAD TO THINING OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS. CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
DAY TOMORROW AND HIGHER MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
COULD STILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ERN PR
AND THE NRN USVI. SHARP S/W TROUGH OVR THE ERN GMEX ATTM WILL
REACH 70W FRI AFTERNOON AND HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THERE COULD BE SOME PRETTY ROBUST CONVECTION FRI DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS. STEERING WILL BECOME FROM
THE WEST FRI AND SAT WITH TSTMS FORMING OVR THE INTERIOR AND THEN
TRACKING EWD. SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF S/W TROUGH IF TROF
AXIS MOVES RAPIDLY THE DAY COULD TURN OUT FAIRLY DECENT BUT IF NOT
IT COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. BY SUN...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TROF
AXIS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 09/12Z...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PR AND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AFTER 09/15Z. DAYTIME
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WIND WAVES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGTHLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS. TSTMS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY OVER ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 75 84 / 60 60 40 40
STT 77 86 75 85 / 60 60 40 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. Mothers day looks like it will be with good weather.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOME SHOWERS
NOTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO DUE TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC WHICH IS PROVIDED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...
MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SLOPES...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ON
MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IF ITS AXIS MOVES RAPIDLY...THE DAY COULD
TURN OUT FAIRLY DECENT...BUT IF NOT...IT COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR DURING MORNING XCP MVFR/ISOLD IFR IN SCT SHRA TJSJ/
TIST/TNCM. NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA IN AFT NORTH PR/ST THOMAS/ST MARTIN WI
MTN OBSC...ISOLD/SCT FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL WIND BLO FL100 E 10-20 KT
BCMG SE TONITE. WIND WSW WI INCR SPD ABV FL100. LITTLE CHG FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WIND WAVES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGTHLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY OVER
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 70 40 40 30
STT 86 75 86 76 / 60 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 9 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning &  Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[Gustywind]

Hello everyone. Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are Under an yellow alert since this morning 6AM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
Looks like an active band of showers and tsotrms is moving towards us. Meteo-France expected strong showers today. Be aware Msbee.

[msbee]

Hi Gusty
I'm in my house staying dry. It's been riaining all morning here. We are under a flash flood watch. I am sure some of the lower lying areas are flooded out.
Right now the rain is light but I suspect we will have more coming our way.
How are things in Guadeloupe?
and how are things in PR. Luis?

[cycloneye]

Hi Gusty
I'm in my house staying dry. It's been riaining all morning here. We are under a flash flood watch. I am sure some of the lower lying areas are flooded out.
Right now the rain is light but I suspect we will have more coming our way.
How are things in Guadeloupe?
and how are things in PR. Luis?

Rainy here Barbara with flash flooding going on. Mothers day looks relatively good weatherwise

[msbee]

Ok, Luis
stay dry

What happened to PR radar btw?

[cycloneye]

Ok, Luis
stay dry

What happened to PR radar btw?

They are installing a new radar with new technology that hopefully will be ready by next week.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=dualpol

[msbee]

ok, great!

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty
I'm in my house staying dry. It's been riaining all morning here. We are under a flash flood watch. I am sure some of the lower lying areas are flooded out.
Right now the rain is light but I suspect we will have more coming our way.
How are things in Guadeloupe?
and how are things in PR. Luis?

Hi Barbara glad that you're ok. Things are super calm here. Fair and dry weather. Looks like as you mentionned it, conditions should maybe deteriorate, if any, this afternoon. We will see...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU MAY 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
ROTATE TROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM A LOW
THAT FORMS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND ON FRIDAY. TROUGHING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE
TRAILING FROM THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND PEAK ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS PEAK TONIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING BUT MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN. THE 24 HOUR TOTAL AT SAN JUAN AS OF 3 PM AST TODAY WAS
3.50 INCHES. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SAN JUAN WILL REACH THEIR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
DAY OF 2.74 INCHES BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEY WILL NEED ONLY 0.16
INCHES MORE. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE FORMING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO FROM UTUADO TO RINCON AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW
THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM AST. THEN MOIST FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL DRIVE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAKING
SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT. PERSISTENT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT LOWER
LEVELS FRIDAY WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...TO KEEP THE AREAS SOILS SATURATED.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE FAVORABLE TO SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TROUGHING...PRESENT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL ENHANCE OR SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS THEY DO
SO. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL SEE DIMINISHING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AFTER TONIGHT. FOR
MOTHER`S DAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE DISAPPEARS AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCAL CONVECTION IN THE WEST BUT
GENERALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE...AND THE COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A GOODLY AMOUNT OF SUN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MAY CLIMATOLOGY THEREAFTER AS MODELS DEPICT
THE PATTERN OF MODERATE MOISTURE AND TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
TJBQ...TJMZ...TIST AND TJSJ MOST LIKELY TAF LOCATIONS TO HAVE MVFR
OR EVEN BRIEF IFR...MTN OBSC LIKELY TOO. FOR TISX VCTS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT BELOW 10KFT THEN FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST ABV 12KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS DUE TO
ENHANCED TRADE WINDS...BUT SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE
SOILS ARE SATURATED...LAND SLIDES CONTINUE AND RIVER FLOWS ON MANY
BASINS ARE RUNNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ALMOST ALL RAINFALL WILL
RUNOFF SINCE SOILS ARE SUPER-SATURATED WHICH MEANS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH UNTIL DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PARTICULAR ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON
COMMUNITIES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...
ESPECIALLY SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...SINCE THE HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 60 60 40 40
STT 75 84 75 84 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. Mothers day looks like it will be with good weather.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI MAY 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
HAITI APPROACHING PR WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. SHALLOWER CONVECTION CONTINUES NORTH OF PR AND EXTENDS
OVER EASTERN PR TO USVI. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS HIGH VALUE
AXIS NORTH OF PR TO LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD.

GFS SUGGESTS 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF PR AND A NON-PLAYER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER IT ALSO PLACES
SIGNIFICANT 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND 250 MB DIVERGENCE
ON THE NOSE OF A JET CORE MAX OVER PR BY 12Z/SAT. THIS RESULTS IN
0.87 INCH 6-HOUR QPF BULLSEYE JUST NORTH OF CULEBRA/ST.
THOMAS...AND WRF SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THIS BEARS WATCHING IF DEEP CONVECTION COULD BE
MAINTAINED EARLY SAT MORNING. USVI COULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT OVER USVI IF IT OCCURRED. HAVING DOUBTS THAT THIS
WILL BE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN THOUGH.

THIS TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE SWEEP OUT THE 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE TYPICAL
WIND PATTERNS RESULT IN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST/ISX IN PASSING
SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI...TSRA LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER 10/16Z. ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELL TRAINS TO CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...MAINLY DIRECTED WELL NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS.
FOR OUR AREA THEY ARE BROKEN UP A BIT BY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
EXPECTED NO MORE THAN 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 50 30 30 40
STT 85 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 10 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Expect period of showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe always in yellow alert today contrary to the Northern Leewards who have back off the yellow alert.

[BZSTORM]

Hi everyone
took me while to find this page again had computer crash and lost my bookmarks. Anyone have opinion on crown weathers forecast for possible Tropical storm/system affecting West Carib on the screen shot they posted on Facebook this morning for around may 24th? thanks everyone
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

[cycloneye]

Hi everyone
took me while to find this page again had computer crash and lost my bookmarks. Anyone have opinion on crown weathers forecast for possible Tropical storm/system affecting West Carib on the screen shot they posted on Facebook this morning for around may 24th? thanks everyone
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

Welcome back! Yes,is a good possibility and we are discussing about the future TC development in Caribbean on the thread dedicated to that topic at Talking Tropics forum.


viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114936&p=2304940#p2304940

[msbee]

Hi everyone
took me while to find this page again had computer crash and lost my bookmarks. Anyone have opinion on crown weathers forecast for possible Tropical storm/system affecting West Carib on the screen shot they posted on Facebook this morning for around may 24th? thanks everyone
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

welcome back!

[BZSTORM]

Hi everyone
took me while to find this page again had computer crash and lost my bookmarks. Anyone have opinion on crown weathers forecast for possible Tropical storm/system affecting West Carib on the screen shot they posted on Facebook this morning for around may 24th? thanks everyone
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

Welcome back! Yes,is a good possibility and we are discussing about the future TC development in Caribbean on the thread dedicated to that topic at Talking Tropics forum.


viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114936&p=2304940#p2304940

thanks for welcome back (everyone) and the link Luis