MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...274...
   
   VALID 020708Z - 020915Z
   
   ...MATURE MCS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
   MORNING...
   
   WELL-DEFINED BOWING ARC OF CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS
   HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IND AND
   NRN KY OVER THE PAST HOUR. VIL AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS
   CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. HOWEVER... FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
   BOW...UP TO 42KT...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID/UPPER
   LEVEL WIND MAX...MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. RECENT
   GUST OF 38KT WAS OBSERVED AT HNB.
   
   HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK WARM
   SECTOR FROM SERN MO...TO SRN IL...AND WRN KY EARLY TODAY. TRAILING
   PORTION OF THE BOW ECHO OVER IND INTERSECTS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN
   THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
   TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIR MASS NEWD INTO ZONE OF STRONG MESOSCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT. DISCRETE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
   PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVANCING
   EAST ACROSS SERN MO...COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
   
   38648910 36589177 36628595 38778481 38738812

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX...SRN AND ERN OK...NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...275...
   
   VALID 020852Z - 021045Z
   
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS NRN
   TX...SRN AND ERN OK...AND NWRN AR...EARLY TODAY. HAIL CONTINUES TO
   BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
   SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP.
   
   PRIMARILY TWO AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS
   TX/OK/AR ATTM. THE LARGER SYSTEM...ACROSS ERN OK AND THE SRN
   OZARKS...WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LINEAR AS PREVIOUSLY DISCRETE
   CELLS MERGE ALONG A SW-NE AXIS SITUATED ALONG/NORTH OF STALLED
   SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN OK AND WRN AR. INSTABILITY AND LIFT INTO AND
   AHEAD OF THIS WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS FSM
   SHORTLY AND THEN CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN OK AND WRN AR NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.
   
   OTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ATOP
   WEAK/RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
   NWRN TX/SRN OK. STORMS HAVE REMAINED DISCRETE IN THIS AREA WHERE THE
   LOW LEVEL JET WAS DIRECTED INTO THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
   COLD POOL/WEAK FRONT. MESOSCALE FORCING...LAPSE RATES...AND SHEAR
   ALL APPEAR TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   CELL MERGERS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SMALL FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS FROM THIS CONVECTION IN A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   33399523 32479648 32439908 34189904 34809772 35619759
   36579501 36499324 35069371 34279495

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274...
   
   VALID 021043Z - 021145Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST AT 45-50KT COULD POSE ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KY THIS MORNING. A NEW
   WATCH...EAST OF WW 274...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   SQUALL LINE HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED ESEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
   INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL KY. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE COLD POOL IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
   SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WILL MAINTAIN FOCUSED LIFT
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY TODAY. AIR MASS
   BECOMES DECIDEDLY LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT AHEAD OF THE LINE
   AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE GIVEN OBSERVED DECREASE IN VIL
   AND LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST HOUR NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW. STORMS
   NEAR THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOW...FROM MONROE COUNTY...ACROSS
   CUMBERLAND AND ADAIR COUNTIES... ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GREATER
   INSTABILITY AND MASS TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...
   
   38008512 37848469 37638445 37428438 37258444 36878477
   36758504 36698590 36688820 36968806 37478741 38018573

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...275...
   
   VALID 021238Z - 021415Z
   
   A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSIST NEAR THE RED
   RIVER AND OVER SERN OK THIS MORNING. OVERALL...INTENSITY OF MOST OF
   THIS CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
   NONETHELESS...SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND SOME PARTS OF
   WATCH 275 MAY BE EXTENDED BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
   
   VERY PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION
   HAS SUSTAINED REGENERATIVE UPDRAFTS ACROSS WICHITA AND CLAY COUNTIES
   IN NWRN TX OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RESULTING COLD POOL NOW
   APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING SWD/SWWD WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO
   HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS SERN OK
   AHEAD OF WEAK...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT
   APPEARS THAT THE WEAK CIRCULATION WAS ENHANCING ASCENT TO THE NORTH
   OF THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAIL/WIND
   POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST
   TOWARD AR BORDER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   32879617 32469890 34259893 34809756 35029607 35979342
   35119377 34829439 34399503 33419534 33379575

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021826Z - 021930Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO NRN AL AND NRN
   GA.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE TN AND MOST RECENTLY
   ACROSS NWRN GA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN NC SWWD INTO NRN GA AND THEN WNWWD
   THROUGH FAR NERN AL TO WRN MIDDLE TN /60 E MKL/.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   AND LOCALIZED STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WITH APPARENT MCV...
   CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD INTO MIDDLE TN...SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
   STRONGER INSTABILITY RESIDES W OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE INFLOW OF THIS
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  30-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO MOVE ESE ATOP MORE
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THUS...HAIL SHOULD
   BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34078676 34788792 35998811 36198615 35958407 34618335
   33838419

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SRN/SERN OK AND FAR NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021845Z - 022015Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN/SERN OK AND PARTS OF
   FAR NRN TX.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL TO LOCALLY EXCEED SEVERE
   VALUES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OK SSWWD INTO NWRN TX AND THEN ESEWD SOUTH OF
   THE DFW METROPLEX TO ERN TX.  REGIONAL RADARS COMBINED WITH THIS
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OK
   ARE MOST LIKELY ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
   ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN KS/NERN OK AT
   THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   /30-40 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG SRN
   EXTENT OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
   MOIST CONVECTION...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING HAIL AS THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34039780 34579759 35359709 35079556 34159520 33499619
   33739745

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W/NW TX INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK AND
   SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021922Z - 021945Z
   
   ONE OR TWO TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF
   W/NW TX NWD THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK/SWRN KS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/ CONTINUES TO
   RETURN NWD THROUGH NW TX INTO ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK...
   ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATED CU HAS
   DEVELOPED WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  TCU RECENTLY FORMED
   SE OF AMA INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING INHIBITION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   REACH CONVECTIVE VALUES AROUND 90 F.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
   LIKELIHOOD FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.  VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
   DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING
   STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31540156 32960201 34910219 37240155 37199932 36159896
   33469907 31339940

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021923Z - 022130Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST
   IA. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
   SASKATCHEWAN/MT BORDER...WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK RACING FROM
   WY/SOUTHERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
   IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
   NEB....WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD NEAR
   HURON/MITCHELL...AND EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN SD INTO
   NORTHWEST IA.
   
   AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION...DEEP CONVECTION
   APPEARS LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NEAR THE
   SURFACE LOW/PREFRONTAL TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   MODEST...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED INTO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED CAPES AS HIGH
   AS 1500 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. BUILDING BOUNDARY LAYER CU
   IS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB NEAR YANKTON SD TO WEST OF NORFOLK NEB.
   
   NELIGH NEB/WOOD LAKE MN PROFILERS ARE INDICATIVE OF 35-40 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE ANTICIPATED VIA
   APPROACHING JET STREAK. GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL
   SHEAR...DISCREET SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH COLD FRONTAL
   FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LINEAR EVOLUTION EARLY THIS EVENING.
   PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE
   TORNADO THREAT GENERALLY APPEARS LOW...TENDENCY FOR BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW IN VICINITY OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT MAY YIELD SOME ENHANCED
   THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
   
   45399795 45699696 45019555 42819534 40579689 40529844
   41359852 42719823 45099825

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022017Z - 022215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
   APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING...A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/S. SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE
   WITHIN A RATHER WARM/MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEGLIGIBLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/LOW LFCS. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY
   UNSTABLE AMBIENT AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000
   J/KG...RELATIVELY GREATEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR -- ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA -- WILL
   TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN EPISODIC SEVERE THREAT
   INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31129823 30869751 30899516 31489363 31339237 30349252
   29919533 29539700 29399804 29819884 30219912 30919890

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL/FAR
   NORTHWEST GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022130Z - 022300Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH
   OF TN INTO FAR NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST GA.
   ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER/DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. ALONG AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC
   COLD FRONT AND NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AMPLE INSOLATION
   HAS ALLOWED THE RECOVERING WARM SECTOR TO BECOME MARGINALLY TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL INTO MIDDLE TN. CU
   FIELD HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE RECENTLY INVOF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
   THE TN/KY BORDER SOUTH OF PADUCAH KY...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   DEVELOPMENT IN EXTREME NORTHERN AL INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/S.
   HOWEVER...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND QUESTIONS REGARDING THE AREAL
   EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT /PER DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MODEST
   MASS CONVERGENCE/ SUGGESTS NECESSITY FOR A WATCH MAY REMAIN LOW.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   36388930 36758783 36158509 35598456 34268489 34548881
   34968943 35818951

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...NWRN TX AND EXTREME WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276...
   
   VALID 022226Z - 030000Z
   
   NUMEROUS TSTMS INITIATED ALONG THE CAPROCK/DRYLINE THIS AFTN...WITH
   SUPPORT FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  THE STORMS HAVE QUICKLY ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS
   GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
   EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS.  THE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY MOVED
   OFF THE DRYLINE AND ARE THRIVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   60-64 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  LATEST
   OBJECTIVE/SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ZONE OF ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH FROM
   NWRN TX INTO AREAS JUST NW OF KCDS AND THEN SEWD ALONG THE RED
   RIVER. THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
   EXIST FROM THE KCDS-KABI REGION EWD TOWARD ALTUS AND WICHITA FALLS.
   OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TSTMS.
   
   GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
   THE CURRENT WATCH...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM
   INTO PRIMARILY WRN OK AND NWRN TX.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31790080 36440155 36409936 36399858 35189793 32519915
   31679921

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...
   
   VALID 022246Z - 030015Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
   EASTERN SD/NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THIS TIME ALONG THE MISSOURI
   RIVER NEAR SIOUX CITY IA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY...CU
   CONTINUES TO TOWER WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST
   CENTRAL NEB...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG IMMEDIATE
   UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO NORTHEAST NEB. INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
   MAIN HAZARDS WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY TORNADO
   POTENTIAL ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 277 SEEMINGLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN IN VICINITY OF SUBTLE WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW
   LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED -- 250 M2/S2 OR GREATER 0-1 KM
   SRH PER SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D WVP -- IN PRESENCE OF MIDDLE 50S
   DEWPOINTS/MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   44829806 44989627 44559547 42789504 41989599 41949696
   42119743 42999745 43809785

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PNHDL...SWRN OK AND NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022330Z - 030100Z
   
   THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE SERN TX
   PNHDL SEWD INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THROUGH MID-EVENING ALONG WITH
   THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.
   
   SUPERCELL TSTMS OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE
   SEGMENT FROM NEAR KCDS SWD INTO KING/DICKENS COUNTIES OF NWRN TX AT
   2330Z. OTHER STORMS FARTHER N ACROSS WCNTRL OK ALSO APPEAR TO BE
   DEVELOPING MORE LINEARLY WITH TIME.
   
   THE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO FORWARD
   PROPAGATE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG/S OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   EVIDENT FROM SWRN OK SEWD INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX.
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A DCAPE MAX OF AROUND 1300 J/KG
   AHEAD OF THE STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
   INFLOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KTS.  AS A RESULT...A
   TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A BOW ECHO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE
   OCCURRING...THOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY
   WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER S...PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL NEAR/SW OF KSWW WILL
   LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY COLD OUTFLOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE
   SWRN FLANK OF THE STORM.  THIS MAY TEND TO UNDERCUT THE CELL AND/OR
   ENHANCE UPDRAFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY INTERRUPT
   MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW. WHATEVER THE CASE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE IN AREAS W/SW OF KABI TO NEAR KSJT WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   36980059 36099844 33779696 32769734 31619934 31580114
   35410102

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN
   KS/SOUTHWEST IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030018Z - 030215Z
   
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN KS/SOUTHWEST IA. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHERN KS...A RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE
   NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF RICHER THETA-E AIR IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
   ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF PSEUDO WARM FRONT VIA AN INCREASING
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE PREFRONTAL
   TROUGH ACROSS NEB...AND INTERCEPTS THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH...AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO
   NORTHERN KS/SOUTHWEST IA. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND ANY
   POTENTIAL HINDRANCES EXTENSIVE AREA OF STORMS ACROSS OK/FAR SOUTHERN
   KS MAY POSE. PROVIDED A SCENARIO OF INCREASING COVERAGE/SEVERITY
   TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL. WILL
   MONITOR FOR A WATCH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   41549706 41459567 41099538 39289624 39259829 39519883
   40709845

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030042Z - 030215Z
   
   TSTMS OVER WRN OK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AFTER 02Z.
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS
   SCNTRL OK.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY S OF THE OKC METRO AREA.
   
   00Z NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 200 J/KG INHIBITION OWING TO A
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER/SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF AFTN ELEVATED
   STORMS.  SFC/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW THAT HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS/LWR
   CINH EXIST ALONG THE RED RIVER ALONG/S OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   PRIND THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR THIS REGION WITH THE
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   FARTHER N...IT IS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OWING TO
   INCREASING CINH.  BUT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS
   SOMEWHAT...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IS NON-ZERO.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   36969622 34979576 34039636 34179761 36909797

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHEAST NEB INTO
   NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...
   
   VALID 030056Z - 030230Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 277 APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   SIMILAR TO EARLIER KINGSBURY COUNTY SD TORNADO REPORT...PRIMARY
   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FROM THE SD/MN BORDER
   INTO SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH MID EVENING. WOOD RIVER PROFILER/ADJUSTED
   SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP CONTINUES TO DEPICT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 OR GREATER. LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS REMAINS ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- 1000 J/KG MLCAPE -- ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH UPPER COLD POCKET.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO NEB/FAR WESTERN IA...STORMS HAVE
   RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
   CENTRAL NEB OVER THE PAST HOUR AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH 00Z OMAHA OBSERVED RAOB ONLY CAPTURED
   MODEST INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E TRANSPORT WILL
   LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   STORMS INCREASING/ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS WILL REMAIN
   HIGHER BASED ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA...WITH A PRIMARY
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   45229658 44329482 43499449 42059447 41679593 41659680
   42139704 43269648

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0847 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030147Z - 030245Z
   
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY THRIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SWRN TX WITH
   THREAT FOR ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   THERE WILL BE A ZONE WHERE AT LEAST THREE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
   COLLIDE OVER AREAS VCNTY KDRT AND WEST OF KECU THROUGH LATE EVENING.
    LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
   UPDRAFTS AND SUSTAIN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS. 
   
   00Z DEL RIO SOUNDING SHOWED NO INHIBITION...AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
   AND AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY
   BE ENHANCED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS...SUFFICIENT FOR
   OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.
   
   PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 04-05Z WILL BE IN
   SUTTON...VAL VERDE...WRN EDWARDS...KINNEY...ULVADE...ZAVALA AND
   DIMMIT AND MAVERICK COUNTIES.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   29760140 30580050 30359944 28459923 28240016

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030224Z - 030400Z
   
   BOW ECHO OVER SRN OK WAS MOVING 270/50 AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO THE
   I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PAULS VALLEY AND ARDMORE AT 03Z AND INTO THE
   ATOKA REGION BY 04-0430Z.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INHIBITION
   INCREASES DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN OK AND MAY RESULT IN THE BOW ECHO
   WEAKENING ONCE IT MOVES BEYOND THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  BUT...FARTHER
   S...OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST S OF THE RED RIVER IN WRN N
   TX.  OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AFTN CONVECTION STALLED ACROSS NCNTRL
   TX EARLY IN THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MORE MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE WITH LESS INHIBITION. THUS...THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO BOW
   AND EVENTUALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ACROSS NCNTRL TX DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
   
   33469805 35279800 35279648 33589588 33369648

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030241Z - 030415Z
   
   THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   A THUNDERSTORM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED NEAR EMPORIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   LIKELY ROOTED IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A
   NWD-TRANSPORTING LLJ. RUC FORECASTS ADVECT THIS ZONE N/NE TOWARDS
   THE MO RIVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG.
   COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS...ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38449632 39089705 39999681 40689637 41049578 40829415
   39779407 38969461 38409562

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...NCNTRL TX AND EXTREME SCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...280...
   
   VALID 030332Z - 030500Z
   
   A FAIRLY COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 279 AND 280...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE NOT CAPTURING THE SITUATION VERY WELL.
   
   TWO SQUALL LINES HAVE MATURED...ONE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
   SCNTRL OK AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR KSEP SWWD TO NEAR KDRT.  LATEST
   SFC/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES PLACE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST S OF
   THE RED RIVER IN NCNTRL TX.  WEAKER INHIBITION AND PRESENCE OF NEAR
   80 DEG F SFC TEMPERATURES AND 65-67 DEG F DEW POINTS RESIDE IN AN
   AXIS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN TX.  TSTMS
   DEVELOPING NW OF FORT WORTH COULD THRIVE AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS
   OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE ESEWD INTO NERN-NCNTRL TX.  THE 00Z H5
   ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FLOW DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY EAST OF I-35.
   THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL TEND TO SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND
   BACKBUILD WWD WITH THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL...ALONG WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   FARTHER S...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN STORMS...BUT
   PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW WILL PROBABLY SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD WACO...LAMPASAS AND AREAS
   NW OF KSAT.  EARLIER SWWD PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTER THAT MOVED
   THROUGH SCNTRL TX PRODUCED A CIRCULAR OUTFLOW THAT MOVED NWWD
   THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY.  THIS OUTFLOW CAUSED A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT
   OF THE SRN END OF THE LINEAR MCS SOUTH OF MCCULLOCH COUNTY TX. THIS
   PORTION OF THE LINE WILL MOVE ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   PROBABLY LESSEN THE SEVERE THREAT.  THAT PORTION OF THE LINE FROM
   MCCULLOCH COUNTY NWD WILL HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL OWING TO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   30609991 32209892 33539838 34039745 34559702 33939596
   30829836