Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Wasn't the forecast saying the Tropical Wave was just emerging the African Coast yesterday morning?And they're now saying it is at 40W?That cannot be the same Wave.
I took a look at the satellite and I saw almost nothing around 40W,so what's going on there?

Well,that weak wave is now around 41W unless they introduce a new wave behind.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is the word that will be prevalent in the coming days in the NE Caribbean islands. And it looks like it may be even more for next week so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 22 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the southern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Wow! If this pans out like GFS model is forecasting,most of the Caribbean and Central America will have a deluge of rain for the last days of May.

[JonathanBelles]

Are there any working radars in the western Caribbean? I know that the Cayman Islands have a radar, but I could not find it. Without satellite and without Jamaican radar, it's a bit more difficult to watch the waves down there.

[cycloneye]

Are there any working radars in the western Caribbean? I know that the Cayman Islands have a radar, but I could not find it. Without satellite and without Jamaican radar, it's a bit more difficult to watch the waves down there.

Well,finnally after a few weeks out the San Juan radar is running again. Hopefully,those radars that you metion go to operation soon as it will be important to see what is going on in those areas.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 77 85 / 30 40 30 50
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50

[Macrocane]

Weather is becoming more active in Central America as our rainy season starts:

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 22/00UTC: SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION AND ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA/HISPANIOLA.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT RAPIDLY WHILE A BROADER TROUGH
REORGANIZES TO THE NORTHWEST. EXITING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS INTO HAITI/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY 24 HRS...AND TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY 48 HRS. ON DAY 01...EXPECTING HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. EXPECTING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HISPANIOLA IN INTERACTION WITH EASTERLY WAVE
AND DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER JAMAICA...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECTING A SHARP DECREASE
WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35.

DEEP POOL OF PWAT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINING ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES INTO PUERTO RICO.
THESE ARE INTERACTING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. OVER PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE TODAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. A SURGE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON DAY 03 ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN
PWAT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS DISAGREE IN AMOUNTS WITH
THIS NEW SURGE IN CONVECTION. SO FAR EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVE PATTERN OF CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TOWARDS
LATE CYCLE.

ACROSS MEXICO...MID-UPPER RIDGE IS TO MEANDER OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. STILL...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EJE VOLCANICO AND ESPECIALLY
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FINALLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE.
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING SUFFICIENTLY
LARGE TO SUSTAIN MODERATE TO A FEW STRONG DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL REMAIN WEAK. EXPECTING HEAVIEST
ACROSS GUATEMALA TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER NORTHERN EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON DAYS
02-03 EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.

ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP AND LARGE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN/EASTERN PACIFIC AND AN ITCZ TO THE NORTH OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THIS WILL SUSTAIN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THE CYCLE.
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH
60 HRS AND A SLIGHT DECREASE ON DAY 02. AS BEST MOISTURE POOL
MOVES WESTWARD...EXPECTING AN INCREASE OVER COSTA RICA/PACIFIC
COAST OF NICARAGUA/GULF OF FONSECA TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
POOL. AMOUNTS WILL START DECREASING TOWARDS MID/LATE CYCLE AS
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST THROUGH 36 HRS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A DECREASING TREND AFTERWARDS.

FURTHER EAST...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH A TRANSIENT QUIET PATTERN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA INTO THE NORTHERN GUIANAS. DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE IT WESTWARD LEADING TO A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
OVER VENEZUELA THROUGH THE CYCLE. AN ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE OVER THE
GUIANAS BY LATE CYCLE. EXPECTING AMOUNTS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
40W 43W 46W 49W 52W 55W 58W TW
74W 76W 79W 82W 85W 87W 89W EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA LATE ON DAY
02...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 74W IS TO INTERACT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY ONCE IT GETS OVER COSTA RICA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN NICARAGUA. WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH REGION OF
ENHANCED TRADE WIND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS JAMAICA AS WELL.

BLENMAN...BMS (BARBADOS)
MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.

MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 23 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning & Afternoon:  Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of all parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with occsional showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL FCSTS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS RUN BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVR
THE AREA EARLY FRI AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE-RIDGE ALOFT FRI WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.

LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
NMRS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WITH
GENERAL TROF PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS
ALWAYS...TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS IS QUITE CHALLENGING
BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS FOR SIG HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WORSEN MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION AND MOISTURE DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z. THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK.
WINDS WILL BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TOMORROW AS
WINDS WEAKEN BIT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 40 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 85 / 40 60 70 70

[HurricaneFan]

It looks like the forecast has stopped talking about the Tropical Wave.Is it still going to play a role in the weekend and early week weather?

[cycloneye]

It looks like the forecast has stopped talking about the Tropical Wave.Is it still going to play a role in the weekend and early week weather?

The wave will move south of the NE Caribbean islands but it will interact with the trough that will be in the vicinity and with the upper dynamics very favorable,it looks like the very wet last days of may scenario will occur.

[cycloneye]

Here is an update by the San Juan NWS and no changes were made to the very wet forecast for PR/VI and the rest of the NE Caribbean islands. But most of the Caribbean and Central America will be on this wet pattern for a while.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 24/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days for PR and adjacent islands in the coming days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST AT UPPER LEVELS WHILE A STRONGER
LONG WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE U.S.
MAINLAND AND WILL PUSH RIPPLES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY IN MOSTLY WESTERLY...CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINS VERY MOIST EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 42 WEST WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
SAINT CROIX AND SAINT JOHN WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE PUERTO RICO MAINLAND. SMALL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALL NIGHT. THE MOISTENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED
AND RIVERS RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE BASE FLOW...EXPECT THAT THERE
COULD BE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONCE THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES IN PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AROUND 6 AM AST THIS MORNING AND ALLOW IT
TO EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL FROM 24/00Z SHOWS
TODAY AS HAVING THE BEST AND MOST CONTINUOUS MOISTURE COLUMN OF
ANY DAY UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. THIS DEEP SUPPORT WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DID SHOW
SOME WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THE WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER MID WEEK. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS HOWEVER SHOULD NOT SEE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE EXTENDED HIGH HUMIDITY
BEHIND IT SUGGEST THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/12Z. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN SHOWERS. AFTER 24/16Z
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COME DOWN AT 6 AM AST FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 60 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 24 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning :  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
OFF THE U.S EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. TROUGH PATTERN WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE IT SEEMS
LIKE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BUILD LATE TODAY INTO ERN PR AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND. HOWEVER...THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW
AS A AREA BECOMES UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRETTY AGRESSIVE ON TOMORROW
BEING PRETTY ACTIVE AND MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SO I GOT PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TOMORROW WE`LL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THINGS APPEAR TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT MANY STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE SWOLLEN OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

&&

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY SAT WITH FREQ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH
COAST PR AND USVI TERMINALS. THE LEEWARD TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
SAINT MAARTEN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FEET SOON AND SCA WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

PR and most of the Eastern Caribbean islands will have a very wet period starting tonight and lasting for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

The wet scenario for PR and adjacent islands will start in the overnight hours and last for a few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX AND
NORTHWEST COAST OF PR. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 25/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING OVERNIGHT...REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND
BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet day is expected in PR and adjacent islands as a trough moves nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70