Florida Weather

[arekkusu]

Hi, this is my first time on this website.

I'm a lifelong FL resident, and I commute between my home in northeast Clay County to Alachua County for school at UF three times a week. The drive is about 1.25 hours (not including the 20+ minutes I spend every day trying to find parking, but that's another story), and it is actually not that bad since it is mostly highway driving, but today, I got absolutely destroyed by the weather. I was wondering when the strong storms would come back, and of course, on the first day of "meteorological spring", they're here. NWS Jax issued at least five severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning this afternoon on a MARGINAL risk day!

As someone who has always had a thing for meteorology and severe weather, I'm excited to see some eventful weather for the first time in a while, but at the same time, I'm dreading the afternoon commute back home. At least it's break now.

[chaser1]

Hi, this is my first time on this website.

I'm a lifelong FL resident, and I commute between my home in northeast Clay County to Alachua County for school at UF three times a week. The drive is about 1.25 hours (not including the 20+ minutes I spend every day trying to find parking, but that's another story), and it is actually not that bad since it is mostly highway driving, but today, I got absolutely destroyed by the weather. I was wondering when the strong storms would come back, and of course, on the first day of "meteorological spring", they're here. NWS Jax issued at least five severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning this afternoon on a MARGINAL risk day!

As someone who has always had a thing for meteorology and severe weather, I'm excited to see some eventful weather for the first time in a while, but at the same time, I'm dreading the afternoon commute back home. At least it's break now.

Welcome to the Forum! Don't be shy about lending your .02 cents worth. It's always nice to have a range of perspectives and extra sets of eyes regarding the weather. As weather forums go, I'd say this one seems to offer the broadest range of topics, regional related threads, minimal but reasonable moderation, and depth of knowledge from a wide range of weather enthusiasts, hobbyists, and professionals. In fact, the biggest drawback as I see it is that the majority of back-round (read only) guests and a large number of present members seldom chime in to further enhance the dialogue for all.

Beyond all that LOL, I share your enthusiasm for wild and insane weather! Like yourself, I've grown up here in Florida (though at the Southern end of the State). Growing up, nothing would excite me more then watching the Summer afternoon cumulonimbus build to the west over the Everglades, and just sit there watching the darkening sky, approaching lightning, and increasing percussion of thunder that somehow made everyone alike often stop, take pause, and notice as well. You never quite knew what to expect. Sometimes, nothing more then an over-reaching anvil somehow "stuck in place" but displaying the coolest lightning display. Other times, the full-on thunderstorm would move right on over but just end up underwhelming compared to the radar's or view from the street appearance. Yet others would full out flood the street and take out the electricity all within a crazy 2 hour performance by Mother Nature.

Watching the weather in South Florida seemed to become somewhat predictable. Jeez, I hated watching those advancing squall lines just knowing that JUST as they were going to approach my area, that somehow that line would begin to break and become cellular.... just to watch those cells re-intensify as they approached or moved off the coast ugh! Moving to the Orlando area, I started to really understand my sister's constant description of how the local thunderstorms here, were somehow that much more violent. To be honest, I never really heard the expression "lightning storms" until moving to Central Florida. They're still a total enigma to me too , but damn are they wild. For the most part, i've often found that the wildest weather i've experienced here in Florida, were those instances where it were somewhat "under-forecasted" or largely unexpected (like the intense cell that just formed overhead last night!). More often then not, it just seems that most forecast severe weather events and Warnings seldom quite live up to expectation. Reasonably though, that's just part of the interplay between the weather itself and balancing the public need to be aware of potential threats.

[northjaxpro]

I want to also join in to welcome you to the Storm2K forum Arekkusu!

It is always great seeing new people coming on this forum, especially someone who is right here in my area of Northeast Florida. First, I want to wish you the very best on your time down at the University of Florida and great rewards with your future after completing your studies!

You are joining the forum at just the right time. We will be into the true Spring to Summer rainy/storm season soon as we get to May, and of course, the start of the 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1. So, hopefully, you can join in with us here on the thread, especially when the weather does get more active.

Please feel free to chime in on this forum, especially here in the Florida Weather Thread. It is always great seeing fresh, new perspectives and thoughts from new members!

[arekkusu]

northjaxpro and chaser1,

Thank you for the warm welcome to these forums! I'm glad to be here and I look forward to participating more. Also glad to see that NE FL has good representation on here. I think that the SPC risk categories can be a bit confusing; for example, even a "slight risk" day usually has nonstop severe weather for several hours, at least in my experience. And northjaxpro, thank you for your kind words about my studies; it isn't always easy and sometimes I feel really overwhelmed with work.

This is crazy; for the third day in a row, strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast for my area. I think the last time that happened was in very early December. Back then, a confirmed EF3 tornado hit Kings Bay Base in southeastern GA on what I think was on a marginal risk day, but I'm not entirely sure. Yesterday, we had another round of severe thunderstorms, most of them in Alachua and Putnam counties (I feel bad for any stragglers who waited to go home for spring break) with some rather large hail. One of the storms that hit rural Putnam County started showing rotation out of nowhere and ended up being tornado warned. The majority of NWS Jax's coverage area is under slight risk today,(worse than yesterday and on Friday, which were only marginal risk days) and a squall line is expected to move through later this afternoon. Jax itself and the surrounding areas (including where I live) are only under marginal risk. In a strange way, I'm somewhat excited.

[northjaxpro]

northjaxpro and chaser1,

Thank you for the warm welcome to these forums! I'm glad to be here and I look forward to participating more. Also glad to see that NE FL has good representation on here. I think that the SPC risk categories can be a bit confusing; for example, even a "slight risk" day usually has nonstop severe weather for several hours, at least in my experience. And northjaxpro, thank you for your kind words about my studies; it isn't always easy and sometimes I feel really overwhelmed with work.

This is crazy; for the third day in a row, strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast for my area. I think the last time that happened was in very early December. Back then, a confirmed EF3 tornado hit Kings Bay Base in southeastern GA on what I think was on a marginal risk day, but I'm not entirely sure. Yesterday, we had another round of severe thunderstorms, most of them in Alachua and Putnam counties (I feel bad for any stragglers who waited to go home for spring break) with some rather large hail. One of the storms that hit rural Putnam County started showing rotation out of nowhere and ended up being tornado warned. The majority of NWS Jax's coverage area is under slight risk today,(worse than yesterday and on Friday, which were only marginal risk days) and a squall line is expected to move through later this afternoon. Jax itself and the surrounding areas (including where I live) are only under marginal risk. In a strange way, I'm somewhat excited.

Hi again Arekkuso! Yeah, the immediate concern is an upper level disturbance, which will be moving out of the Northeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. We had dense fog most of the morning, but niw we are getting good heating with abundant sun. This is adding fuel to the fire, with ample instability in the atmosphereThe thinking is for now is that possible strong to isolated severe storms could develop late this afternoon across the Big Bend and Suwanee River Valley regions.. The storms are expected to move northeast up into South and Southeast Georgia. by early this evening. I will be monitoring this closely.

BTW, you are correct Arekkuso regarding that the SPC indeed had our region under a marginal risk for tornadoes and severe weather that day in early December. I remember that EF3 tornado striking Kings Bay Naval Base on Dec. 2, if my memory serves me right. I was working that day overtime tracking the severe weather in the area. It was truly remarkable and a blessing that no fatalities occured in that event, though there was sufficient damage reported on the base, cars were tossed into the water by the twister, and a few people were injured.

[chaser1]

OMG, 14 people dead in parts of Alabama from several F-3 (or higher) confirmed tornadoes . The squall like is fast approaching the Tallahassee area but hopefully the loss of heating will temper any additional dangerous conditions.

[Shell Mound]

The tornado that affected Leon County, FL, on 3 Mar 2019 produced EF3 damage, according to NWS Damage Assessment Toolkits, making it an unusually strong tornado by FL standards. Based on available imagery, the tornado nearly levelled a large home with limestone outer walls near the intersection of Steeds Run and Baum Road, ESE of Black Creek, Leon County. The damage appears to be very impressive. The NWS in Tallahassee estimated damage-derived peak winds of up to 140 mph.

[northjaxpro]

EF3 tornadoes or higher are indeed not common across this region, which really made yesterday's deadly tornado outbreak even more so impressive. Most tornadoes which occur and touch down in this area are generalky smaller-scaled , and rarely surveyed higher than EF2 in most instances.

Actually, this was the second EF3 tornado to impact North Florida and Southeast Georgia within just over three months. The Kings Bay, GA tornado on December 2, 2018, which was discussed in earlier posts above by Arrekkuso and me, was also an EF3.

So, yes, seeing large tornadoes of this magnitude is extremely impressive and rare ndeed for this area.

[psyclone]

Florida has a pretty distinct season for strong/mid latitude forced severe weather and tornadoes...especially over north florida in February and March. Southwest Gerorgia is practically its own tornado alley...I don't think this is so much unusual as it is the end of a long streak of good luck

[northjaxpro]

Perhaps Psyclone, and sure, we indeed have a Spring severe storm season during early Spring period as you indicated. However, it is still quite rare to see such, extreme, large tornadoes of this magnitude around this region that happened yesterday. These tornadoes were comparable to the ones you find in the heart of Tornado Alley in the U.S. Plains. The dynamics were really extremely impressive yesterday producing EF3 tornadoes across North Florida and Southwest GA and an EF4 up in Beauragard, AL.. Really impressive and just catastrophic damage in those areas.

I hope and pray this does not signal more of these type of events as this season progresses. But, with this El Nino in progress, this may be only a harbinger of more to come. God forbid!

[psyclone]

When we had the weak tornadoes around here in early November I wondered if were going to have an active cold weather severe season. we really lucked out despite a wet winter until this episode. Same goes for the super nino a few years back ( I feared a 98 repeat). But we've seen strong tornadoes even in April down to central Florida in the past so it does happen on occasion. The problem with strong tornadoes in Florida is that there's often people (sometimes in very high densities) in the way..so while our frequency may be less..we are a target rich environment when I high end event happens.

[northjaxpro]

Oh no doubt Psyclone. I will also add that this particular tornado outbreak really makes
me wonder if yesterday could be a sign of what potentially could come in terms of the frequency potential of seeing more of these type of dangerous tornadoes in Florida's highly populated, dense regions.

[northjaxpro]

Latest guidance projection has the NWS Jax office getting down to 33 degrees tomorrow morning. A good cold advection regime currently with 1038 mb modified Polar High building in from the Central Plains currently. Northwest wind will bring an advection light freeze to most interior, colder locales across the North Florida area. We may see lighter wind and possible frost and freeze interior areas on Thursday morning. A nice and quick 2-day cool snap on tap for the region.

[arekkusu]

Well, the storms on Sunday/Monday were a lot worse than I expected, especially in GA and AL. I have friends who go to FSU, and they said that everyone was freaking out when that confirmed tornado passed through.

I (as well as many other people who live in NE FL) was lucky enough to not experience any adverse weather myself. There were, however, many severe thunderstorms on the other side of the FL/GA border, specifically in the more central parts of southeast GA, and I think at least one tornado-warned storm actually produced a tornado around Douglas, GA.

However, I think that our luck has run out. This is why:



Yeah. Whenever I see something like this in the SPC's convective outlooks, it usually means nothing good.

It looks like the problems will be mostly north of Jax and Gainesville, but keep in mind that a Day 4 outlook with a 15% probability of severe weather (just like this one) corresponding to the outbreak that took place a few days ago didn't even include the majority of Georgia, including parts that were later assigned enhanced risk status.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Arekkuso, that is something that I am watching closely for coming up on Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

Just missed a freeze earlier this morning here at my home. It measured 33.4 degrees as the morning low. The wind created just enough mixing at the surface to prevent the mercury from getting at or below the freeze mark this morning in most interior locales of North and Northeast Florida.


I think tomorrow morning will probably achieve the freeze mark here as the wind becomes light and the Polar High Pressure axis gets closer to the area. This should promote better radiational cooling conditons and frost formation as well.

[psyclone]

What a crisp and exceptional day underway across the area. 59 with a 25 degree dewpoint at 1 pm in Tampa. Enjoy it since it will be gone soon

[arekkusu]

I feel bad for people in the Panhandle and Big Bend -- they could very well be experiencing another severe weather outbreak less than a week after the last one.

My friends at FSU don't get out for spring break until the 18th. I'm wondering how it's going at the university right now and I should probably check in on them.

[AdamFirst]

It didn't rise very far above 60 here today, and with a gusty breeze made it quite a refreshing, if brisk, day. Love the reprieve from the relentless heat.

[psyclone]

Classic low dewpoint/cold start/ rebound day here. Too bad we couldn't get a stretch of weather like this. Brooksville scores the gold for temp swings as is usual with a low of 30 and a high of 74... an insane 44 degree jump.