Florida Weather

[HurricaneBelle]

Boy the models really whiffed on this event. Not that we didn't get rain, but none of it developed it as forecast. First yesterday we get a line of showers/storms in the early evening which wasn't forecast, and then the squall line (with possible severe weather!) which we were supposed to wake up to this morning bearing down on the Tampa Bay area from the Gulf and which was supposed to come through during mid-morning is nowhere to be found.

Instead there's a large area of rain to the south, and the closest thing to a squall line is headed to the Keys.

[Patrick99]

Big line of storms over the SE Gulf just offshore. My bet is this falls apart almost completely before reaching the Miami/FL/WPB metro area, as often seems to happen. Though maybe we'll get enough daytime heating to help the line re-fire as it moves to the east.

[arekkusu]

The First Coast area was hit with several strong to severe storms last night. The few severe storms took place in the northernmost part of the state (Duval and Nassau) and in southeastern Georgia, while the other surrounding counties (St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler, and Clay) had to put up with conditions approaching severe, such as 45+ mph gusts, frequent lightning, and small hail.

Jacksonville AFD from early this morning is quoted as saying, "widely scattered severe storms expected today". I honestly am not convinced that this will turn out that poorly.

Edited to add: right as I posted this, they released a new AFD saying that what the models predicted yesterday appears to be an overestimation, and they expect "isolated strong to severe storms" for today.

[TheStormExpert]

They a lot of times overhype these springtime squall-lines. Today probably will be a good instance of that with the excessive cloud cover thanks to the Subtropical Jet.

[psyclone]

Wow at the temp forecasts over the next couple of weeks. We're getting May X2 this year. These above normal temps are going to just bridge us right into Summer. And the shelf waters are warming rapidly so coastal areas won't be cooling off as much. Warm water correlates with an earlier start to the rainy season so we're probably in the hunt for that.

[arekkusu]

Nothing really happened today in my part of Florida or anywhere in southeast Georgia. We got a little bit of rain and isolated somewhat strong thunderstorms, but that was it. We had far more severe weather with that surprise event on the 6th and yesterday afternoon than we did today.

[boca]

Did anyone notice that the NAO is negative and that really means nothing since it’s April now.

[TheStormExpert]

Did anyone notice that the NAO is negative and that really means nothing since it’s April now.

Of course when it doesn’t matter anymore!

[psyclone]

If that's what's responsible for tilting our extended outlooks closer to normal (rather than sky high above normal) I'll take it!

[arekkusu]

Our people in the panhandle might be getting slammed this weekend thanks to a strong mid-level disturbance originating from the southwest. Apparently, it can't be conclusively determined just yet how / if the threat may extend to other parts of Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah the NAO finally went negative and will stay that way through up until the end of the month. The latest EURO and GFS runs in their extended 10 day outlooks are indicating deep troughing in response over the Eastern CONUS, beginning late next week.

This could spell potential severe weather across portions of the Gulf Coast, and Southeast U.S. within the next 7 to 10 days. We will have to monitor that beginning next week. Also, temps will be near average or possibly even a bit below climo by the next 7-10 days, especially by next weekend April 19-20, as northwesterly continental flow would spill down over the. Eastern U.S.. Both EURO and GFS really deepen the upper trough down across the for that time period. I would gladly take any brief reprieve from the heat and humidity while we can get it from Mother Nature.

[arekkusu]

Yeah, it looks like we might see some severe weather late next week. Most of the state was placed (and the east coast up to the Carolinas, I believe) under a 15% risk of severe t-storms on next Friday. A somewhat broad 15% risk issued almost a week in advance makes me think at least some of it will be upgraded.

[psyclone]

Looks like an unseasonably active weather pattern is on tap for late April with fronts/mid latitude forced convection/svr potential. The severe wx outbreak today across the south will drag a cold front through on sunday night with a nice cooldown and much lower dews Monday followed by a rebound but then another front with severe possibilities extending much farther south than climo usually permits this late...hopefully followed by some more refreshing air. All of this makes for more interesting weather watching than is typical this late in the spring season for Florida.

[Taffy]

I am ecstatic! It is finally raining in Lehigh Acres, Lee County.

[psyclone]

Lightning data shows the squall line in the Gulf is pretty robust down to about central Florida's latitude. Very much worth watching as it draws closer today. Beyond that a dose of refreshing air is on the way so we really have something to look forward to.

[arekkusu]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-124-125-133-138-GAZ166-364-142115-
Coastal Flagler FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Duval FL-Putnam FL-
Inland Flagler FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Clay FL-
Coastal Duval FL-Inland St. Johns FL-Western Charlton GA-
Coastal Camden GA-
415 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER...NASSAU...
ST. JOHNS...CENTRAL PUTNAM...CLAY...DUVAL...SOUTH CENTRAL CAMDEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

* Showers were starting to developing across the Jacksonville Metro
area, extending southward along the St. Johns River basin. This
activity will intensity into isolated thunderstorms as it
approaches the Atlantic coast. Lightning and gusty winds are
expected.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, St. Marys, Saint Augustine, Fernandina Beach,
Palatka, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Hilliard, Callahan and
Pomona Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 8132 2962 8152 2951 8152 2939 8173
3024 8205 3065 8204 3076 8174 3073 8157
3076 8158 3071 8154 3076 8154 3067 8141
3025 8135 2971 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 215DEG 24KT 3017 8175 2935 8160

$$

ENYEDI

--------------------------------------------------------

NWS Jax is so excited about these storms along the first coast that they made several grammatical errors when writing this Special Weather Statement!

All jokes aside, things recently started picking up out here in the northeast part of the state, but it seems as if most of the storms are on their way offshore. One storm in St. Johns County recently reached severe limits and is now working its way into the Atlantic. Although my location is a part of the (soon-expired) advisory, we are bone dry at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

We will need to really watch for a better potential in my opinion of severe weather next weekend across the Southeast U.S. and across the Gulf Coast and into portions of the Florida peninsula as we get into Easter weekend

As I pointed out days ago, an extremely deep upper level trough for this time of the year will evolve and pivot through the region beginning this Good Friday. 18Z GFS keeps the consistent trend going of showing the potential of a big squall line pushing through the Northern FL peninsula and the Southeast U.S. region thiis Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

The dynamics definitely look more impressive based on the latest 18Z GFS run late today for our region for this next system.

By the way, it reached 89.4 degrees at my locale for the max temp today. We nearly had our first 90 degree day of the season. I am in no hurry to see that quite yet. We will see a gazillion of those this summer.

[arekkusu]

A significant portion of the large 15% risk area for Thursday has already been upgraded to 30% risk. I'm thinking the same will happen for the Friday outlook, but I'm wondering if we will be a part of it.

Also, yes, it sure does feel like summer already some days. Gainesville tied a record high of 91 degrees today. Luckily, I wasn't there.

[psyclone]

Wow is it nice out with a fresh breeze, temps in the 70's and dewpoints in the 50's here in central florida. Not many days left where we can open up the house and enjoy the fresh air so enjoy it

[northjaxpro]

A beautiful spring morning across Northeast Florida, with clear skies and cool temps. It bottomed out at 47.2 degrees this morning. We are headed to a high of around 75 degrees later today! Today we are running between 5 to 7 degrees below climo. Perfect weather for mid-April for yours truly!

We will see similar weather like this over this upcoming Easter weekend, especially Saturday.

Also,the prospects for potential severe weather across the area still looks quite decent for Friday into possibly Friday evening. This morning's 06Z GFS shows the potential squall line out ahead of the strong front moving through the area during Friday afternoon into the evening. Also, this would have the squall line pushing through the North Florida region during maximum diurnal heating period Friday afternoon, which would really help add fuel to the fire with the storm development.

This incoming system really is looking very impressive dynamically on both the GFS and EURO runs, although the GFS is even more impressive in showing a deep closed off upper level low pivoting across the Deep South region Friday into Saturday.

SPC at the time of this post still has our area in the slight risk potential, but I am anticipating an upgrade by Thursday, if the current trends I keep monitoring continue. Personally, based on the models, and the shear and helecity values I am seeing currently, I am quite concerned about potential of severe weather across the region on Good Friday in particular. This definitely warrants close monitoring as we get closer to the weekend.