Texas Fall 2022

[harp]

If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.

Explain please

[Iceresistance]

If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.

Explain please

-PNA favors cold in the west with a NW Trough and SE Ridge, positive PNA features the Eastern Trough and NW Ridge, the cold air is more likely to be dumped in the Eastern United States.

The Neutral PNA allows the cold air to be dumped in the Central USA, the most favorable setup regiment for us for cold air is the Neutral PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO.

[bubba hotep]

It's going to be a stormy night across Texas

[gpsnowman]

Saturday could be a soaker. The cold will come with one these systems down the road into winter and then watch out. I hope.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is too inconsistent after this month, different solutions every run!

[harp]

The GFS is probably the most inconsistent that I can recall in a long time. After 160 or so hours it’s been all over the place. Frustrating.

[TropicalTundra]

Mid 50's and light rain here. Low pressure is setting up in the gulf which should make for some decent storms for a good while. Already recorded about 2 1/3 of rain from all these storms

[Iceresistance]

The rain is really coming down now.

[bubba hotep]

GFS looks to stay active with multiple storm systems impacting the Southern Plains over the next two weeks.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

[Iceresistance]

DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!

[bubba hotep]

DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!

Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.

[Ntxw]

DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!

Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.

Best guess the next couple of months the atmosphere will have tendencies of a growing El Nino.

[Iceresistance]

Rain gauge shows 1.1 inches since early this morning!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1596489699333492737

[Itryatgolf]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1596489699333492737?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south

[harp]

As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.

[Cpv17]

As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.

Remember, cold shallow air is very dense. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop it. The models don’t handle these scenarios well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

This is incredible, thank you!

[Brent]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1596489699333492737?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south

I mean there's never guarantees but I'd much rather have this wet pattern we appear to be getting into... The cold will probably come sooner or later. Look at how many times it has snowed west of here already and it's only November(heck 2 flizzards here already). I never saw flakes before January last year