SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1441 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 15, 2008 12:27 pm

Born- NYC, family moved to DFW area about 28 years ago when Dad transferred with American Airlines.

US Navy, basic and "A" school in Illinois, NPS in Orlando, NPTU near Saratoga Springs, NY, ship homeported in Alameda (Oakland) with visits to San Diego, Hawaii, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Western Australia, Thailand, Diego Garcia, short visit (3 hours, waiting on a connecting flight) in Oman. College in Austin, summer internships in Bakersfield, CA, Hattiesburg, MS, Jena, LA, Midland, TX and Monahans, TX. Two years working offshore out of Broussard, laid off, moved to Houston, hired, transferred to New Iberia, girlfriend lived in Houston, found a job there, quit, and now living in unincorporated Harris County in the Spring ISD.


Road tripped from Austin to Ann Arbor once with a bunch of dope smoking hippies and angry lesbians for a co-op conference. Road up with the lesbians, decided on the way back second hand smoke worth it for more cheerful people.

Have been in in airports in Alaska, Pennsylvania and North Carolina without ever leaving the airports.

South Texas temps pushing 90ºF (32ºC), and even well behind the front, in Northwest Texas, dewpoints near/above 50ºF (10º). Hard to pick actual front checking surface obs, because a lot of places have variable or North winds, even in South Texas, but assuming front hasn't reached Houston (thinking front may be marked by leading edge of low clouds on satellite) still have a chance for one more round late afternoon or evening.

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1442 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 15, 2008 12:42 pm

Image


South Texas temps pushing 90ºF (32ºC), and even well behind the front, in Northwest Texas, dewpoints near/above 50ºF (10º). Hard to pick actual front checking surface obs, because a lot of places have variable or North winds, even in South Texas, but assuming front hasn't reached Houston (thinking front may be marked by leading edge of low clouds on satellite) still have a chance for one more round late afternoon or evening.




SPC does not agree, 11:30 pm CDT SWODY1 has SLIGHT RISK line from about CRP to LRD, and states North winds over much of the state will surpress instability to the Southern-most part of the state. They are paid, and their degrees are in met, and they specialize in severe weather forecasting, so odds are they are right and I am wrong.

But skies are clearing out even in the Houston area, winds are turning back to the South and East along the coast, and dewpoints are in the 70s.

And 17Z ruc forecast soundings indicate almost 2000 Joules/Kg of CAPE and between -25 and -100 J/Kg of CINH, so with a little heating, that CINH should go away assuming the winds have indeed stopped coming from the North, and so any little trigger, the actual front, a weak disturbance, whatever, could still trigger one last decent storm in Houston I'll actually be awake for.
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#1443 Postby southerngale » Thu May 15, 2008 1:28 pm

Ah, Ed... interesting.

Well, a few hours ago the NWS expected showers and thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon. But now... they just lowered our rain chances to 10% - I guess Mother Nature really is a fickle *witch, ain't she? :P

That's good, though... it's not like we need more right now.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1444 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 15, 2008 1:48 pm

Interesting, the 17Z RUC fields fromm the SPC web page for the HOU area showed between -25 and -100 J/Kg CINH, and about 2000 J/Kg CAPE, the 18Z from the same place now shows only 1000 J/Kg and in excess of -100 J/Kg of inhibition.


I doubt it actually became that much more stable between 17Z and 18Z, maybe some new information got into the model.

Because one would suggest storms are likely with a little heating provided any little trigger, and one wouldn't.


Might have to do with ACARS data, automated weather data transmitted by some commercial airliners to the NWS, which, by agreement with the airlines involved, isn't disseminated to the public.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1445 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 15, 2008 2:52 pm

Just stepped outside, lots of humble little cumulus clouds, but not a hint of vertical development, and while it is comfortably warm, the winds are from the North, so even if the front hasn't actually passed here, there is not much convergence with the front.

So I'd guess the trained experts are right, and the interested amateur isn't, and HOU has seen it shot at strong storms for the day.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1446 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 15, 2008 3:00 pm

Video link to Lafayette tornado story


Can't quite make out the accent of the reporter in the field.
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#1447 Postby CajunMama » Thu May 15, 2008 4:57 pm

She's Sarah Forgany. According to klfy.com she comes to ch.10 from houston but was born and raised in cairo, egypt.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1448 Postby rainman31 » Thu May 15, 2008 7:25 pm

We still did not see much rain this week in the clear lake area.
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#1449 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu May 15, 2008 7:46 pm

Tomorrow looks nice! The forecast calls for a high only in the upper 70s under partly sunny skies followed by a low Saturday morning only in the lower to middle 50s. For mid May, this kind of weather is almost unheard of around these parts (The record low maxiumum at IAH for May 16th is 76F and the record low minimum for May 17th is 52F)!
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Nice start to the weekend!

#1450 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 17, 2008 2:55 pm

Sprinkles now at the house from a mid-level cloud deck. I can see some patches of blue sky to the North and the Southwest.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Nice start to the weekend!

#1451 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 17, 2008 3:18 pm

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1452 Postby Innotech » Sun May 18, 2008 1:15 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Video link to Lafayette tornado story


Can't quite make out the accent of the reporter in the field.

That was quite a storm. I live in the Broadmoor area and one tornado passed to the east and one to the west.
It was defonitely a wakeup call that morning. Luckily it was 20 minutes before 7:00 so nobody was at work yet.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Warming Up!

#1453 Postby jasons2k » Mon May 19, 2008 11:38 am

What a gorgeous weekend!! Saturday was a perfect day to visit the Strand and some friends on Galveston. Yesterday was great weather for the pool (or at least assembling the new patio set and jumping-in when it got too hot).

Luckily, these late-season cool snaps haven't messed-with my pool plans - and now it looks like we are truly home free until fall :D .

Here is a morning update from Jeff:

Upper ridge to build over the area resulting in summer heat for this week.

High pressure will build aloft over the region after a coolish weekend by May standards. The result will be strong heating as SW US heatwave spreads into the plains. Expect lower 90’s today and mid 90’s on Tuesday before southerly low level flow becomes established brining tropical Gulf air mass back into the region and tempering daytime highs.

Should see the return of high PWS air mass from the southern Gulf and Caribbean Sea by Wednesday along with 70 degree dewpoints, Highs will sink back to around 90…however with the increased humidity it will feel hotter.

Large scale and deep longwave trough develops over the western US…however upper pattern becomes blocky with strong ridge over the Midwest which will hold the trough in place. While upper flow becomes SW on Thursday and a disturbance or tow could move across resulting in a few storms…very warm mid level temps. will be in place…so a cap will have to be overcome.

By week’s end 1.8-2.1 inch PWS arrive into the area and given afternoon heating isolated storms may fire along the seabreeze boundary as trough remains anchored well to our west and all the jet energy will be north of SE TX. For now 20-30% for afternoon storms along with hot, breezy and humid conditions Thursday through Memorial Day.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: The Heat is on!

#1454 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue May 20, 2008 4:43 pm

IAH has tied a daily record at 94ºF from 2003. One year prior to that, a record low of 54ºF was tied,
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: The Heat is on!

#1455 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 21, 2008 9:47 am

Weak low to mid-level winds, as sampled at CRP, means the mega-capping hot, dry air from the Mexican plateau is probably not blowing over Southeast Texas. Abundance of cumulus/strat-cu this morning implies at least low level moisture is sufficient, and wind speeds are light enough to allow a sea breeze.


So, maybe, somebody a few miles inland in SE Texas might get lucky enough for an afternoon shower/storm on the sea breeze boundary. Only negative, both LCH and CRP soundings show moisture is pretty shallow, below about 900 mb level.

Image
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: The Heat is on!

#1456 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 21, 2008 10:08 am

Yesterday sure was a hot one!

I hit 100F at my house.

Bush Airport hit a record high of 95F.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: The Heat is on!

#1457 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 21, 2008 12:32 pm

Per SWODY2, storm chances are fairly low, but conditions may favor one or two strong ones SE TX or SW Louisiana.

(We are in a "SEE TEXT" area)


...ERN AND CNTRL TX/OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A
BROAD 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF
ERN TX...AR AND LA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING EXACTLY
WHERE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
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#1458 Postby southerngale » Thu May 22, 2008 12:56 pm

Well, I wasn't expecting much rain or anything today, but the weather alert has gone off several times already giving warnings, with strong storms moving off the Gulf. We weren't in any kind of watch beforehand. It's not bad where I am... just thunderstorms.

The latest:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC241-245-351-361-221815-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0081.080522T1751Z-080522T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES VIDOR...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIDOR...AND MOVING NORTH AT 27 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GIST BY 110 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3045 9400 3043 9383 3004 9394 3005 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 189DEG 24KT 3014 9398
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#1459 Postby CajunMama » Thu May 22, 2008 1:21 pm

Strong storms starting to move in from the gom here. And you would know my ragin cajuns are supposed to play baseball at 4. :grr: Umbrellas probably won't be allowed in the stadium, at least they're not in football.
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#1460 Postby southerngale » Thu May 22, 2008 1:46 pm

It's not raining here anymore and the sun keeps peeking out. A new warning north of here though...


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC241-351-221930-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0084.080522T1843Z-080522T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
143 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES KIRBYVILLE...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...CALL...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KIRBYVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWTON BY 210 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3070 9401 3100 9384 3093 9364 3053 9389
3060 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 213DEG 28KT 3068 9392
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