MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...
   
   VALID 062235Z - 070000Z
   
   IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ENOUGH HEATING OCCURRED NEAR/JUST
   AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 50+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS
   PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STABILIZING IN
   SUBSIDENT REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF JET...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
   INHIBITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  STILL...SOME
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STORMS EAST OF JUNCTION...AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
   TO JUNCTION...NEAR DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30769949 31239823 31209780 30759761 30159789 29919847
   29839913 30159976 30750008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0823 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...
   
   VALID 070123Z - 070230Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.
   
   NARROW LINGERING TONGUE OF HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF DRY
   LINE...AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF SAN
   ANTONIO...MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  HOWEVER... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
   TO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.  GIVEN CONTINUING
   MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FORCING...RISK FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE 02-03Z
   TIME FRAME APPEARS LOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
   
   30030011 30189967 30329934 30409891 30099863 29489919
   29569980 29700012

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0956 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND S
   CNTRL GA AND SWRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071456Z - 071700Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
   ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN AND S CNTRL GA...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL
   PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SC LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW
   MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL SC WWD THROUGH N CNTRL
   GA AND INTO CNTRL AL THEN SWWD TO SERN MS. A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL
   THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL INTO N CNTRL GA.
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS ADVECTING NEWD
   THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE HEATING THIS
   AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS
   EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
   DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO AL WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
   THE SERN U.S. TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY A RATHER
   MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES. HOWEVER A 50 KT UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT. MIXED MODE STORM
   TYPES ARE EXPECTED... INCLUDING MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS
   WITH BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30848684 32028480 33028374 33058148 32278086 30818239
   30358478

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SW NEB/NW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071822Z - 071945Z
   
   ...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...
   
   FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN CO/NW
   KS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED VIGOROUS MIXING TO OCCUR.
   THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   500-1000 J/KG. THE REAL LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT
   /PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER DATA/ WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS
   GIVEN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
   LATER THIS AFTN WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING...AS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   38830055 36990148 36980305 38500377 39500356 40170298
   40960191 40500037 39490036

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071830Z - 072000Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 19-22Z...AND A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
   MOUNTAINS IN SW TX...AND NEAR SANDERSON.  INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS
   IN THE CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 80
   F...WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 59-66 F.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE MID LEVELS...PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE
   THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
   ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY BY 19-20Z.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29750263 30830374 31480334 31560250 31290203 30900143
   30200075 29670037 29170039 29030061 29600130 29740203

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL
   GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...
   
   VALID 071911Z - 072115Z
   
   STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON SRN END OF THE MCS FROM
   THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH SWRN GA AND THEN
   WWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT
   AROUND 25 KT. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE
   ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER IN THOMAS
   COUNTY OF EXTREME SRN GA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE FL PANHANDLE.
   STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
   INGEST FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
   AND EXTREME SRN GA. VWP DATA SHOWS THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ON
   TRAILING END OF MCS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER WIND
   PROFILES. IN ADDITION TO POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AS THEY TRAIN EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   30248346 30018499 30418603 30608599 30728562 30878442
   31108324

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...
   
   VALID 071955Z - 072200Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS ERN
   SC...BUT PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF SC
   WWD INTO N CNTRL GA. SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST ACROSS ERN SC WITHIN
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS
   STORM MERGERS HAVE RESULTED IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO MOSTLY MULTICELL
   MODES...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE MITIGATED THE TORNADO THREAT.
   MOREOVER...OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ERN SC.
   OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...
   
   32757923 31818066 31618172 32688189 33437997

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072216Z - 072345Z
   
   ...PORTIONS OF KS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   TONIGHT...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER WRN KS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS OVER KS...AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KT. THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAIRLY NARROW...AS STRATUS DECK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
   KS MOST OF THE DAY HAS INHIBITED STRONG INSOLATION. THIS SUGGESTS
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LARGELY DIURNAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   WITH STORM OVER LOGAN CO AND POSSIBLY A FEW COUNTIES EAST FOR THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF KS/OK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...UNLESS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP
   WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL OR IF STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS. AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   37689975 37050022 37040207 38550179 39610151 39980082
   40009912 38489954

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL
   SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072305Z - 080000Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 303 MAY BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.  SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR A BRIEF
   PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT A
   NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   IN WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MORE STRONGLY
   HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL
   GEORGIA...ACROSS THE MACON AREA AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA/
   AUGUSTA.  THIS IS STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS
   1000 J/KG...AND FORCING NEAR 50 TO 60 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
   ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS SUPPORTING INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA.  EVOLUTION
   OF A SMALL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE AS
   ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MACON AREA THROUGH 00-01Z.  THIS COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL DEVELOPING SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL AND
   ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO RISK
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...EAST SOUTHEAST OF MACON...
   LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES MORE RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   33298436 33408373 33128042 32568010 31578101 31118153
   31138261 32098346 32318380 32768470 33208464

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...
   
   VALID 080053Z - 080230Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...
   
   SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WHICH WILL AFFECT MIDLAND AND
   POINTS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR EXCEEDS 60 KT ON 00Z MIDLAND SOUNDING...WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW
   LEVEL VEERING/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
   THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40 KT. LOW LEVEL ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   TRANSITIONING TO LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   29550039 29510219 31450277 32920323 33030124 32850045
   29609962

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0915 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...TX PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...
   
   VALID 080215Z - 080315Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 306.
   
   AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
   EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER KANSAS
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN
   POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER TROUGH...THIS FORCING WILL BE
   SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE
   DESTABILIZATION/LIFT NEAR 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SPEED MAXIMUM MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH 06Z. MOST
   UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF
   FREE CONVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT.  AND...DESPITE COOLING SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
   PANHANDLE...SOURCE REGION FOR DOWNDRAFTS APPEARS POTENTIALLY
   COOL/DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   37110151 37460035 37719971 37609901 36539835 36039878
   35719937 35039965 34470059 34620188 34830256 35410261
   364001782

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...
   
   VALID 080420Z - 080515Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. A
   NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROADLY
   ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
   THE EAST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  WITH DEMISE OF SUPERCELL ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
   OF SYSTEM...STORMS NOW APPEAR ROOTED ENTIRELY ABOVE DEEPENING
   SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS
   BEGINNING TO ADVECT EAST OF THE PLATEAU REGION...COOLER/COOLING
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION
   ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 35
   CORRIDOR BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31589853 32169774 32249677 31849637 30779651 29889837
   29779934 30400021

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S CNTRL KS...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...
   
   VALID 080451Z - 080545Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 306 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.
   
   STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE
   TO SHIFT AWAY FROM HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
   AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL EVEN OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY WEAKENS.  ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
   HOURS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   35370105 35939992 36439923 37699891 38079849 38019703
   36979636 35309728 34469849 34430085

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081512Z - 081715Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
   ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS FROM NEAR FORTH WORTH
   TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SE KS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   ALONG THE AXIS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
   LOCATED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THIS MOIST AXIS WHERE ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN OK. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF
   OF INSTABILITY GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
   REGIONAL PROFILERS AT 15Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN
   ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES LOCATED FROM I-35 EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR THE OK-AR
   STATE-LINE. THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS
   MOVE EWD ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34519823 35079769 35069651 34569566 33979528 33579529
   33249559 32859609 32799649 33039759 33879835

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081543Z - 081745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
   TO WEST ACROSS SRN GA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY. WARMING SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EVEN
   IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES IN SRN GA AND NRN FL ARE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
   STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
   
   29938246 29858495 30138530 30748533 31228500 31308298
   31238149 30228139

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081701Z - 081900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
   FROM EAST TX ACROSS SCNTRL LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A
   CAPPING INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS. THIS INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY
   INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH STORMS LIKELY
   INITIATING BY 19Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN
   DISCRETE. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR IN PLACE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   31088558 30298559 29788628 29798868 29859147 29679316
   29579417 30019461 30599463 31199379 31459183 31478823
   31398630

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082040Z - 082245Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK
   ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS
   IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
   WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING
   INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
   CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO
   WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984
   40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR/NRN LA/WRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082142Z - 082315Z
   
   ...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND WATCH
   MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY...
   
   LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S/SE
   OF ELD WWD TO TYR. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO
   THE 80S...BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500
   J/KG. DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS. RECENT DATA FROM WINNFIELD LA PROFILER SHOWS ELONGATED
   HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. IN
   ADDITION...SHORTWAVE/MCV TYPE FEATURE NOW MOVING INTO SW AR WILL
   LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION. AS STORMS NOW ALONG AR/LA BORDER...WHICH
   HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30979127 31289337 32769362 33299360 33519322 33679240
   33599127 33158940 32048951 31198973

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082210Z - 082315Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH INITIATED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO
   ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   DEL RIO.  THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN BROADLY
   ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...AND SEEMS TO BE NECESSARY FOR
   SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE RIVER...INTO AREAS
   SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO BY EARLY EVENING.  IF HEATING/UPSLOPE HAS
   BEEN PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING DEVELOPMENT...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
   SUPERCELLS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR/JUST
   WEST OF THE RIVER.  CELLS COULD APPROACH OR CROSS RIVER...BUT MAY
   NOT POSE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   29510117 29610076 29540012 29399931 29339902 29119871
   28629844 27949813 27569812 27259804 26549822 26229851

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN /CNTRL KS...SE NEB...NW MO...
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307...
   
   VALID 082238Z - 082345Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT.  ADDITIONAL
   WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE
   MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z.
   
   STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS.  INITIAL
   IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY...BUT EXIT REGION OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMUM IS
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND SUPPORTING ONGOING
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT/DRY
   LINE INTERSECTION NEAR HILL CITY.  AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO
   SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING....PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY
   AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OMAHA SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS MODERATE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR EXPANDING
   STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39340016 39599948 39829844 40619708 41659607 42379527
   41789417 40889402 39489552 38729702 38049797 37969890
   38100033 38470101 38990107