MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090004Z - 090100Z
   
   SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY FORCED BY MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW.  CAPE IS WEAK IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD ALLIANCE.  WEAK
   BUT EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
   PANHANDLE IS ALSO ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR/SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND
   CONFIGURATION BENEATH 45 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SHEAR/
   THERMODYNAMIC REGIME BECOMES MORE UNFAVORABLE EAST OF THE ALLIANCE
   AREA...AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING
   SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING OF STORMS BY 01-02Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
   
   41890334 42480289 42280223 41810230 41460282 41410333
   41510365 41640381

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/MS/SW AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308...
   
   VALID 090042Z - 090215Z
   
   ...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING WITH SUPERCELLS
   ENTERING WRN MS. WATCH WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AND NEW WATCH WILL
   BE ISSUED EWD INTO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   
   NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.
   AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S CNTRL MS TO 70S NEAR THE GULF
   COAST...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
   TERRIBLY STRONG /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KT/ AND THAT MAY LIMIT
   TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A
   POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL.
   OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   30278549 30379370 32989400 32108495

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS THRU SE NEB/NW MO AND WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090047Z - 090145Z
   
   CONTINUE WEATHER WATCHES 307 AND 309.
   
   MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
   PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
   WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS.  RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LOW RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...WHICH MAY SPREAD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS INTO
   AREAS WEST/NORTH OF MANHATTAN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER/MORE
   UNFAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 02-03Z SEEMS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...ACROSS FAR
   NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
   FORCING NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ENHANCED BY BETTER SHEAR
   PROFILES NEAR SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN
   SOME THIS EVENING AS A 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE PROGRESSES
   ACROSS NEBRASKA.  SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...
   CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW MAY BECOME TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
   FURTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS.  BUT...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   39819838 40299772 40629730 41209706 41709666 42549610
   42799526 42449435 41539370 40749426 40109506 39689565
   38989735 38859816 37989950 37560067 38320054 39079935

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / FL PANHANDLE / SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090300Z - 090500Z
   
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS JUST E OF WW 310. GIVEN EXPECTED DECREASE IN
   INTENSITIES...ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST EWD OUT OF THE CURRENT WW. HOWEVER...SURFACE
   ANALYSIS AND 00Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWS A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FARTHER EWD INTO GA AND NRN FL WITH MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES.
   WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE FEED FROM THE
   SW...EXPECT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30448630 31698607 31518410 30798325 29968340 30018398
   29688514 30268597

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SE NE...NW MO...WRN AND CNTRL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090359Z - 090530Z
   
   WW 309 WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
   AND NEW WW.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE LAPSE RATES IN EARLIER PRE-
   FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN IOWA.
    MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE DEEPENING
   SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...AND AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EASTWARD...
   TENDENCY TO INGEST COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR ON EASTERLY STORM
   RELATIVE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WEAKENING TRENDS SHORTLY
   AFTER 05Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
   
   SIMILAR TRENDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PORTION OF LINE EXHIBITING BOW ECHO
   REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AS IT APPROACHES THE
   MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER AREA...AROUND KANSAS CITY...BY 06-07Z.  UNTIL
   FURTHER WEAKENING OCCURS...WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL MAY CONTINUE TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG
   THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
   
   ABOVE COLD POOL...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ON NOSE
   OF WARMER/CAPPING MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUPPORTING
   MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   CONTINUING HAIL THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   WHETHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   ANOTHER CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  BUT...IF THIS OCCURS...
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF SURFACE BASED
   STABLE LAYER.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   42519496 43269403 43279243 42719191 41279263 40269418
   39459488 38309554 37639636 37049827 37230029 37370081
   39019938

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...
   
   VALID 090613Z - 090745Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED...
   
   THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS SCNTRL KS...WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW DEVELOPING INTO EXTREME NRN OK ON NOSE OF
   VEERED LLJ.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
   UPDRAFTS ARE GRADUALLY EVOLVING TO THE SW...AND EVEN SE OF THIS SRN
   MOST ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  LARGE
   HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS NEW ACTIVITY AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   37849663 37809486 36899458 36109516 36209660 36749847

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090837Z - 091030Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
   THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   WELL ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NERN GULF
   OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING SEWD AT
   ROUGHLY 35KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   ONSHORE AROUND 10Z.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
   WEAK...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
   MAINTAINING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THROUGH SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
   AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE
   NOTED AS THIS CONVECTIONS SPREADS TOWARD THE COAST.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...
   
   29348295 28928219 28088227 28058335 28378362 28828330

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SE LA...SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091447Z - 091645Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LA AND PENSACOLA
   FL. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL WILL INCREASE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD
   FROM NRN LA ACROSS SRN MS TO NEAR MOBILE AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST
   OF THE GRADIENT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
   IS PRESENT...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL
   ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA EVIDENT
   ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANSION OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
   SFC-BASED. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30349008 30739068 31169080 31579067 31949007 31788840
   31378682 30848647 30298661 29868737 30018844

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...
   
   VALID 091500Z - 091700Z
   
   A CONVECTIVE LINE AND AN ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   ESEWD INTO NE AR AND WRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT
   MAY CONTINUE WITH THE LINE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NE AR AND IS
   JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE
   FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND THIS IS RESULTING IN
   INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB
   AND THE ENHANCED SHEAR IS SUPPORTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING
   AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE LINE MAY REINTENSIFY
   ACROSS FAR NE AR AND WRN TN. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   35119006 35429126 36029164 36719128 36928992 36448875
   35498870

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR NRN MS...FAR NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...
   
   VALID 091729Z - 091900Z
   
   A LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EAST
   OF WW 315 ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN
   MS INTO WRN TN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. SFC HEATING
   ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
   SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE
   MCS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW
   ALOFT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AS
   THE JET PUNCHES EWD SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR
   AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS
   THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   35008965 35678999 36238968 36868895 36778755 36578645
   36008587 35348590 34738652

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091833Z - 092000Z
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MS
   OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY
   19Z.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS AND NW AL WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS NRN MS AND
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH NRN MS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY BE
   ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...A MESOSCALE THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS NE
   MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO NE MS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
   
   33368934 33459058 34329086 34949003 34898843 34078819
   33508844

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091955Z - 092200Z
   
   A PERSISTENT LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN ATTM. A
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD
   INTO ERN TN AND NRN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY
   REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE FURTHER EAST.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE
   MCS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY
   IS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING FURTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE MCS WITH THE STRONGEST
   PART OF THE MCS LIKELY TURNING SEWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A
   MID-LEVEL JET BUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE
   STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET OVER SRN MO. THIS
   MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ESPECIALLY
   AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ERN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL...AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EXISTS FROM THE TUPELO MS AREA NEWD TO THE HUNTSVILLE AL VICINITY.
   AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS CORRIDOR...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LINE TO
   BE MAINTAINED SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   33818774 34348839 35158807 36488695 36438560 35758530
   33668686

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092045Z - 092245Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL OK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   LIKELY UPON INITIATION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE TX
   ACROSS ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F.
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CAPPING
   INVERSION HAS WEAKENED EVIDENT ON THE 19Z OUN SOUNDING. THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
   EAST OF OKC ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH
   STILL UNCERTAIN...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
   INITIATION OCCURRING IN ECNTRL OK WITH AN MCS CLUSTER ORGANIZING AND
   MOVING SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN
   OK AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS
   THAT DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
   SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD INTO SE OK...THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33069523 33149738 34609803 35649757 35989648 35749495
   34559453 33799462

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS....CNTRL AND WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092057Z - 092300Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F
   ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MS AND PARTS OF SW AL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   PRESENT IN THIS AREA WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS ORIENTED ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON WSR-88D VWPS SUGGESTS
   THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   31488658 31748867 33238915 34238858 34288789 33938716
   32908650 32208625

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092108Z - 092245Z
   
   ...SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING PENDING STORM INITIATION. WW
   WOULD BE NECESSARY IF STORMS DEVELOP...
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
   THE EDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INVOF JCT/ECU. SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDS
   EAST OF ABI/SJT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN
   THE LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND
   VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
   POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLD TORNADO IF STORMS FORM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   29829809 29219986 29620060 30140037 31059969 31429896
   31379802 30909759 30379770

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NE OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092146Z - 092315Z
   
   ...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS SRN MO INTO NE OK AND WATCH
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHORTLY...
   
   RESIDUAL COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM DOUGLAS CO
   MISSOURI SWWD INTO NE OK. BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWWD JUST SE OF THE OKC
   AREA WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN
   NORMAN/SHAWNEE PER RADAR DATA FROM NORMAN. STORMS HAVE ALREADY
   DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MO...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING FARTHER SOUTHWEST JUDGING BY SWELLING
   CUMULUS INTO OKLAHOMA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON PROFILER DATA IS
   IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. BACKED FLOW ACROSS MUSKOGEE/SEQUOYAH COUNTIES
   EWD SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT IF DISCRETE
   STORMS CAN FORM INVOF OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   36899097 35979362 35709628 36279649 37119608 37549465
   37619273 37579145 37519093

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SW KS...THE TX/OK PHNDLS...AND WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092156Z - 100000Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS READILY
   EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NOW WEST THROUGH NORTH
   OF DALHART TEXAS.  GIVEN LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS IN POST
   OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CAPE IS WEAK...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE
   STEEP AND MAY SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH EVOLVING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z.  LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  AND...MODERATE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW CONFIGURATION FOR
   INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BENEATH 40 KT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   36510185 37080122 37340032 37239936 37029882 36659825
   36149810 35369926 34790004 34510116 34510201 34840331
   35220357 35700349 36040255

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NW AR...SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...320...
   
   VALID 092330Z - 100100Z
   
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY
   SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF LOW
   CENTER THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU.  EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
   WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN STRONGER
   STORMS...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH BEST PROFILES LIKELY
   DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION OF STORMS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO NARROW INSTABILITY
   AXIS FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH AR THROUGH THE WEST PLAINS MO
   AREA...WHILE STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO
   SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35139699 35709591 36299478 36669368 36969235 36979112
   36699055 36399089 36119198 35819308 35399388 35109442
   34229453 33749513 33599579 33739683 34699715

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...319...
   
   VALID 092333Z - 100030Z
   
   ...LINGERING SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS WITH
   TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS...
   
   WATCH 317 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...BUT CYCLIC SUPERCELL NOW
   OVER SMITH COUNTY WILL STILL POSE A THREAT BEYOND THAT TIME.
   PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
   THE ONGOING RISK. OTHER STORMS FROM WINSTON CO SWD TO CLARKE CO WILL
   BE MOVING INTO AL...AND WATCH 319.
   
   IMPULSE ACROSS SE MS IS NOTED IN WV LOOPS AND THIS IS ENHANCING
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MS/AL...AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
   RECENT RADAR DATA FROM MOBILE AL SUGGEST HISTORY OF MESOCYCLONE
   SIGNATURES WITH DISCRETE CELLS NOW ABOUT 40 ESE OF JACKSON MS AND
   STORMS NOW OVER CHOCTAW AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN SRN AL. VAD WIND DATA
   FROM MOBILE INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH WIND LAYER
   PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO THREAT. OTHER
   THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   31138658 30978860 31729019 32669014 32898976 33008879
   32838656 32598588 31888520 31298548

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX/TX PNHDL INTO SW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...
   
   VALID 100106Z - 100230Z
   
   MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING/
   INTENSIFYING...MOSTLY HIGH-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG ZONE
   OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
   EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.
   
   CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY NEAR
   850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 03Z.  THIS
   WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST POST FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
   DOWNDRAFTS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVOLVING COLD POOL WITH
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   35670080 36060029 36119923 35799819 35249769 34379805
   34109894 34250000 34450075 34760102 35180106