Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hey Expatcarib 2 always no watches in Dominica? What is the situation?

[expat2carib]

Hey Expatcarib 2 always no watches in Dominica? What is the situation?

No watch at all

I made my preparations.

It's sunny and little to no winds. Anything new on Martinique? Looks like Ana is getting hurt right now by dry air.

Some of the models have it going over the north of Dominica tonight.

[cycloneye]

The plane this afternoon will find out if this is still Ana.

From 11 AM discussion.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ANA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. IF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
FINDS ANA IS A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

[msbee]

when would we get that report, Luis?

[Gustywind]

Storm watch for you ExpatCarib2, look at that...Guadeloupe on a direct hit , Dominica not so far

[Gustywind]

Msbee for you
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161438
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE TO INVESTIGATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR DOMINICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 430
MILES...690 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ON THIS TRACK ANA SHOULD REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 55.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

when would we get that report, Luis?

11 AM Advisory discussion.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 161443
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

ANA CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0950 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME
BELIEVABLE 30 KT WINDS...AND ASSUMING WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE INTENSITY IS HELD GENEROUSLY AT
35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP
DETERMINE IF ANA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF ANA IS RATHER DRY AND DOMINATED BY
SUBSIDENCE...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADIOSONDE
DATA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT ANA WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEGATIVE FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...ONLY
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE INTENSITY OF ANA WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH WEAKENING.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
SHOWING A QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FIRST 3 OR 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE
IS A SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOWING
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED
TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 5 AND SHOWS A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ANA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. IF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
FINDS ANA IS A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.8N 55.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 15.2N 58.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 16.1N 62.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.1N 66.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 18.3N 70.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 25.5N 85.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161441
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

.UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM ANA LOOKING RATHER RAGGED THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER SEEMED TO POINT TO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN THAN A TROPICAL STORM. ALSO BUOY
41040...WHICH SHOULD HAVE CAPTURED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS
MORNING...SUPPORTED THE NHC MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATION OF
1005 MB...BUT ONLY SHOWED ABOUT 20 KNOTS. STILL SOME QUIKSCAT
DATA INDICATING SOME AREAS OF 30 KT IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY...WITH NEARLY NOTHING SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NHC IS
KEEPING INTENSITY THE SAME AS THE 5AM PACKAGE...WITH THE TRACK
SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. NEVERTHELESS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCH STILL IN PLACE...MODELS STILL POINTING TO SOME
INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS BEFORE INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA...SO DOUBT WE WILL HAVE ANY CHANGE IN THE WATCH
SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...TROPICAL STORM
FORCED WIND CORE...IF ANY WILL ONLY AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. WILL PROBABLY
TUNE DOWN WINDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...AND CAP SEAS AT 8 FEET
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THAT SHOULD MATCH UP DECENTLY WITH TPC
OFFSHORE FORECAST.

UNTIL THE FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EXTREME OF THE
CIRCULATION ARRIVE...WE SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT
PATTERN. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLY WEATHER SHOULD HIT THE VI
WITH THE INITIAL WIND SURGE TOMORROW BY 12Z AND OVER PR BY 18Z.
WILL KEEP A SOLID EYE ON ANY STRUCTURAL AND INTENSITY
CHANGES...BUT FOR NOW LOOKING LIKE WEAK TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS FOR
OUR AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY 12Z TOMORROW OVER
THE LEEWARDS...BECOMING MVFR FOR THE USVI 12-15Z AND PR 18-21Z TOMORROW.

&&

[expat2carib]

Storm watch for you ExpatCarib2, look at that...Guadeloupe on a direct hit , Dominica not so far

I know and watching. Thanks! I hope it will be a minimum impact for all islands and then a poof. She's weak.

[Gustywind]

Storm watch for you ExpatCarib2, look at that...Guadeloupe on a direct hit , Dominica not so far

I know and watching. Thanks! I hope it will be a minimum impact for all islands and then a poof. She's weak.

No problem my friend always a pleasure to keep you informed. Hope nothing more than a pretty weak system, but i don't like weak system, they're always nasty and suspicious, people in Guadeloupe often tend to let the guard down, and by safety Meteo-France shoud put an orange code tonight in case of, that will incredible to have TS during a night without alerts!. Whereas if this TS is much weaker, maybe no orange code, alert will be requiered and that will the excellent news of the day but we're a bit far away from that, but i stay optimistic for this outcome.

[msbee]

I used the How close can it get tool on stromcarib.com
and these were the results for St. Maarten.

On its projected path as of the 11:00 AM update, Ana will pass South of us.
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Ana is located near 16.3N, 63.6W or about 122.8 miles (197.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 26.7 hours (Monday, August 17 at 1:42PM AST

And Bill will pass most likely North of us. In fact, North of the entire Caribbean, which is great news.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Bill is located near 21.4N, 60.2W or about 300.5 miles (483.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 102.4 hours (Thursday, August 20 at 5:24PM AST).

I also did it for Guadeloupe, Gusty, and this is the result

Results for Guadeloupe (16.27N, 61.52W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.9N, 61.6W or about 29.2 miles (46.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 20.8 hours (Monday, August 17 at 7:48AM AST).

Of course, we still must closely monitor both storms as a little fluctuation one way or the other can be an entirely different picture.

[expat2carib]

I used the How close can it get tool on stromcarib.com
and these were the results for St. Maarten.

On its projected path as of the 11:00 AM update, Ana will pass South of us.
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Ana is located near 16.3N, 63.6W or about 122.8 miles (197.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 26.7 hours (Monday, August 17 at 1:42PM AST

And Bill will pass most likely North of us. In fact, North of the entire Caribbean, which is great news.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Bill is located near 21.4N, 60.2W or about 300.5 miles (483.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 102.4 hours (Thursday, August 20 at 5:24PM AST).

I also did it for Guadeloupe, Gusty, and this is the result

Results for Guadeloupe (16.27N, 61.52W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.9N, 61.6W or about 29.2 miles (46.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 20.8 hours (Monday, August 17 at 7:48AM AST).

Of course, we still must closely monitor both storms as a little fluctuation one way or the other can be an entirely different picture.

Results for Dominica (15.53N, 61.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.8N, 61.2W or about 17.1 miles (27.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 19.6 hours (Monday, August 17 at 6:36AM AST).

[Gustywind]

I used the How close can it get tool on stromcarib.com
and these were the results for St. Maarten.

On its projected path as of the 11:00 AM update, Ana will pass South of us.
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Ana is located near 16.3N, 63.6W or about 122.8 miles (197.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 26.7 hours (Monday, August 17 at 1:42PM AST

And Bill will pass most likely North of us. In fact, North of the entire Caribbean, which is great news.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for Bill is located near 21.4N, 60.2W or about 300.5 miles (483.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 102.4 hours (Thursday, August 20 at 5:24PM AST).

I also did it for Guadeloupe, Gusty, and this is the result

Results for Guadeloupe (16.27N, 61.52W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 15.9N, 61.6W or about 29.2 miles (46.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 20.8 hours (Monday, August 17 at 7:48AM AST).

Of course, we still must closely monitor both storms as a little fluctuation one way or the other can be an entirely different picture.

Oh tkanks Barbara, i appreciate . You know like me that with these two features: always watching them closely, we all know theirs gimmicks, YOYO string . Anna is pretty closer to me... hope no more from this slim lady...
Keep watching Anna at near terms, and Bill too heading apparently more wnw on a missing trend of the islands, but very too too early to confirms that, be vigilant all!

[abajan]

Winds here have diminished somewhat since earlier this morning, as usually happens when a storm is passing to our north. I pray that all of you in harms way will experience minimum impact from this still immature system.

[Gustywind]

Interresting info from a carib islander at Stormcarib site...

Update
From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 2009 11:21:59 -0400

The very first outer “band” of ANA just passed through here and the wind went straight into the north. Hardly any wind but noticeable.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

[expat2carib]

TCUAT2
update:
TROPICAL STORM ANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Why they "never" name Dominica? It's a poor island and as it looks now (using the how close can it get tool)it comes "right" on our head.

[Gustywind]

Winds here have diminished somewhat since earlier this morning, as usually happens when a storm is passing to our north. I pray that all of you in harms way will experience minimum impact from this still immature system.

Good analysis, absolutely Abajan you're right. Keep us informed as possible.
Immature lady, but she's pretty courageous with that dry air, she's a fighter as it debuts, this thing was to forecasted to pass at 20N 40W there's 5 or 6 days ago and she's churning near the Leewards, maybe is finding something ?...a fish to go fishing, hope she will miss the islands of struggles a bit...
I'd prefer that:




Hey hey talking about the immature lady, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are under an ORANGE CODE!

I will keep you informed soon...
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Making a comeback.

[Gustywind]

ORANGE CODE FOR GUADELOUPE AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...
TROPICAL STORM ANNA
Weather forecast given Meteo-France for Guadeloupe: 11 AM

Position: At 11AM, the center of Anna was at 14,8 N 55,8W, 500 kilometers of Dominica, Roseau.
Actual caracteristics
Intensity: weak TS.
Sustained winds: 38 kts (65 kilometers per hour). Gusts: 46 kts (85 kilometers per hour).
34 KT....... 100 N Pressure: 1005 hpa

Present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 20 kt

Weather forecast:
The storm stays with a weak intensity and maintains it self in a pretty south position. The center of the system should pass very close to Guadeloupe tonight and tommorow morning. We expect tonight showers with tstorms, gusts under the strongest squall line could reach 46 to 49 KTS, sea becoming rough especially tommorow.
This bad weather should persist until tommorow morning (12AM).

Consequences:
The effects expected are near a weak TS, the winds staying moderate out of the strongest squalls lines.
Summary:
The risk of this feature is moderate.
Impact expected: moderate.
Duration:
Effects of the storm: tonight until Monday 12AM.
Next advisory: this Saturday at 530PM.