Florida Weather

[NDG]

Regarding models' 7-14 day range, if the NAO goes positive along with the AO as forecasted and the PNA stays neutral to negative forget about the models showing yesterday's runs coming to fruition.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is going with a long-wave trough and multiple short waves that pivot around the trough. This is a pattern that can bring cold air down the peninsula, let’s see if the models continue to show this as the timeframe comes in

[boca]

Won’t happen unless the NAO goes negative

[psyclone]

Now that we're in late November we don't need a cold blast for pleasant weather...or to coax a cold front into the region. While a cold shot may not be on the docket...nor is a return to the torchy conditions that dogged us in recent past years this time of year. Normalish weather delivers what many crave. No wonder we're crawling with out of state plates. After a late start...Fall Florida style is really delivering this year

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS this morning is advertising a nice cool down for Dec 1-4 for the Eastern CONUS and seaboard. It could bring the first freeze of the Fall/Winter 2019-2020 season for portions of North and Northeast Florida for next week, the first week of December. It also would come at a time in which the GEFS has been forecasting a + PNA at the start of December, Dec 1-7, which makes sense if the GEFS is close to being right.. The 00Z EURO from last night was even deeper with the upper trough. The GFS, EURO, and CMC all also show a reinforcement of the upper trough again Dec 5-8.

[psyclone]

The entire continental United States is at or below normal on today's 6-10 day outlook. Cooler times are ahead...Florida is tagged below normal on the 8-14 day as well. What a difference a month makes...not only in absolute temps...but deviations from normal as well

[northjaxpro]

The entire continental United States is at or below normal on today's 6-10 day outlook. Cooler times are ahead...Florida is tagged below normal on the 8-14 day as well. What a difference a month makes...not only in absolute temps...but deviations from normal as well

I have been in daily bliss with this weather we have seen this month in November. We have finally actually experienced an Autumn season for a change in these parts. This month, I have only measured two days at 80 degrees or above to this juncture. It has been fabulous weather, with mainly 40s at night and 60s for max temps for most of the month here. I feel Mother Nature owed us big time for this after recent record November heat spells we have seen in recent years, including last year. I am loving this for sure!! This is perfect holiday season weather for this area, as good as it can possibly get for yours truly!

We may see max temps approaching 80F either Turkey Day or on Black Friday here in Jax as the ridge will build back across the area and return southerly flow will be back in place. But, it will not be of anomalous heat we saw in Nov. 2018 thankfully!!!

Yes we have touched on earlier in posts above that I mentioned it looks as if the GEFS forecasts of the PNA briefly trending positive is looking to verify to begin December, and colder times are in store for the Eastern CONUS and Deep South for next week. Models in good agreement showing significant cool spell all during the next week of December 1 - December 7. Just how cold is still to be determined, but the potential first freeze of the season across portions of North and Notheast Florida is a reasonable possiblity.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been pretty consistent with some cold weather for Florida early next week. Here is the coldest night:

[northjaxpro]

We had ideal radiational cooling conditions across most of the peninsula overnight and this morning. Temperatures in many areas bottomed out to near the dew point temps. It is currently 39 degrees here at the home station. There are some locales across inland North Florida which have dropped to the mid to upper 30s and some locales have some patchy frost as well.

It will be another beautiful late Autumn day across the area as sunshine prevails and temps will max out into the lower 70s here.

Beautiful weather will continue the next few days through Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with cool nights and pleasantly mild days. High temps on Turkey Day here will be in the lower to mid 70s!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

We're having a big outside party in Clearwater, FL (on the peninsula/not right on the beach) on Friday, Dec 6th at night. With the cooler weather embedded midweek, will there be time to warm up a little, or does it look like a reinforcement could head in by then? Really praying we don't see rain! It is a motorcycle/biker evening event. Any insights or forecasts??

[psyclone]

We're having a big outside party in Clearwater, FL (on the peninsula/not right on the beach) on Friday, Dec 6th at night. With the cooler weather embedded midweek, will there be time to warm up a little, or does it look like a reinforcement could head in by then? Really praying we don't see rain! It is a motorcycle/biker evening event. Any insights or forecasts??

At this point the odds favor colder than normal temps. It's a dry time of the year so those odds are on your side. WAG at this point...Dry (just playing the odds) and night temps in the 40's or 50's. Good firepit weather. Best of luck

[chaser1]

We're having a big outside party in Clearwater, FL (on the peninsula/not right on the beach) on Friday, Dec 6th at night. With the cooler weather embedded midweek, will there be time to warm up a little, or does it look like a reinforcement could head in by then? Really praying we don't see rain! It is a motorcycle/biker evening event. Any insights or forecasts??

At this point the odds favor colder than normal temps. It's a dry time of the year so those odds are on your side. WAG at this point...Dry (just playing the odds) and night temps in the 40's or 50's. Good firepit weather. Best of luck

Still only 24 hr.'s closer in, but pattern/long range really looking like psyclone has pegged it spot on. Not seeing the present pattern indicating any split jet steering flow, and no long range forecasts are at all hinting at any Southern flow cyclogenesis occurring over the Gulf or lower latitudes. Looks to be cool and generally very favorable Florida Chamber of Commerce weather over the course of the upcoming 10 days. Any precip around your party date will probably limited to a few sprinkles on the East coast but probably dry overall. In terms of timing between cold "peaks" and "valleys", I'd guess that by Dec. 6/7 most of Florida will likely be in the slightly warmer 'valley" and in-between re-enforcing cold intrusions. This far out I'd guess warm in the sun and mild in the shade days, with pleasantly mild to cool evenings in the 55 to 60 range for W. Central Florida at the time. The timing of fronts dropping down into Florida that far out could certainly change, but I'd be surprised if any fronts were to stall over Central Florida causing much risk of enhanced precip later in the forecast period. Worse case might be limited to a colder intrusion of colder air at that time but at 10 days out..... I wouldn't sweat it much.

[NDG]

I am here just very excited about the rainy pattern that California is in right now through at least the next 7-10 days, so much needed after a devastating fire season, you would think that the media would had been spreading this great news.

Meanwhile here in FL we have benefit from a slight -NAO pattern during the past few days or so with slightly below temps, enough for me to continue not turning my A/C on, but it could had been much colder had the PNA been positive.
TV Mets made the mistake 2 days ago of mentioning the possibility of much colder wx early next week as shown by the models when now they are trending with temps not any colder than what we have already seen, so they now stopped making a big deal about it.

One thing for sure that tourists will be enjoying our much warmer wx compared to the rest of the US including the SW US through the weekend.

[northjaxpro]

We're having a big outside party in Clearwater, FL (on the peninsula/not right on the beach) on Friday, Dec 6th at night. With the cooler weather embedded midweek, will there be time to warm up a little, or does it look like a reinforcement could head in by then? Really praying we don't see rain! It is a motorcycle/biker evening event. Any insights or forecasts??

At this point the odds favor colder than normal temps. It's a dry time of the year so those odds are on your side. WAG at this point...Dry (just playing the odds) and night temps in the 40's or 50's. Good firepit weather. Best of luck

Still only 24 hr.'s closer in, but pattern/long range really looking like psyclone has pegged it spot on. Not seeing the present pattern indicating any split jet steering flow, and no long range forecasts are at all hinting at any Southern flow cyclogenesis occurring over the Gulf or lower latitudes. Looks to be cool and generally very favorable Florida Chamber of Commerce weather over the course of the upcoming 10 days. Any precip around your party date will probably limited to a few sprinkles on the East coast but probably dry overall. In terms of timing between cold "peaks" and "valleys", I'd guess that by Dec. 6/7 most of Florida will likely be in the slightly warmer 'valley" and in-between re-enforcing cold intrusions. This far out I'd guess warm in the sun and mild in the shade days, with pleasantly mild to cool evenings in the 55 to 60 range for W. Central Florida at the time. The timing of fronts dropping down into Florida that far out could certainly change, but I'd be surprised if any fronts were to stall over Central Florida causing much risk of enhanced precip later in the forecast period. Worse case might be limited to a colder intrusion of colder air at that time but at 10 days out..... I wouldn't sweat it much.

Yep. Cool, continental northwesterly flow will be the rule into next week as the + PNA will be in effect going into the first week of December, bringing a cooler , dry pattern across the Eastern CONUS. It will be a continuation of fabulous early season winter weather across the region with below normal temps, relatively speaking for much of the region. We may see temps getting to near freezing across portions of North and Northeast Florida by Tuesday or Wednesday mornings of next week. Perfect weather for the holiday Christmas season!

We may see reinforcement of the colder air across the Eastern CONUS by Dec 8-10, as the models are hinting at this in the 10-day outlook.

[boca]

It looks like the NAO is going up by two standard deviations above normal after the first week of December I hope we don’t get back to 90 degrees again here in tropical South Florida (little sarcasm)

[psyclone]

I see plenty of happy, busy people out and about on Thanksgiving eve. No doubt the weather is contributing to that cheery disposition. What a terrific month November has turned out to be. December looks to continue that trend.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here in miami say other strong front coming down on monday so look like front coming down back to back bring cool to cold weather to south fl and rest state

[gatorcane]

I am here just very excited about the rainy pattern that California is in right now through at least the next 7-10 days, so much needed after a devastating fire season, you would think that the media would had been spreading this great news.

Meanwhile here in FL we have benefit from a slight -NAO pattern during the past few days or so with slightly below temps, enough for me to continue not turning my A/C on, but it could had been much colder had the PNA been positive.
TV Mets made the mistake 2 days ago of mentioning the possibility of much colder wx early next week as shown by the models when now they are trending with temps not any colder than what we have already seen, so they now stopped making a big deal about it.

One thing for sure that tourists will be enjoying our much warmer wx compared to the rest of the US including the SW US through the weekend.

Looks pretty chilly for Central Florida next week to me, could be some of the coldest air of the season. Though the air won’t be as cold as the models originally showed.

[psyclone]

We definitely have some chilly weather on the way up here with at least 3 days of maxes in the 60's and mins in the 40's with Tuesday's highs in the low 60's more than 10 degrees below normal. solid hoodie and jacket weather.

[AdamFirst]

Expecting mid 40s and breezy on Monday night here according to the NWS. Definitely layers weather for Floridians!