Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN OCT 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW 350 MILES NORTH OF
CULEBRA WILL MOVE INTO HAITI BY THURSDAY...AND BRING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MID WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED IN STREAMERS OVER PEAKS AND ISLANDS
TODAY AND BROUGHT MODEST AMOUNTS TO CANOVANAS...CAROLINA AND SAN
JUAN. SHOWERS ALSO FORMED IN BARRANQUITAS AND SPREAD INTO ARECIBO
WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS. A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE WAS
PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF IT AS WELL AS BEHIND
IT...KEEPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTERWARD...BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 32
WEST...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. SHARP DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE WAVE. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO WILL GENERATE OBSCD MTNS AND VCSH/VCTS AT
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ MAINLY 18Z-22Z. VFR CONT XCPT ISOLD TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WI PSBL MVFR FOR TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL NOW LOCATED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES WILL CAUSE
TEMPORARILY LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUT AT THIS TIME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 50 70 60 40
STT 79 88 78 89 / 70 70 70 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 PM AST SUN OCT 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF PR/USVI WILL DRIFT SW TOWARD
HISPANIOLA NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ERN
CARIB SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TONITE THRU MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF PR TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE TONIGHT
THRU MON NIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COULD LIMIT TSTM AREAL COVERAGE SOMEWHAT OVER PR
TOMORROW BUT BELIEVE DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OVERCOME MID LEVEL DRYNESS. GFS ALSO HINTS AT
POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN PR AND THE USVI MON
NIGHT WHICH COULD AFFECT FAR ERN PR AND USVI WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

LOW LEVEL DRYING IS FCST FROM EAST TO WEST AND REACH VIEQUES BY
12Z TUE. MODELS ALSO SHOW DOWNWARD H85 THETAE ADVECTION TUE WITH
STABLE SHOWALTER INDICES. STRONGLY BELIEVE TUE WILL END UP CLOUDY
WITH VERY LITTLE SHRA ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z. FAIR WX EXPECTED WED
WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX
OVERNIGHT. VCTS EXPECTED AFT 21/06Z AND 21/10Z AT TKPK AND
TNCM...RESPECTIVELY. SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO TIST AND TISX AFT
21/12Z...DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AROUND 21/18Z SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CTRL AND W INTERIOR OF PR...HENCE...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDS AT
TJSJ...TJMZ...TJBQ...TJPS ARE POSSIBLE. MOSTLY VFR CONDS AFT
22/12Z. VRBL WINDS OF 9 KT OR LESS THRU TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THRU TUE BUILDING 2-4 FT TUE NIGHT. SCT-NMRS
TSTMS THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 40 70 70 50
STT 79 88 78 89 / 60 90 90 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will be the dominant theme today as a Tropical Wave moves thru and combines with a trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST MON OCT 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...STATIONARY UPPER LOW 260 NM N OF SAN JUAN WILL START
MOVING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE REAR OF THE UPPER JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDER...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM CULEBRA/ST. THOMAS...AND SOUTH
OF ST. KITTS. GFS SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING THEN IT ALL SHIFTS WESTWARD AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
HISPANIOLA.

MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WAVE IS BRISKLY MOVING WEST BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS IT STILL ONLY REACHING 57W. GFS MOVES THIS AIR
INTO USVI ABOUT 06Z ON TUE. THIS BEGINS AS A WEDGE OF DRY AIR
WHICH DEEPENS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SURE TO SHUT DOWN NEARLY ALL
SHALLOW CONVECTION GOING ON BY EARLY TUE MORNING. CONVECTION OVER
PR BY TUE AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW THICK AND
PERSISTENT REMAINING HIGHER CLOUDS ARE...ATTM IT APPEARS THEY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM WHAT WESTERN PR
WOULD USUALLY SEE.

TWO VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE TOWARDS PR/USVI BY WED/THU.
ONE IS CAUSING CONVECTION NEAR 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W AND THE
OTHER IS FARTHER NORTH ABOUT 15N...MOST NOTICEABLE IN 700 MB
STREAMLINES/VORTICITY. GFS INDICATES THE MORE NORTHERN WAVE WOULD
PASS OVER PR/USVI MAINLY ON WED BUT WOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.
THE OTHER WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF PR EARLY THU
MORNING AND WOULD HAVE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF CONVECTION ON THU IS MUCH IN DOUBT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA. ESE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUST NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH TUE
EXCEPT BOTH HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. TRADE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE A LITTLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 60 20 20 10
STT 88 78 89 80 / 70 70 20 20

[msbee]

Good afternoon. We have had a rainy afternoon here and we just experienced a heavy thunderstorm. It seems to be clearing up now but we did have minor flooding on the roads.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF FAJARDO WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH.
A TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMEWHAT WEAKER THE FOLLOWING MONDAY
NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SET OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST FIRST...BUT MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEGAN
SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES...BUT SOON BEGAN FORMING OVER NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL ALL THE WHILE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SOME LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ONE
INCIDENT OF WIND DAMAGE IN MOCA WERE REPORTED. MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 22/06Z...BUT LEAVING ENOUGH OVER
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...REDUCING THE OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE. ANOTHER
WAVE COMES UP THROUGH THE BARBADOS TOMORROW NIGHT TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY MORNING...LIMITED MOISTURE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THAT DAY. A
SECOND WAVE FOLLOWING CLOSELY WILL BRING THE NECESSARY MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND...A
GOOD WAVE WILL COME OFF OF AFRICA TOMORROW AND MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TJMZ...TIST AND POSSIBLY ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 21/22Z...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA. ESE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUST NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN SOME EXPOSED WATERS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE TO 18 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 89 / 40 30 20 20
STT 79 89 80 90 / 70 20 20 20

[msbee]

St Maarten has had another heavy thunderstorm. My backyard weather gauge is showing almost 3 inches of rain has fallen this afternoon.
It is still thundering but in the distance and it is still raining lightly.
It looks like we could still get some more.
There are reports of roads flooding in low lying areas and where there is poor drainage.
Motorists should be extra careful on their way home tonight.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. In general,good weather will prevail in PR today with only the usual afternoon showers in the interior.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NOW MOVING
WEST NEAR 20N. IT WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO HELP GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONA PASSAGE TODAY WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BE PRIMARY REASON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PR
IN AFTERNOON. BUT DRY AIR IN THE 900-600 MB LAYER...AS SHOWN IN
THE 22Z TFFR SOUNDING...QUICKLY MOVING WEST IS CLEARLY OVERTAKING
THE EXISTING SHOWERS. IT FIRST WIPED OUT THOSE IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLIER TONIGHT AND IS NOW CAUSING THEM TO DIMINISH ON
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND PR. THE DRY AIR AND LESS
HIGHER CLOUDS IS REASON ENOUGH TO FORECAST SUFFICIENT HEATING OVER
WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND DECENT STEERING
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT TO A MINIMUM TODAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CAUSING SOME CONVECTION EAST OF TRINIDAD WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS WHEN IT
PASSES ON WED. AN EXPECTED TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
BE JUST SOUTH OF PR SO MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE IN THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANOTHER WAVE TO PASS OVER THE
ISLANDS LATE THU BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SO EXPECT TROPICAL
WAVES THIS WEEK TO BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND STEERING FLOW TO BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR DETERMINING CONVECTION.
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE OF NOTE HAS JUST LEFT AFRICAN COAST WHILE GFS
PUSHES IT JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI EARLY MON WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT AT JMZ/JBQ AND POSSIBLE JSJ
WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 22/17Z AND
22/21Z. SFC WINDS ESE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS OF 7 FT OR SO CONFIRMED BY BUOY 41040 ARE MOVING
WEST BUT BEING MUTED A LITTLE BY LESSER ANTILLES. SEAS ON LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH 6 FT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT BELIEVE
THEY WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF THAT LEVEL. TRADES TO REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 0 20 0
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN
ARECIBO...BUT THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. A VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF
DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM PASS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY. IN THE LONG TERM..AT THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 23/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some showers will move thru PR today but nothing widespread will occur as Tropical Wave moves south of the island.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SVRL TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIB OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN INVERTED V SHAPE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. 06Z LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMS THIS
WAVE WITH AN INVERTED V SHAPE NOW LOCATED OVR THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVERHEAD EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO BECOME VERY ACTIVE OVER THE CARIB SEA WITH CONVECTION
EXPANDING NWD AND REACHING PR LATER TODAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE LIKELY OVER CARIB COASTAL WATERS AND PR AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OVR PR AND ATLC WATERS. WAVE WILL
DEPART TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVER PR THU.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 50W AND WILL REACH THE ERN
CARIB SEA FRI. THIS WAVE IN CONTRAST TO THE FIRST WAVE WILL
ENCOUNTER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS OVR
THE ERN CARIB SEA AND IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MOST ACTIVE WX WILL
REMAIN SOUTH ALTHOUGH LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS COULD STILL
GENERATE CONSIDERABLE WX OVR LAND.

UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SEA MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF PR. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PR WILL REMAIN IN A SHARP GRADIENT WITH VERY ACTIVE WX OVR
THE CARIBBEAN AND VERY DRY STABLE AIR OVR THE ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR ALOFT WL KEEP TAF SITES VFR XCP POSBL MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA LATE TDY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TISX WHERE MOISTURE FM TROPICAL WV
BRUSHES BY. WL CONSIDER TEMPO FOR SHRA/TSRA IN 12Z TAFS. OTHW VFR
THRU WED. WIND SFC-FL150 E TO SE 10-20 KT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THRU TONITE BUILDING 3-5 FT LATE THU. TSTMS
OVR CARIB SEA MAY REQUIRE SMW`S DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 77 / 20 0 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT...TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
WEEKEND...ANOTHER AREA OF DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY...WHERE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT AT JMZ/JBQ AND
POSSIBLE JSJ WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS ESE
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
TROPICAL WAVE PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS...AS WINDS UP TO 21
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 76 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 40 40

[Macrocane]

A wetter than normal pattern is expected in Central America in the next few days, a northerly winds event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec but it is not going to affect Central America in significant way:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

AT 1500UTC...HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED AT 15.4N 103.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WHERE AT 50KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
996HPA. THE HURRICANE WAS MOVING TO 255 DEGREES AND AT 7KT. SEE NHC
WEBSITE FOR UPDATES.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 23/00UTC: SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE UNDER WET PATTERN DURING A FEW ADDITIONAL DAYS SINCE
SEVERAL PHENOMENA ARE OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME. A SYSTEM OF
INTEREST IS HURRICANE RAYMOND WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN GUERRERO OVER MORE THAN TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT IS FORCING ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GUERRERO. YET...AMOUNTS ARE RAPIDLY
DECREASING AS WINDS ARE DECREASING IN SPEED...AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OFFSHORE (SEE NHC WEBSITE). OTHER SYSTEM OF
GREAT INTEREST IS A NORTES EVENT AFFECTING NOW THE SOUTHERN BASIN
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY AREAS IN VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN
OAXACA. WINDS ARE REACHING SPEEDS OF 30-40KT ABOVE 925 HPA.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXTREME IN A REGION OF DEEP-LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CYCLE...WITH AMOUNTS
STARTING TO DECREASE ON DAY 03. THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHIAPAS/GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER A
WET PATTERN FIRST DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS
BECOMING ABSORBED IN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THEN DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. ON DAY 01...EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CAMPECHE REACHING 75-100MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 200-300MM IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ACROSS
GUATEMALA AND WESTERN YUCATAN EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON DAY
02 EXPECTING HEAVIEST STILL ON THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CAMPECHE WITH
AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-125MM. ACROSS WESTERN
YUCATAN EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON DAY 03...EXPECTING
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-125 IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM
NORTHERN HONDURAS INTO CHIAPAS/SOUTHERN YUCATAN.

CENTRAL AMERICA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT LOW-LEVELS...PRECIPITATION IS BEING
MODULATED BY WAVES IN THE TRADES (SEE BELOW). UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS
TO MEANDER OVER COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION THROUGH
THE CYCLE. EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BETWEEN COSTA
RICA AND EL SALVADOR/SOUTHEASTERN HONDURAS BUT ESPECIALLY
NICARAGUA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON DAYS 02 AND 03. AN
INCREASE IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF HONDURAS INTO DAY 03 AS
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
FROM COSTA RICA INTO EL SALVADOR/NORTHERN HONDURAS. EXPECTING A
GRADUAL INCREASE AND NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY TO
PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY ON DAY 03 BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS INTO GUATEMALA/BELIZE.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...PATTERN IS
GRADUALLY CHANGING AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND MID-UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS/MEANDERS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SEVERAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN MAIN ONE ARE SUSTAINING SURFACE
FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. FRONTAL AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTION IS TO INCREASE IN JAMAICA AS WELL.
FIRST...EXPECTING DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UNDER INFLUENCE
OF WEAKENING TUTT LOW THAT IS TO CENTER JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. AFTERWARDS...CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ARRIVING EASTERLY WAVE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON DAY 03. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA IN
JAMAICA REACHING 20-40MM UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. A NEW SURGE IN
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON DAY 03. OVER CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM MAXIMA OF 15-30MM
ON DAY 01 TO 20-40MM ON DAY 03.

IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION TO AFFECT HISPANIOLA WHILE PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY SAHARAN AIR MASS. EXPECTING
A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THE FRENCH ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLES ON DAY
02 AND PUERTO RICO/USVI ON DAYS 02-03 ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT
ZONE AHEAD OF TRADE WIND SURGE. ON DAY 02...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM OVER HISPANIOLA. ON DAY 03...AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE TO
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...EXPECTING A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY
INTO MID-CYCLE ASSOCIATED FIRST WITH ACTIVATING ITCZ AND THEN WITH
ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE. FURTHER WEST...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EASTERLY WAVE. AN SLIGHT ACTIVATION OF THE
PANAMANIAN LOW TOWARDS LATE CYCLE SUGGESTS A NEW INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA INTO DAY 03. ON DAY 01
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF COLOMBIA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON
DAY 02...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON DAY 03...AN ACTIVATION OF
THE ITCZ AND DEEP MOISTURE POOL WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN COLOMBIA...EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
TIER.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
47W 50W 53W 57W 60W 63W 66W 69W TW
66W 69W 72W 75W 79W 82W DISS EW
82W 85W 88W 91W 94W DISS TW

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED AT 47W. THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA ON DAY 02 BUT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 03...AS IT IS
TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.

EASTERLY WAVE AT 66W IS WELL DEFINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY AND JAMAICA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT
WILL ALSO MODULATE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 82W IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA....AND PREFRONTAL TROUGHS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE HAS A BETTER SIGNATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
15N...AND WILL CROSS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE CONTINUING
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
DA SILVA...CHN (BRASIL)
FEARON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR but an increase of showers is expected on Friday as a Tropical Wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONE FRI MORNING AND A SECOND ONE
SAT NIGHT. DEEP TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAINLY OVR THE MONA PASSAGE AND NW PR.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVR ERN PR AND USVI WITH NEXT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH AN EWD MOVING AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. VERY ACTIVE WX
SEEMS LIKELY FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF PR SAT
WITH IMPROVING WX OVR PR BUT ACTIVE OVR USVI...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT WITH INCLEMENT WX OVR ERN PR...USVI AND COASTAL WATERS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL AREA BECOMING UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS. RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN WED AS DEEP
POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TDY XCPT MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA S AND W PR WI FEW
OBSCD MTNS. WIND SFC-FL100 ESE 10-20 KT INCR 15-25 KT TONITE. WIND
FL100-200 E 5-15 KT THRU TDY/TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 78 / 10 30 30 0
STT 89 80 88 80 / 10 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST THU OCT 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SECONDS TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 50 WEST...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
NOT SIGNIFICANT PCPN WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON AS VAPOR WATERS IMAGES INDICATED A NARROW AREA OF
DRIER AIR FILTERED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS
SHORT-LIVED NARROW AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL REACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...INCREASING AGAIN THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING WEAK UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE ON
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 25/18Z-25/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP TO 6 FT THIS EVENING AND
WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 88 / 30 30 0 30
STT 80 88 79 89 / 50 50 20 30

[Macrocane]

The first cold surge of the season has reached Gulf of Tehuantepec but is not expected to affect Central America so there's no end in sight for the rainy season in the region:

THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS TYPICALLY OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER.
THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS
OF 10-14 FT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 15N95W TO 13.5N96W. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE.
AFTERWARDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 25 KT LATE EACH
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS COULD
REACH 40 KT EARLY FRI MORNING WHILE THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL KEEPS
THIS EVENT AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITH 35 KT. DECIDE TO INCREASE
WINDS TO 40 KT BY EARLY FRI MORNING TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT
WINDS ARE USUALLY GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 24/00UTC: WET PATTERN IS TO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF MEXICO DURING A FEW ADDITIONAL DAYS SINCE
SEVERAL PHENOMENA ARE OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME. TROPICAL STORM
RAYMOND IS NOW DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS LEADING TO A GRADUAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAVY
RAINS. A DIFFERENT STORY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A STRONG NORTES EVENT IS PERSISTING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 48 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ-NORTHERN OAXACA AND NORTHERN CHIAPAS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. TO THE EAST...VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS THE GULF OF CAMPECHE
INTO CHIAPAS WHILE DEEP MOISTURE POOL PERSISTS IN THE REGION. AND
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ON DAY 03 AS EASTERLY WAVE
ARRIVES. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 50-100MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 125-175MM OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN CHIAPAS. OVER
YUCATAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/GUATEMALA EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF
50-75 AND MAXIMA OF 100-125MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. IN YUCATAN AND
GULF OF HONDURAS EXPECTING MAXIMA INCREASING TO 40-80MM. ON DAY 03
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
OVER MOST OF VERACRUZ AS ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST DEVELOPS.
ACROSS YUCATAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS EXPECTING MAXIMA DECREASING TO
30-60MM.

CENTRAL AMERICA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. BROAD TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TUTT
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AT LOW-LEVELS...PRECIPITATION
IS BEING MODULATED BY WAVES IN THE TRADES (SEE BELOW). UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IS TO MEANDER OVER COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CYCLE...AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EXIT REGION
OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND BE CONTINUOUSLY ADVECTED
WESTWARD INTO THE CONTINENT BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN AREAS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF COSTA RICA. ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH ARRIVING
EASTERLY WAVE (SEE BELOW). ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ON
DAY 02 EXPECTING AMOUNTS DECREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM TO THE SOUTH OF HONDURAS INTO WESTERN PANAMA. A NEW
INCREASE IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
ON DAY 03...AND AMOUNTS ARE TO REACH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...WET PATTERN IS
ESTABLISHING PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL/FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER VENTILATION IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET. FURTHERMORE...A SHEAR LINE WILL INCREASE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. IT WILL START DEVELOPING BY 24-30 HRS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
CUBA TO EXTEND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND LIE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 48 HRS...TO START WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS ALSO TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
JAMAICA AND EVENTUALLY THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING LARGEST
AMOUNTS IN CUBA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS REACHING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF
20-45MM OVER JAMAICA-CAYMANS AND INTO CUBA. STRONGEST CONVECTION
IN THE BAHAMAS WILL BE GRADUALLY PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON
DAY 03 EXPECTING A SLIGHT DECREASE TO MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF
20-40MM.

IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EASTERLY WAVE. WEAKENING TUTT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODERATELY HIGH AFTERWARDS AS ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
CYCLE. OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TRADE WIND SURGE THAT IS
ARRIVING INTO BARBADOS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. THIS SURGE
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ISLANDS AND WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO/VI LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
FOLLOWS. THIS WAVE WILL ONCE AGAIN MODULATE THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO
ENHANCE ACTIVITY ON BARBADOS AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES ON DAYS 02 AND 03. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
ENHANCE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN INTO PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI ON DAY
03. ON DAY 01...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ON THE LESSER
ANTILLES...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON DAYS 02 AND 03
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION IS ACTIVATING OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND LATER IN PANAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING PANAMANIAN LOW AND PASSING EASTERLY WAVE.
ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. AN ACTIVATION ACROSS THE GUIANAS IS EXPECTED BY LATE
CYCLE. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING HEAVIEST IN WESTERN COLOMBIA REACHING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE TO
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON DAY 03. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALONG WESTERN COAST/ANDES INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
53W 55W 58W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W TW
72W 75W 78W 81W 84W 86W 88W 90W EW
88W 91W DISS TW

TROPICAL WAVE AT 53W WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER TODAY BUT
ESPECIALLY ON DAY 02. THE WAVE WILL THEN HELP TO TRANSPORT
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ON DAY 03.

EASTERLY WAVE AT 72W CONTINUES WESTWARD. NORTHERN TIER IS
INTERACTING WITH TUTT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA.
SOUTHERN TIER WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY 54-60 HRS
WHERE IT WILL SLOW DOWN. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 02 AND 03.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 88W IS RAPIDLY LOSING DEFINITION AS IT IS
BECOMING EMBEDDED INTO BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few afternoon showers are expected today in PR and during the weekend as two Tropical Waves move thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST FRI OCT 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER ONE SAT NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
BREAK DOWN WED AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
REACH TO NEAR 70W BY 12Z TODAY. MOISTURE SEEMS MORE THAN ADEQUATE
TODAY TO YIELD NMRS CONVECTION OVR NW PR BEFORE MUCH DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MOVES IN EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HAITI WILL MOVE EAST AND HELP TRIGGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE COULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH SCT/NMRS
CONVECTION OVR THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT AND NW PR
SUN AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE THEN ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA MON IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OVR THE TROP ATLC WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MON-MON NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH QUICK MOISTURE RECOVERY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WED AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
OVR HISPANIOLA BY THU MORNING INDUCING AN INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH
VARIES IN STRENGTH DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS TODAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS DUE TO PASSING
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORNING AND THEN EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
PR...WHICH MAY AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. ESE
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT. SCT/NMRS TSTMS THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 88 78 / 40 0 30 30
STT 83 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 30

[abajan]

It's a rainy and windy morning in Barbados. As a matter of fact, our airport has been getting storm force gusts



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[abajan]

The airport is now getting sustained storm force winds with gusts to 64 mph! What on earth??!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

That is impressive data there abajan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI OCT 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDS TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
NOT SIGNIFICANT PCPN WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON AS VAPOR WATERS IMAGES INDICATED A NARROW AREA OF
DRIER AIR FILTERED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS
SHORT-LIVED NARROW AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE EASTERN LATE SATURDAY...PASSING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE AGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PASSING SHRA ACROSS TJSJ...TISX AND TIST ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
25/23Z. EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ AFTER 26/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 0 30 30 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 20 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

The airport is now getting sustained storm force winds with gusts to 64 mph! What on earth??!



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Man that's insane !