Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NDG, I did see the 00Z EURO. It is a very interesting solution from EURO. It simply complicates this situation even the more.

I will be interested later today to see what the UKMET does with this system. EURO throws this monkey wrench at us with timing, but GFS has come back with bringing the storm back closer to the North and Central Florida region on Monday from last night's crazy 00Z which had the storm far offshore of the Carolinas.

[NDG]

This weekend could be a washout state wide across the FL peninsula. Last min Xmas shopping

Unlike the GFS if the latest Euro is correct it will be a mostly dry day for central, NE FL and most of S FL on Saturday but a very stormy Sunday for the whole State.

[northjaxpro]

This weekend could be a washout state wide across the FL peninsula. Last min Xmas shopping

Unlike the GFS if the latest Euro is correct it will be a mostly dry day for central, NE FL and most of S FL on Saturday but a very stormy Sunday for the whole State.

Yep. We will know more in the details with how this system will evolve with these model runs in the next couple of days hopefully.

[northjaxpro]

Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend region of North Florida and portions of South and SW Georgia for Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms, which I touched on this potential earlier this morning in my post.

[northjaxpro]

Currently, we are seeing development of strong line potentially severe storm cells firing just along and ahead of the cold front currently moving through the Florida Panhandle area and through Georgia and the Carolinas. Severe Thunderstorm warnings up already this hour , and a possible tornado being detected on radar in South Central Georgia. Radar composites over in the Big Bend region show possible severe storms approaching Apalachicola, and this area could impact the Tallahassee area with potential severe thunderstorms within the next hour.

Definitely will be monitoring this squall line as it progresses east and the frontral system sagging southeast as the afternoon progresses. The anticipation is that rain and potential storms will move into Northeast Florida by late this afternoon, around the time of the late afternoon to evening rush hour time.

Tornado Watch from SPC has been issued until 7 .p.m this evening , which included Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, including metro Jax. Busy afternoon and early evening for sure...

[northjaxpro]

Currently, we are seeing development of strong line potentially severe storm cells firing just along and ahead of the cold front currently moving through the Florida Panhandle area and through Georgia and the Carolinas. Severe Thunderstorm warnings up already from radar composites over in the Big Bend region approaching Apalachicola, and this area could impact the Tallahassee area with potential severe thunderstorms within the hour. Also, possible tornadic cell being detected on radar this hour between Tifton, GA and Vidalia, GA.

Definitely will be monitoring this squall line as it progresses east and the frontral system sagging southeast as the afternoon progresses. The anticipation is that rain and potential storms will move into Northeast Florida by late this afternnon, around the time of the late afternoon to evening rush hour time.

Tornado Watch from SPC has been issued until 7 p.m this evening , which included Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, including Metro Jax. Busy afternoon and early evening for sure...

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the severe weather squall line is advancing quickly southeast than initally anticipated. It is looking like strong to severe storms moving into Metro Jax area by 4:00. Currently an impressive squall line on the leading edge from southeast of Vidalia, GA southwest to just west of Valdosta, GA , extending to near Live Oak in the Suwanee River Valley. This line will be approaching Lake City within the next hour or so.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jacksonville Tweet 6 min ago

Strong storms along & south of the FL/GA state line are producing wind gusts up to 45 mph. These storms will move quickly NE along I-10 towards Lake City, McAlpin, & Columbia over the next 45 mins. When thunder roars, go indoors! #flwx #gawx

[northjaxpro]

Looking at radar, solid, impressive squall line stretching S/SWE through extreme SEGA into Northeast Florida to the GOM , pushing just through Lake City, and approaching MacClenny in Baker County and eventually will be moving into Western Duval/ Jax area by 4:30 - 5:00 p.m., right at the height of rush hour. Definitely could see strong downbursts in cells, and potential tornadic cells as this leading edge of the squall line pushes through the area into the early evening. Monitoring closely.

[AdamFirst]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1207044456962084864

[floridasun78]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1207044456962084864

my weatherman here in miami are talking about stormy weekend coming up as people do last Christmas shopping

[northjaxpro]

It turned unexpectedly to be quite busy for yours truly on yesterday with the strong and severe thunderstorms, which moved through the region. SPC issued only a Slight Risk yesterday morning for specifically the Big Bend region and portions of South Georgia, and we were initially only in an Marginal risk for strong storms. However, obviously the atmosphere was much more hostile here than the models initially analyzed. We ended up with a Tornado Watch across the Northeast Florida area and had a peak wind gust of 50 mph at the NWS Jax WFO, which set a record for highest peak wind gust ever for the month of December. There were numerous severe thunderstorm warnings issued. However, other than the strong wind gusts, which indeed were significant late yesterday, thankfully there were no confirmed tornado touchdown reports across the Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia region.

Now, cold air advection is currently fully in progress as the cold front is currently draped across South Florida. Clouds will clear out later today as that colder and drier air filters into the region. Currently the temp is 45.6 degrees here at my home station this hour. The region has brisk northwest winds of up to 20 mph , with some occasional gusts to 25 mph, will keep it a rather chilly day with max temps only forecast today in the mid - upper 50s across the North Florida area. The wind is forecast to become light across interior areas of the region, which should allow for radiational cooling after midnight up through sunrise. Temperatures are forecast to drop to or just below freezing in the colder, interior locales by sunrise tomorrow morning. It will once again be a close call for my home locale here in NW Jax to see if we touch freezing. I think it may get there again. Elsewhere in the region the mercury will be in the upper 30s to near 40 along the St. Johns River and out towards the coast. Temps will stay below normal through Friday, then gradually moderate to seasonal norms up to through Tuesday of next week. Central Florida looks to mainly be in the low- mid 40s most areas down there tomorrow morning, except for the Ocala and the Brooksville areas, which drain cold air in light wind conditions well and they will see low temps in the mid to upper 30s in those locales.

Now, the entire state will be impacted this weekend and possibly into early next week with this potent Low Pressure system. The models are in good agreement now that the Low Pressure system developing in the GOM this weekend will move across the Florida peninsula. There are still timing discrepencies with the GFS and EURO. The GFS wants to move the system out to the east a bit quicker than EURO, and that potentially could be very important because the quicker this system can get out of the way, the lesser the flood and heavy rainfall potential.

Right now, 3- 6 inches of rainfall is generally being forecast for this area, but there may be areas with potentially much heavier rainfall amounts. Also, we could be seeing wind and coastal impacts, especially the Florida East Coast, across the region this weekend, dependent upon just how intense this system becomes this weekend. There will be much more fine tuning to this situation as we are still 2-3 days before the onset of this event.

[northjaxpro]

The latest 12Z GFS run intensifies the Low Pressure area to 996 mb just off shore of Tampa on Sunday evening (00Z Monday )

[robbielyn]

The latest 12Z GFS run intensifies the Low Pressure area to 996 mb just off shore of Tampa on Sunday evening (00Z Monday )

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

So with 996mb would this be just a low or a subtropical storm? I guess more like a gulfeaster.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is starting to look more and more interesting. I've been watching the models closely since I'll be travelling to Tennessee pulling our fifth wheel. Up until recently I was more concerned with winter weather heading into North Georgia and TN. I never imagined I'd possibly have to deal with a 996MB low while trying to get out of Florida. Hoping to get a jump on it early enough on Saturday and beat it out of state before the real bad stuff arrives. I'd guess that if this was in August or September we'd be dealing with a possible hurricane.

SFT

[chaser1]

Curious set up that this stacked low might have late Saturday near or just west of Tampa. Recent GFS model runs seem to further deepen this low. The EURO has depicted the evolution of this mid level feature for days now. For the moment it looks like a few folks over some small area near where this low deepens and moves ashore this Saturday, could well experience some sustained tropical storm force winds from the event. More interestingly is the potential of some regions over Central or North Florida to receive over 6" of rain. Way over the top for this time of year. If forecasts verify I think that these rains will certainly cause some urban and river flooding havoc for area's along the St. John basin (if not also exacerbate other river basins further north or west). How many severe weather warning boxes might this storm system check off - High Surf Warning, Severe Storm Warning, Tornado Warning, High Wind Warning, Flood Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, Gale Warning........??? Perhaps I missed a couple. Hmmmm who knows, perhaps the NHC will even pull out of their hat a PTC warning for this one

[HurricaneBelle]

Wondering if this will be anything like the event in the overnight hours of December 25/26 2004 in the Tampa Bay area when a low moved across the Gulf and brought 40-60 MPH winds for a 2-3 hour period. This was the same system which famously brought a white Christmas to deep South Texas.

[northjaxpro]

Awaiting to see what the 18Z GFS model run will show us coming out shortly.

Yeah, if indeed we see a 996 mb system verify like what the 12Z GFS showed earlier, it would bring a wide set of problems statewide. In this instance beginning this weekend, this storm system.will be moving very slowly, which will bring the prospects of very heavy rain across much of the peninsula, especially North and Central Florida. There were earlier runs of the GFS showing a bullseye of nearly 12 inches of rain in parts of Northeast Florida
by Monday morning. Earlier today, the Jax NWS office is projecting generally 3-6 inches here in Northeast Florida, but this most definitely is subjected to change as we progress in time toward this event in a few days.
Also, a storm that intense would bring problems with potential storm and gale force winds on both coasts of Florida . Earlier, I focused on the Florida East Coast because of the increased onshore (northeasterly fetch ) flow into that area, which could bring about concerns of coastal flooding, and plus heavy rain further potentially agitating the situation. Also, pretty much what Chaser1 stated and mentioned in his previous post earlier, yes, with all those various types of advisories and warnings he pointed out, would be more than likely be needed for both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the peninsula.

All indications to this point all are showing a very strong and potent shortwave which is well stacked and strong at the mid and upper levels. Plus, it will be a slow moving system as well.
This tells me that this system likely will bring very strong diffluence over the region, meaning heavy rainfall potential up through Monday.

It indeed is an extremely interesting system we will have impacting the peninsula later this weekend and into potentially early next week.

[psyclone]

If you like cool....better go out and dance tonight. A warm Christmas and new year's is a virtual lock now (it's been tilting that way for awhile but now it's time to declare victory). Like others I am very intrigued by the weekend storm system which looks to pose heavy rain/svrwx risk and marine hazards...the most interesting of which may well end up coastal flooding especially north of Tampa bay through the big bend...a notorious spot where water stacks in the corner of the bathtub.

[northjaxpro]

OK Psyclone. You warm weather enthusiast lol. You are winning, for now. You know you are sounding and becoming more like that sarcastic Storm2K moderator and warm weather lover Wxman57. Are the two of you related?

We still have ample time left to see a pattern flip to colder for the Eastern CONUS, hopefully later in January.