Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A very interesting discussion about the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone in Caribbean for mid to late next week so stay tuned for more information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT OCT 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BREAK DOWN WED AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIB. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT SCT-NMRS CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND CARIB WATERS.
DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUN BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU MON. NEXT WAVE
WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY TUE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

THIS WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID NEXT WEEK
WHERE A BROAD LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM POSSIBLY EVEN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS ON TOP OF
IT. BROAD LOW/POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL EITHER MEANDER FOR
SVRL DAYS IN THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST ECMWF
OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD NEXT FRI-SAT PER LATEST GFES ALONG AN INVERTED
TROF FCST TO SET UP ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

SINCE YESTERDAY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW A SHOW A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVR THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER WHEN EXACTLY WILL DEVELOP AND WHEN IT
WILL LIFT NORTH. POSSIBLE TRACKS RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 62W AND 70W
WITH MOST OF THE CLUSTERING OVR THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER
26/16Z. VCTS POSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR TJBQ...TJMZ...TJSJ..AND
TISX. WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL 26/13Z THEN BCMG ESE AT 10-15KTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT ACROSS CARIB COASTAL WATERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING
RAISING SEAS TO 6 FT. SCT-NMRS TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 88 77 / 20 10 10 10
STT 83 79 88 79 / 20 10 10 20

[BZSTORM]

Good Morning everyone,
Sorry not had good internet and much time for the forum this season. But thought you all would like to know CCCCC/NOAA installed 2 CREWS (Coral Reef Early Warning System) buoys this year off coast of Belize. One at Calabash Caye (North) and the other at South Waters Caye (Near Dangriga). Although they don't have them set up yet to send data 24/7 yet, some data is entered every few days. Hopefully by next season they will be fully online. Anyway, they come with a std weather system, as they are mostly related to climate change study there is the water temp sensors, wind speed gauge, barometer, etc.
The Belize buoys are still on website as planned, but calabash was installed an operational as of Feb this year and South water caye was installed in September. There are many other buoys installed worldwide many fully online. Anyway thought this might interest those who like as much input as possible on water temps, etc as additional site to support that info.
Anyway here is the link to the site for the CREWS buoys - Belize buoys installed so far are CCBZ1 & SWBZ1 click on the link for each buoy then the link for "Environmental sensors monitoring site" to get what data is available.
http://ecoforecast.coral.noaa.gov/index ... site-index

[cycloneye]

Good Morning everyone,
Sorry not had good internet and much time for the forum this season. But thought you all would like to know CCCCC/NOAA installed 2 CREWS (Coral Reef Early Warning System) buoys this year off coast of Belize. One at Calabash Caye (North) and the other at South Waters Caye (Near Dangriga). Although they don't have them set up yet to send data 24/7 yet, some data is entered every few days. Hopefully by next season they will be fully online. Anyway, they come with a std weather system, as they are mostly related to climate change study there is the water temp sensors, wind speed gauge, barometer, etc.
The Belize buoys are still on website as planned, but calabash was installed an operational as of Feb this year and South water caye was installed in September. There are many other buoys installed worldwide many fully online. Anyway thought this might interest those who like as much input as possible on water temps, etc as additional site to support that info.
Anyway here is the link to the site for the CREWS buoys - Belize buoys installed so far are CCBZ1 & SWBZ1 click on the link for each buoy then the link for "Environmental sensors monitoring site" to get what data is available.
http://ecoforecast.coral.noaa.gov/index ... site-index

That is great news as is important to have more tools to analize what is going on as a system moves thru the area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST SAT OCT 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN BREAK DOWN AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 45W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...
USVI AND THE EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
WINDS WERE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

TROPICAL WAVE/EASTERLY DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SAINT CROIX AND THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT
TO RESULT IN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 45W MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE END OF WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE...AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA AND BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER TIME AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND JMZ/JBQ WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 26/23Z. WINDS FROM THE SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 87 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR with only a few showers. Things may turn rainy later this week so stay tuned for more information on that.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST SUN OCT 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IN CARRIBEAN SEA IS EXITING AREA
THROUGH MONA PASSAGE. REMAINING ISOLATED THUNDER IS IN THE AREA
OF 2 INCHES PLUS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THIS SHOULD EXIT MONA
PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE
PR/USVI TODAY...DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES OVER WESTERN PR BY 00Z/MON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST PR AFTER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER ALREADY ARRIVING THIS MORNING AND CONFIRMED
BY 22Z TFFR SOUNDING WILL LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF TURNING ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP NEAR 11N/47W...MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. HOWEVER THE WESTWARD
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF
THE WAVE...KEEPING IT WEAK AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS NOW.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT/TUE
AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE AGAIN PASSES BY IN THE CARIBBEAN.

STILL ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY GFS TO BE NEAR 6N/45W
AND CAUSING THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THIS.
GFS PUSHES THIS WAVE AND ITS VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF
PR/USVI ON FRI AND SAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE MAY BE DAYS
WHEN A MID TO HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST MAY BE PRESENT IN WHICH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...SO DID NOT
INCREASE THEM FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WHICH
WAS ALREADY IN GRIDS. BUT FOR NOW IT BEARS WATCHING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ TODAY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z WITH MVFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM AREA BUT 7 FOOT SEAS
ARE PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH IN SOUTH PART OF MONA PASSAGE TO
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING. CLOSEST BUOYS (42085...42059...
42060) HAVE SHOWN ONLY A DECREASE OF A 1/2 FOOT AT MOST...TO 5-6
FEET. BUT WINDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 0 0 20 30
STT 90 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

Congratulations to our friend HurricaneFan on his birthday today and have many many more.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SUN OCT 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...ERODING BY MID WEEK AS
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. WINDS WERE SOUTHEASTERLY AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
STILL EXPECT A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. RIDGE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE WAVE...
KEEPING IT WEAK AND LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2.0 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHARP DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PROMOTING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TIL 27/22Z IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ESE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 85 / 0 20 30 40
STT 79 89 79 88 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST SUN OCT 27 2013

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER LAND...A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE
27/12Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE
POPS NEAR SAINT CROIX DUE TO THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH HIGH OF 92 DEGREES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT TODAY ALSO
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA BY ONE DEGREE. SHOULD BE
COOLER TOMORROW THAN TODAY DUE TO MORE EASTERLY WINDS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave will increase the showers in PR starting tonight and lasting thru Tuesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER EAST OF THE REGION MERGE AND BECOME AMPLIFIED
WHILE DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TRADE WIND CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FEW SHOWERS BRUSHED PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS BUT SO FAR SHOWERS WERE ONLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NOTED SO FAR.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...EXPECT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND PASSING CLOUDS
WITH MAINLY BRIEF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

LATER TONIGHT THROUGH A LEAST TUESDAY EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED
WELL AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST LAYERED PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE AND REMAIN
AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY TUESDAY AND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOCAL AIR MASS.

BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A RAPID DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES
IS EXPECTED AFTER PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE BUT STILL
EXPECT SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ENHANCE MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BROAD
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A NORTHWARD MODULATION
OF DEEP ITCZ MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
IF IN FACT THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS... EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WITH AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT AND MODEL GUIDANCE
DO ADJUST WITH TIME...SO STAY TUNED AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AROUND 28/15Z.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF PR AFTER 28/15Z...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...AND TJMZ. APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY AS WELL AS MVFR
CIGS FOR TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 28/16Z. SFC WINDS EXPECTED LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BUT INCREASING AFTER 28/14Z TO 10-15KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE
CAUTION AND MONITOR THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 30 40 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 20 50 50 10

[HurricaneFan]

Isn't the Tropical Wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean now the same wave that is expected to stall in the SE Caribbean sea before possibly moving drifting northward on the weekend?

[cycloneye]

Isn't the Tropical Wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean now the same wave that is expected to stall in the SE Caribbean sea before possibly moving drifting northward on the weekend?

It looks like after the wave moves thru the Eastern Caribbean,a broad trough will form and stall and that is when we have to watch and see if it develops into a Tropical Cyclone or not. But regardless,plenty of rain will be with us by next weekend.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...
PERIODS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS EASTERN PR AND USVI
IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SHARP DECREASE IN PW VALUES
AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT...DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA...WEST AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO.

CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITION IN SHRA/TSRA. ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT TNCM AND TKPK AFTER
28/22Z...TIST AND TISX AFT 29/00Z AND TJSJ...TJPS... TJBQ AND
TJMZ AFT 29/12Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS BTWN 10-15KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 86 / 30 40 20 20
STT 82 88 81 88 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST MON OCT 28 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF THEM WERE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY. HOWEVER...NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED. LATER IN THE
EVENING...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN ARE STARTING TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL WATERS AND THE
USVI...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WEATHER FORECAST GRIDS BUT
THE WINDS WERE UPDATED.

WE STILL EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
EVEN THOUGH NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER PR AND THE
USVI SO FAR...THE LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE LEEWARDS CONTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

IN ADDITION...BUOY 42060 REPORTED VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS AND
SUSTAINED UP TO 27 KNOTS. THESE ARE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
SHOWERS...ESTIMATED EARLIER AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS...SO GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A rainy day is on tap for PR today as a Tropical Wave moves thru. Things may be very wet by next weekend when a broad trough develops so stay tuned for more details about that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUED TO ERODE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC.THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MERGES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS IT DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHWARDS AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY. SURGES OF MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE AXIS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...AND THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
ALSO OCCUR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INDUCED BY THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD STEER THE CONVECTION QUICKLY
WESTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. BRIEF SURFACE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST LAYERED
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES TODAY. IT IS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 1.70 INCHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ENHANCE EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND BULGE NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LIFT ADDITIONAL
ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND FAIRLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE POPS AND WX IN THE
LONG TERM AS THE PRESENT SCENARIO SHOULD ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS LIMIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS TIST... TISX... TKPK...TNCM AND TJSJ THRU
29/13Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 29/16Z ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDITIONS. LLVL
WINDS ENE 10-20 KT BCMG ESE AFT 29/10Z.SFC WND GUST TO NR 32 KNOTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 87 77 / 40 20 20 40
STT 88 78 88 78 / 60 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE
ABSORBING UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND NORTHWEST PR AS WELL
AS USVI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A SHARP DECREASE IN PW VALUES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING TROUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO/USVI...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT INDUCES A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO ERODE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK UNDER A BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH THAT SAID...AN OVERALL MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH SATURDAY
AS THE MOST ACTIVITY DAY. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT JBQ/JMZ AND
POSSIBLY JSJ TIL 29/23Z. AFT 29/23Z...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ACROSS LOCAL TAFS SITES AS THE WAVE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA.
MOSTLY EASTERLY SFC WINDS BTWN 10-15KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
5 FEET OR LESS. WINDS WILL REMAIN 19 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 20 20 40 40
STT 81 88 81 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Here is a flashback as time flies very fast when three years ago today Tropical Storm Tomas formed and was a formidable hurricane when it moved thru the Windward Islands.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 11.1N 57.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon fellow Caribbean and Central American friends. Storm2k is back after an outage of three days so we resume our postings here about the weather in the Caribbean and Central America.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
203 PM AST SAT NOV 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL DRIFT WEST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE ERN CARIB WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PW VALUES AS HIGH
AS 2.6 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUE KEEPING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY HIGH EVEN
AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. IT WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW FCST TO EVOLVE
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ON THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TURN WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION...STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND QUICK EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GREATLY
SUPPRESSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PROXIMITY OF A BROAD SFC TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN WITH PDS OF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA...VCSH FM
TIME TO TIME. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FM THE SSE AT AROUND 15 KTS...
WITH HIGHER GUST UP TO 25KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE THEN BUILD AGAIN
TO 8 FT THU IN NORTH SWELLS. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 86 / 40 60 10 40
STT 77 87 78 85 / 60 60 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Today will be another mainly rainy day in PR as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST SUN NOV 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A BROAD TROUGH WILL
FORM FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEAST. TRADE WINDS RESUME OVER
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EAST
OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN THE MONA CHANNEL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS INVADED PUERTO RICO FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
SPREAD RAIN HEAVY RAIN AND STREET FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE
DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE WATERS AROUND
THE AREA AND COULD PASS OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE FORECAST TODAY IS A COMBINATION OF INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS
THE PRNAM AND THE WRF MODELS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH CONVECTION
FORMING MAINLY OVER THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME TO NOT EXPECT THE
SITUATION TO ESCALATE INTO FLASH FLOODING AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT
ISSUED A WATCH. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS
MORE EASTERLY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AT LEAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
MODERATE MOISTURE EVEN UP TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING UP THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
THEREFORE...PDS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS SE BUT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SW...5 TO 20 KNOTS AND STRONGEST BELOW 5 KFT.
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 ARE RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET AND
SEAS TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA UP TO 7 FEET...BUT SEAS IN
THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AND WELL ORGANIZED SHOWER BANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 60 40 50 30
STT 86 76 87 77 / 80 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST SUN NOV 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WEST
INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY WED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SWD
OVR THE CNTRL ATLC MID TO LATE WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL ESTABLISH
ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TUE WITH
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING EACH DAY. ON
WED...AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEAST US WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVR THE ATLC EAST OF 60W. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER PR WITH SHARP DRYING
AND STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITING THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SW OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCT SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY THE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS THRU TONIGHT.
LLVL WILL CONTINUE FM THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KT BLO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WED THRU
FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 20 40 30 30
STT 76 87 77 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less rain is expected today in PR and VI but anyway,the usual afternoon showers will occur in interior and south parts of PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON NOV 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO FLORIDA
BY MID WEEK ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CAUSING THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RELAX.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF NEW YORK DISPLACING BOTH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH TO ITS EAST TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA WILL SHIFT WEST
AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ALSO INDUCE
TROUGHINESS FROM THE LOCAL AREA NORTHEAST AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY DISSIPATED OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING MOST OF THE RAIN
OVER LAND FOR SAINT CROIX. BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS NO RAIN WAS
FALLING OVER THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. THE SOUNDING FROM 04/00Z
SHOWED A VERY MOIST BUT SOMEWHAT STABLE PROFILE THAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH INCREASES IN THE AREA TODAY WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY AND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. THE MOISTURE SPREAD THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS
GRADUALLY DECREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DECREASING MOST RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS DOWN FROM 2.2
INCHES LAST NIGHT. HENCE WE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AT 700 MB WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES WITH PDS OF VCSH. BETWEEN 04/18Z AND 04/22Z PDS OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...RESULTING IN MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT AND VRBL...BCMG
MORE EASTERLY AFT 04/13Z BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS AND
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY. SEAS OF 7 FEET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 710.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 75 / 30 20 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 20 30 30