Florida Weather

[Ed Mahmoud]

Something you don't see every year in the middle of April.

GFS predicts 540 dm 1000-500 mb thickness line and 850 mb freezing isotherm over Northern Florida early next week.

[flwxwatcher]

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. West southwest wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70. North northwest wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. North northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North northwest wind between 11 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72.

This is what the afternoon NWS says for me next week. See bolded parts.
The lows are about 3 degrees warmer than what was predicted this morning. I hope that trend continues. I wouldn't mind a low of 50 - but no lower. My orchids are blooming!

Yes, it seems the trend has been for the lows to become higher the last day or 2. I hope this trend continues and I suspect it will.

[Scorpion]

We're supposed to get down to 43 Monday night.

[JonathanBelles]

They keep plunging the Monday Night numbers here. It was 61 the other night, 57 when I got up this morning, now its forecast for 52! let the numbers plummet.

[dizzyfish]

My latest forecast temps...

Lows

47 Sunday night
45 Monday night
45 Tuesday night

Highs

70 Sunday
66 Monday
66 Tuesday

[Cyclone1]

*looks at calender*

...

That's messed up.




...

[dizzyfish]

Updated - and it's still messed up.

Lows

Sunday 48
Monday 45
Tuesday 44

Highs

Sunday 69
Monday 66
Tuesday 68

[JonathanBelles]

Forecast high today...84
actual....86

NWS says 84 for tomorrow
News says 86...

[dizzyfish]

And back down again.....

Lows
Sunday night 47
Monday night 42
Tuesday night 42

[HURAKAN]

So far, 0.33 inches and it continues to rain steadily.

[HURAKAN]

So far, 0.55 inches.

Miami's April Rainfall Average: 3.36 inches

My House so far this month: 5.15 inches

Wet April!!! Fortunately.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I seriously doubt the lows drop that low- the GFS is likely
exaggerating and the models have an exaggeriting bias
with troughs as we know from watching the models during hurricane
season. Also, water temperatures are near 80 degrees along Central
Florida and South Florida. Combining high water temperatures with the
bias for cold by the models, I do not see a strong cold snap out of
this front. The forecast low in Saint Petersburg is around 52-56 Monday
through Wednesday but I think the coldest we will get is about 58.
Also, nature coast locations near the water may not drop below 50,
perhaps 40s north of Pasco County. Interior locations might see mid
40s if the dry air is so dry it allows big time radiational cooling.

[HURAKAN]

[dizzyfish]

Dang it! They dropped Monday night to 40*. I sure hope this forecast busts!

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dang it! They dropped Monday night to 40*. I sure hope this forecast busts!

Looking at the 80 degree water temp and the temps behind the front, I
don't think you will get colder than 50 in New Port Richey, and IMO Pinellas
County should stay above 53 with Saint Petersburg dropping to about
58. Unless this were a super arctic blast I don't see how it will get that cold.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm currently thinking 50-51 for here.

[dizzyfish]

I sure hope you all are right!
Remember I am not where it shows New Port Richey on the map - I am further inland and further north (almost Hudson).

[JonathanBelles]

Public Information Statement

000
NOUS42 KTBW 121430
PNSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST WITH
TEMPERATURES PREDICTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...WITH A
FEW SPOTS OVER INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING TO AROUND 40. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SIMILAR
TO A FEW YEARS AGO IN 2004. BELOW ARE TABLES OF THE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE NORMAL VALUES...FOR SITES AROUND THE
AREA FOR THE TWO MORNINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST...APRIL
15 AND 16.

Code: Select all

                                RECORD LOWS   NORMAL  RECORDS
LOCATION                           FOR APR 15    LOW     BEGAN

ARCADIA                  :ARCF1    35 IN 1963     57     1899
ARCHBOLD BIO STN         :ACHF1    34 IN 2004     53     1969
AVON PARK 2 W            :AVPF1    41 IN 1940     58     1901
BARTOW                   :BARF1    41 IN 1907     61     1892
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL    :BROF1    42 IN 1920     59     1892
                                       & 1907
BUSHNELL 2 E             :BSHF1    36 IN 1950     57     1948
CHIEFLAND 5 SE           :CHIF1    37 IN 1963     54     1956
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD    :FMY      49 IN 1963     62     1931
INVERNESS 3 SE           :INVF1    35 IN 1950     56     1948
LAKE WALES               :LWLF1    37 IN 1940     58     1935
LAKELAND LINDER FIELD    :LLDF1    45 IN 1950     60     1948
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK  :MKCF1    43 IN 2004     58     1956
PARRISH                  :PARF1    44 IN 2004     58     1957
PLANT CITY               :PLCF1    37 IN 1950     59     1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE        :PNTF1    51 IN 2006     60     1965
SARASOTA-BRADENTON       :SRQ      47 IN 1962     57     1948
ST LEO                   :STLF1    44 IN 1935     58     1895
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED   :SPG      48 IN 1950     64     1914
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL APT  :TPA      46 IN 1950     62     1890
TARPON SPRINGS           :TRPF1    41 IN 1907     60     1892
VENICE                   :VNCF1    49 IN 2004     61     1955
                                       & 1962
WAUCHULA 2 N             :WAUF1    36 IN 1950     57     1933
WEEKI WACHEE             :WEEF1    43 IN 2004     56     1969
WINTER HAVEN             :WHNF1    42 IN 1963     59     1941

----------------------------------------------------------------

                                  RECORD LOWS   NORMAL  RECORDS
LOCATION                           FOR APR 16    LOW     BEGAN

ARCADIA                  :ARCF1    39 IN 1963     57     1899
ARCHBOLD BIO STN         :ACHF1    38 IN 2004     53     1969
AVON PARK 2 W            :AVPF1    43 IN 1943     59     1901
BARTOW                   :BARF1    43 IN 1950     61     1892
BROOKSVILLE 5 NNE        :BROF1    43 IN 2007     59     1892
                                       & 1952,1950
BUSHNELL 2 E             :BSHF1    36 IN 1950     57     1948
CHIEFLAND 5 SE           :CHIF1    37 IN 1963     54     1956
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD    :FMY      44 IN 1950     63     1931
INVERNESS 3 SE           :INVF1    40 IN 2004     56     1948
                                       & 1950
LAKE WALES               :LWLF1    41 IN 1963     58     1935
                                       & 1950
LAKELAND LINDER FIELD    :LLDF1    46 IN 2007     60     1948
                                       & 1950
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK  :MKCF1    40 IN 1963     58     1956
PARRISH                  :PARF1    42 IN 2004     58     1957
PLANT CITY               :PLCF1    36 IN 1950     59     1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE        :PNTF1    49 IN 2004     60     1965
SARASOTA-BRADENTON       :SRQ      46 IN 1963     57     1948
ST LEO                   :STLF1    42 IN 1943     58     1895
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED   :SPG      49 IN 1952     65     1914
                                       & 1950
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL APT  :TPA      43 IN 1950     62     1890
TARPON SPRINGS           :TRPF1    42 IN 1950     61     1892
VENICE                   :VNCF1    47 IN 2007     61     1955
                                       & 1963
WAUCHULA 2 N             :WAUF1    38 IN 1950     57     1933
WEEKI WACHEE             :WEEF1    44 IN 2004     56     1969
WINTER HAVEN             :WHNF1    43 IN 1963     60     1941

$$

PRC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, looking at the models there may be some brief intense
cold. The NWS values seem understandable to me now.
I thought they were exaggerating but putting all the synoptics together
it makes sense