SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[KWT]

Yep indeed some severe thunderstorm warnings out right now.

000
WWUS54 KAMA 172328
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TXC117-205-341-359-375-381-172345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-080617T2345Z/
HARTLEY TX-MOORE TX-OLDHAM TX-POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-DEAF SMITH TX-
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR DEAF SMITH...WESTERN RANDALL...WESTERN POTTER...OLDHAM...
SOUTHWESTERN MOORE AND SOUTHERN HARTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR VEGA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. PEOPLE ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
OLDHAM COUNTY WILL WANT TO REMAIN ALERT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VEGA...
WILDORADO...
BOYS RANCH...
BUSHLAND...
SIMMS...
VALLEY DE ORO...
DAWN...
UMBARGER...
BUFFALO LAKE...
HEREFORD...
CHANNING...
BOOTLEG...
FOUR WAY...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3576 10303 3576 10196 3475 10191 3475 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 347DEG 22KT 3531 10241

$$

LG

[srainhoutx]

Yep indeed some severe thunderstorm warnings out right now.

000
WWUS54 KAMA 172328
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TXC117-205-341-359-375-381-172345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-080617T2345Z/
HARTLEY TX-MOORE TX-OLDHAM TX-POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-DEAF SMITH TX-
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR DEAF SMITH...WESTERN RANDALL...WESTERN POTTER...OLDHAM...
SOUTHWESTERN MOORE AND SOUTHERN HARTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR VEGA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. PEOPLE ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
OLDHAM COUNTY WILL WANT TO REMAIN ALERT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VEGA...
WILDORADO...
BOYS RANCH...
BUSHLAND...
SIMMS...
VALLEY DE ORO...
DAWN...
UMBARGER...
BUFFALO LAKE...
HEREFORD...
CHANNING...
BOOTLEG...
FOUR WAY...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3576 10303 3576 10196 3475 10191 3475 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 347DEG 22KT 3531 10241

$$

LG

The beginning of tomorrows MSC for SE TX/SW LA...

FXUS64 KHGX 172324
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT TAF PACKAGE AS MODELS NOT HANDLING THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS AND MESO FEATURES VERY WELL. THUNDER WILL AFFECT
IAH/HOU/SGR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN DISSIPATE. AM CONCERNED
THAT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL SCOOT THIS
WAY OVERNIGHT AND THE GFS BLOWS UP A SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE DUE TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE BY MID-EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ON WEDNESDAY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S. ABUNDANT
OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 43

[KWT]

How much rainfall does the GFS produce from that MCS it develops?
Could be pretty severe if that does occur.

000
WWUS54 KLUB 172337
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TXC069-369-180015-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-080618T0015Z/
PARMER TX-CASTRO TX-
636 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR CASTRO AND PARMER COUNTIES...

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLACK...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF FRIONA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BLACK...FRIONA...SUMMERFIELD...AND EASTER.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WHICH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE
TO PROPERTY OR PERSONAL INJURY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3432 10201 3431 10277 3475 10301 3474 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 320DEG 24KT 3466 10259

$$

[southerngale]

A good little soaking this afternoon. According to my personal rain gauge hanging on the fence, I got 1.2 inches of rain so far. It's still raining now, but the heavy stuff has passed and it's just light rain now.

A little windy, heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning... was quite enjoyable I must say.

[Yankeegirl]

Of course it blew up after it passed my area... the sun is still out here....

[CajunMama]

10% chance of rain?

[srainhoutx]

Look what's coming for tomorrow...WV Imagery...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=ir

AFD Update from HGX tonight...

FXUS64 KHGX 180132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
832 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE INTERACTION OF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM A SOUTHWARD MOVING
EAST TEXAS MCS WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HELPED TO GENERATE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS (AND SOME NOT SO BENEFICIAL
SEVERE WEATHER) ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
THE MCS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS STORMS WORK THEIR WAY INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND BELIEVE MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

IF SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD BE IN
FOR SOME MORE STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW. AN MCS ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WITH INCREASING POPS UP NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 42

[srainhoutx]

Good look from Lubbock Radar tonignt of the MCV taking shape...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[KatDaddy]

What a spectacular outflow boundary and associated thunderstorms this evening. We have needed the rain in Galveston County and finally got it. The next couple of days will bring the potential for more NW flow events.
Here are some photos and video to share







http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v338/ ... 170029.flv

http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v338/ ... 170031.flv

http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v338/ ... 170036.flv

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Wetter pattern shaping up similar to yesterday afternoon.

Big storms fired yesterday afternoon as a large outflow boundary from N TX MCS and the seabreeze collided along the N Beltway. Storms then moved SSW across metro Houston and matured over the Sugar Land area near sunset with their large back anvils hanging toward a clear northern sky resulting in some very impressive pictures of their mammatus clouds…see attached images taken by Russ Poppe in western Harris County. Such clouds usually result from severe thunderstorms as they reach 55,000 to 60,000 feet and their lofted hail begins to fall back to the ground from the top of the anvil..but evaporates in the process resulting in pouch-like or ball-like hanging clouds from the underside of the anvil. Lots of wind damage with the storms and their strong outflow boundaries downed trees and power lines across our northern counties. 3/4th of an inch hail was also reported in Sugar Land as the storm cores began to collapse.

Today:

Upper ridge has obviously shifted far enough west to allow NW flow aloft to bring MCS activity into our area. Next MCS is ongoing over N OK this hour and dropping south at around 40kts. Extrapolation has this cluster crossing the Red River by 1000am-noon and reaching our N counties by late afternoon right at peak heating. Numerous low level boundaries are in place and the seabreeze will also move inland along with incoming activity from the north to make for another stormy afternoon and evening. Storms may be able to build further west today as the ridge gives ground allowing more of our area to get wet…still feel the very dry far western and southwestern counties will not see much. Forecast soundings show an uncapped atmosphere and trigger temps. in the lower 90’s so expect local development along boundaries and the seabreeze by 200-300pm while outflow or OK MCS arrives into our northern counties around the same time. Soundings continue to portray a wind damage threat with high downburst and microburst potential as was seen yesterday.

Weather each of the following days will be highly dependent on what happens the day before as small meso scale features such as outflow boundaries will tend to drive the convective weather. IF we get hit hard today the air mass will take time to recover and models suggest…Thursday into Friday will be a lull period before additional MCS activity approaches late Friday. Also a weak boundary will backdoor in from the NE on Saturday and Saturday afternoon looks like it could be stormy as this combines with the seabreeze to result in good development and coverage across our central and upper coastal areas.

Ridge really does not gain a good foothold again for the next 5 days as height field weakness remains over the region allowing at least a chance of seabreeze action.

Given the ongoing drought conditions we will take what we can get.

[KWT]

Well there is still a certain amount of showers over NW Texas at the moment though none appear to be all that intensee they are still given some good rains I'd have thought.

[PTrackerLA]

Starting to doubt our rain chances today. They were recently raised to 50% but the MCS looks to be drying up now and there's hardly a cloud in the sky. Don't see much of an outflow boundary on the visible satellite either, guess we'll see how fast things can change.

[jasons2k]

yeah, i think our best chances in houston for today seem to be what we can get going locally (heating and/or seabreeze)

[jasons2k]

What the heck -- all these promises of rain - we get up to a steamy 98 degrees at the airport - and not a single blip on the radar??? Ugh! Looking out the window there is still some hope with TCU going up, but something better materialize fast.

[jasons2k]

Lucky Sugar Land area - they get dumped-on two nights in a row. I sure wish some would come this way...

[southerngale]

The radar finally started popping, but I don't think there's as much as rain as was predicted. My weather alert just went off, so I came to check radar. The storm mentioned below is headed in this general direction, but it's not real big, so don't know if it will pass over me or not.

As of now, there's a pretty good chance of rain for the next several days, so hopefully everyone who wants some, will get some.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-190130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0106.080619T0049Z-080619T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
749 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KOUNTZE...OR NEAR WILDWOOD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
14 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KOUNTZE BY 825 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3039 9418 3026 9440 3051 9453 3052 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 329DEG 12KT 3048 9440

[srainhoutx]

Tomorrow looks a bit better for wider coverage with this upper pattern. We shall see.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=wv

[Ptarmigan]

Had a nice thunderstorm north of here and it is fizzling out. I want RAIN!

[srainhoutx]

Looking better concerning wider coverage today through Saturday. As HGX stated in morning AFD, trajectory looking better for SE TX and a stalled frontal boundry as well... snipet...

FXUS64 KHGX 190951
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MCS TRAJECTORY HAS BEEN MORE AND MORE WESTWARD AND THIS FEEDS INTO
THE THINKING THAT STEERING CURRENTS ARE BECOMING MORE LONGITUDINAL
IN TIME IN COMBINATION WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DESERT SOUTHWEST-
CENTERED 5H RIDGE. THUS...CONTINUED LEEWARD ROCKY MCS DEVELOPMENT
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING CLOSER TO SE TX...AS THEY RIDE
AROUND THE WEAKER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A
QUICK GLANCE AT 08Z SFC OBS SHOWS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LAYING
AROUND EASTERN TEXAS...LEFTOVERS FROM Y`DAY EVENING`S CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONE CONVECTION WITH GOES SOUNDER PWATS STILL AVERAGING
AREAWIDE 1.7" VALUES. AS MENTIONED 24 HOURS AGO...CAN`T SEE ANY
REASON TO GO AGAINST AN ANALOG FORECAST PER LITTLE CHANGE IN
SYNOPTIC WITH PLENTY OF MESOSCALE LAND MINES (A.K.A. RESIDUAL
MACRO/MESO BOUNDARIES) WITHIN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS.

CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY BE DETERMINED (BOTH SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY) BY THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUS...INCREASED PM POPS BASED UPON THIS FEATURE. WHETHER
NORTHERN MCS`S HANG TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA SEEMS
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DEVELOPING TOO FAR
NORTH...REACHING THEIR PEAK INTENSITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY PER BEST CLOUD TOP COOLING...TO MAINTAIN
THIS STRENGTH TO THE COAST. LEADING SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD POOL AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THESE ENTITIES WILL WAFE INTO THE CWA
AND...DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF EVENTS...WILL INTERACT WITH
OUR LOCAL BREEZES DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL PROVIDE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THU-FRI CONVECTION.

LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NORTHEASTERN COOL FRONT BOUNDARY`S
SOUTHERN TAIL DRAGGING INTO EASTERN TEXAS HAS INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR EASTERN AND NEAR-COASTAL POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TWO LARGE
FEATURES ARE MODELED TO HEIGHTEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON WEEKEND
SHWRS/TS...5H EASTERN TROF BUILDING BACK OVER LA INTO EASTERN TX AND
A SOUTHERN GOM INVERTED TROF. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE OUR FA IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE
LOW...ESP. IF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO FORM ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEEKEND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY COOLER (NEAR 90 F VERSUS NEAR 100 F) AS HEIGHT THICKNESS
VALUES LOWER IN THE LOWER 570 DAM`S...A MORE DRIER/COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS FILTERS INTO REGION...AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER/HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE FACTOR INTO IT ALL.

Current Radar View...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[jasons2k]

Yes, I think today will be our day. Outflow looks great on Central TX Radar and racing this way