Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE MAY 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN NEXT SVRL DAYS FORMING A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI MORNING.
LOW WILL FILL AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN AS TROF OVR THE SW ATLC
DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE 0-6KM AVG WINDS
WITH STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON WED FROM THE SSW
FAVORING CONVECTION OVR NORTHEAST PR WED AND ERN PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND USVI THU AND SRN PR ON FRI. IT APPEARS THU WILL BE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH NORTHEAST PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI LIKELY
TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

SPAGHETTI PLOT TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LESS SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW PUTTING THE LOW NORTH OF
PR FRI AND PUSHING THE TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT SO THE
ECWMF SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR A LIKELY SCENARIO NOW. BASED ON THIS...
THINK THE ODDS ARE HIGHER OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE WX WITH THIS
UPPER LOW THAN FLOODING RAINS AS 500 AND 400 MB TEMPS WILL BE VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALSO...MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 2 INCH ALTHOUGH SLOW
STORM MOTION SUGGESTS GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
T-STORMS.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION SUN WITH WX
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SHWRS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF PR COULD BRING SOME VCSH NEAR TJBQ...TJSJ...TJMZ...TJPS UNTIL
06/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT BY FRI. T-STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WED-SAT WITH FREQ LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 72 84 / 10 50 50 70
STT 77 87 76 83 / 10 10 30 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is in the forecast for the next couple of days for PR and adjacent islands as a trough moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST WED MAY 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY. A CUT-OFF
LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
TO JUST NORTH OF VIEQUES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND JOIN THE GENERAL FLOW FROM THE WEST.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL FORM
A LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT THAT SETTLES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND THEN FADES AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK.

A VERY WEAK LOW NORTH OF AGUADILLA AT 20 DEGREES NORTH WILL MOVE
WEST...DEFORMING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND CONTINUE EASTWARD
ASSISTING THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW GENERATED FROM
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE
ENDING TUESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY PUSH
THROUGH ON THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MARK THE BROAD
BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ALONG 20
NORTH AND THEN CURVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

ACTUALLY THE REALITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLICATED. THE MIMIC LOOP
SHOWED A VERY WEAK LOW IN THE BAND OF MOISTURE DIRECTLY NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO THAT WAS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THIS WILL MOVE WEST
TODAY. A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TODAY
FROM HISPANIOLA AND BRING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT JET WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...BUT
THE CUT-OFF LOW SET TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BRANCH OF
THE JET BACK OVER THE ISLANDS. CURRENTLY DIVERGENCE PATTERNS ALOFT
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHEN CONVECTION
AND LOCAL HEATING IS THE BEST. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL PULL SOME OF
THE COOLER AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE AREA AND CURRENT
FORECASTS SHOW MINUS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MB BY FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THIS REPRESENTS A CLIMATOLOGICAL
EXTREME FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. LAPSE RATES ARE LESS EXTREME BUT
STILL AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. UNDER
ORDINARY CONDITIONS THIS WOULD BRING VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 850-700 MB...FLOW ALOFT IS NOT SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE SOLAR HEATING AT THE
SURFACE. ALSO WHILE LIFTED INDICES DO REACH ALMOST MINUS 7 ON
SEVERAL DAYS...THEY ARE CREATED USING SURFACE VALUES. CONVECTIVE
ENERGY ABOVE THE LFC IS MUCH LOWER WHEN AIR IS RAISED FROM 950 MB
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HINDER STRONG THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY TODAY.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OUT OF THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALSO IN THE
BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE MOISTURE AT AROUND 700 MB OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THEN...AS THE GFS INDICATES...THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THEN PUERTO RICO...PULLING THE MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
INTO ITS CENTER OVER PUERTO RICO AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN OF AIR ABOVE US
IS GENERALLY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY 35 PERCENT OR LESS FROM ABOUT
750 MB TO ABOVE 200 MB. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL FORM...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO BETTER SURFACE
HEATING THAT DAY. THE MOISTURE IN THE TAIL OF THE LOW LEFT OVER
FROM THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCED
BY THE STRONG DIVERGENCE PATTERNS OF THE JET THAT PASSED OVER THE
ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD END THE PERIOD OF
DROUGHT THE AREA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING.

THIS SCENARIO...WHILE MUCH WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK...AND
MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE...SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING NEAR
SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS OFFICIALLY DEFINED AS WINDS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH AND OR HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...NEVERTHELESS INCREASED
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING...PRODUCING URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF VCSH ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN
AFTER 07/15Z CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PR AND BY 07/18Z
SHWRS WILL MOVE AND AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ...WITH ISOLD TSRA UNTIL
07/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CAUSING SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS TRANQUIL TODAY.
INCREASING WINDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS. MARINERS WILL NOTE
INCREASING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 74 / 50 50 70 60
STT 86 75 86 74 / 20 40 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED MAY 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF PR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS DEEP LAYER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY AS DISSIPATES.
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE WEST.
IR/VIS SATELITTE IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...A FEW PERTURBATIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE TRADE WINDS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS INCREASING THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING COLD AIR AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL FORMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THEN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY COLD AT MINUS
11C-12C...LEADING TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PR. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND MOVING VERY LITTLE.
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES XCPT USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS
THRU SUNSET. TSTMS MORE LIKELY EARLY TOMORROW AT JSJ AND IST AND HAVE
INCLUDED A FM GROUP WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH -RA AND VCTS. VCTS
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-3 FEET BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY. CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
LOCALLY WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 74 84 / 40 70 70 70
STT 75 85 73 83 / 40 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A rainy day is expected today in most of PR and in the VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST THU MAY 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND A CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM TODAY AND DROP INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. THE SUB
TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW WILL CUT-OFF NORTH OF THE AREA AND SINK
SOUTH OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC CAUSING THE
LOW TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...JOINING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WILL BREAK UP HELPING TO FEED AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HELPING TO INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FORM ON SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTED TO THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE SEEN
NEAR SAINT CROIX DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ONLY ABOUT 0.05 INCHES
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN FREDERIKSTED. RAINFALL SINCE 6 PM AST AT
SAN JUAN WAS 0.63 INCHES. ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN SAINT THOMAS LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES FELL IN
CHARLOTTE AMALIE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GENERAL TROUGHINESS AT BOTH UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT FORMING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IN A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...ACROSS OR JUST NORTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX AND OUT THROUGH THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE AT 08/18Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LITTLE OR NO
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA BEGINNING MID-MORNING AND
RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY IN SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM YESTERDAY.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...OR
MANY YEARS FOR THAT MATTER...WILL BE PUSHING OVER THE AREA AT MID
LEVELS AND COOLING THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL DECREASE STABILITY
ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SMALL HAIL OVER PUERTO RICO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AND LIGHTNING FREQUENCY WILL INCREASE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND THE JET STREAM AROUND IT CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THE FOCUS OF
THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COUPLE WITH
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND THAN ON WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVEN AS THE MID LEVELS WARM UP AND THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. THE JET-STREAM AT 250 MB RE-
INTENSIFIES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE VENTILATION OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED DURING MORNING HOURS. THEN BY 08/15Z CHANCE
OF VCSH FOLLOW BY VCTS AND TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR TJSJ...USVI ISLANDS...TNCM AND TKPK. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING HOURS AND TONIGHT. WINDS
BLO FL100 MAINLY E 5-10 KT INCR 10-15 KT LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE NOW THROUGH FRIDAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND REACH UP TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 84 74 / 70 70 70 60
STT 84 77 83 75 / 80 80 80 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU MAY 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BECOMING A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF PR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MESO-SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SAN JUAN METRO
AREA AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN
MEASURED IN FEW AREAS OF SAN JUAN AND CAROLINA. OTHER AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH PUERTO RICO RECEIVED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BASICALLY DEEP
CONVECTION COULD FORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONSECUENTLY...A FEW PERTURBATIONS AT LOW LEVELS WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THESE
PERTURBATIONS PULL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT TODAY...MOIST AIR AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS HAVE LIMITED THE HAIL FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AT MID-LEVEL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SMALL HAIL FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW LINGERS UNTIL SUNDAY. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. UNTIL AT LEAST 08/22Z...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR TJSJ AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-3 FEET BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET ON FRIDAY. CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 86 / 70 70 60 60
STT 74 85 74 84 / 80 80 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI MAY 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH
AND THROUGH THE MONA CHANNEL BY SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK JET WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT UPPER LEVELS. A
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE WEATHER
WILL IMPROVE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL JOIN
ANOTHER HIGH FROM EASTERN CANADA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGHINESS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND PASS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW
MAY FORM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY FROM THE SAME TROUGH.
LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND REMAIN SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER MOST
OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND ITS SHADOW
IN THE CARIBBEAN IN THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS EXCEEDED 35 KFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES AT UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE AREA WITH
-11 TO -12 CELSIUS DEGREES EXPECTED AT 500 MB BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BETWEEN
850 MB AND 700 MB...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS AND BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING THE LIFTED INDEX TO DECREASE TO -6.7 THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO -7.0 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE 30 KFT WILL DEVELOP A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE
MONA CHANNEL AND WINDS TURN TO WEST SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 45 AND 55
KNOTS. THIS WILL MAKE TODAY AND SATURDAY QUITE UNSTABLE. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE IDEAL FOR ICE FORMATION WHICH WILL
ENHANCE BOTH RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND LIGHTNING FREQUENCY. WINDS
HAVE INCREASED AND WILL SET UP VERY LOCALIZED LINES OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL CAUSE MANY AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A FEW AREAS OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. SO FAR MOST
RIVERS HAVE REMAINED RESPONDED ONLY WEAKLY DUE TO THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS COULD
BEGIN TO GENERATE HIGHER FLOWS WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSE RAINFALL
IN ONE OR TWO RIVER BASINS. ALTHOUGH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED
AS TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD
MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT EAST AND THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST OF PUERTO RICO ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
TAPERING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS LINGERING IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THAT TIME. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGH
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE
GENERATED BY THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BEYOND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND EVEN LCL IFR IN VERY HEAVY TSRA...WILL SPREAD TO
TJBQ/TJMZ AND TJPS AFT 09/15Z AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW WINDS BLO FL100 FROM THE ENE AT 10-17 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MUCH MORE FREQUENT LIGHTING IN TSRA THAN USUAL DUE TO A
COLD POOL OF AIR IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE CHOPPY
IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH WIND WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND WAVE PERIODS
OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
EXPOSED WATERS...AND SMALLER BOATS WOULD BE WELL ADVISED TO REMAIN
ONLY IN PROTECTED WATERS IF THEY MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL DUE TO
SEAS AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 73 / 80 60 90 90
STT 84 73 84 73 / 80 60 80 80

[HurricaneFan]

When the forecast mention Strong Thunder Storms and Heavy Rain on Sunday in the Far Eastern Forecast Area on Sunday,is it possible for that Weather to Reach the Northern Leeward Islands?

[Jimsot]

I think that will be the case. Our best chance for rain is basically the entire weekend. This looks to be a widespread event. St. Martin appeared to get heavy showers yesterday evening while here at Sandy Hill Bay we got just .07 inches.

[msbee]

Good morning
St Maarten had heavy rain yesterday into the night. My rain gauge measured a little over 2 inches.
It is overcast this morning but no significant rain so far.
Meteo.Fr still has us under yellow vigilance, meaning chance of heavy rains and thunderstorms.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

St. Maarten Dutch Met Office states "Today through Saturday: Cloudy to overcast with scattered showers some of which may be heavy and a chance of thunder."

http://www.meteosxm.com/weather/forecast/

Regards to all
Barbara

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI MAY 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT ON MONDAY...CAUSING
INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE USVI...WITH SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW PR.
THIS WAS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTH BUT THE WINDS
WERE FAIRLY STRONG...INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OVER PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...TAKING THE HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY ON.


&&

.AVIATION...OASSING SHRA EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TIST/TISX WHEN BRIEF PASSING SHRA PASSES. SCT/NMRS SHRA ISOLD
TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AFTER 10/10Z. VCSH/VCTS WRITTEN ON
TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 6 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 15-18 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 73 / 40 50 60 90
STT 84 75 84 74 / 60 60 60 80

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A rainy day is on tap for the NE Caribbean islands today as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST SAT MAY 10 2014

.UPDATE...ZONES HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM AST SAT MAY 10 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS....A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE MONA CHANNEL AND THEN LIFT OUT OVER PUERTO RICO
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN WEAKLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEN A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
FORMED WEAKLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE SATURDAY AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WATERS EAST OF A
NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH CAGUAS. AFTER STRONG WINDS AT LOWER
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE YESTERDAY PREVENTED MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY...THE GFS IS TRYING TO
LOWER THE WINDS SOMEWHAT TODAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
BACK. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL IS NOW AT ITS MAXIMUM OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT -12 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MB...WHICH IS AN
EXTREME VALUE FOR SAN JUAN. NEVERTHELESS WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR SUCH COLD MID LEVELS...IN PART
BECAUSE LOWER LEVELS ARE ALSO UNSEASONABLY COOL AND THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO KEEP IT THAT WAY FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE FACT THAT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED...HOWEVER...IS A GOOD
SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOW MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS IS ALSO FORECASTING BETTER VERTICAL MOTION ON
SUNDAY EVEN IF MOISTURE IS NOT ANY BETTER...AND WITH THE COLD POOL
AT MID LEVELS MOVING VERY LITTLE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW...PERHAPS ENHANCED AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK TO CONTINUE THE WET WEATHER. FIRST REAL DRYING IS NOW SHOWN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE VERY LONG OUTLOOK THIS DRIER AIR MAY
ONLY LAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA AND MODELS RAMP UP MOISTURE AGAIN THE FOLLOWING
MONDAY.

RETURNING TO THE NEAR-TERM...THE NAM5...WHICH DID RATHER WELL WITH
THE OVERALL POSITIONING OF THE CONVECTIVE AREAS YESTERDAY IS AGAIN
FORECASTING CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO AND THIS SEEM VERY REASONABLE. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL.

HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO IS STARTING TO
BECOME SATURATED. RIVER RESPONSES ARE QUICKENING AND LAST NIGHT`S
HEAVY SHOWER BROUGHT ONE TRIBUTARY OF THE RIO ESPIRITU SANTO TO
WITHIN HALF A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. A SIMILAR EVENT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MAY PROVOKE MINOR FLOODING THERE. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
LIKELY.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ DUE TO
SHRA THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFT 10/17Z AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJPS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AREA-WIDE. NE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SEAS ARE GRADUALLY RESPONDING TO THE SOMEWHAT INCREASED
WINDS AND A NUMBER OF AREAS WILL HAVE 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. MARINERS
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE
A LITTLE NEXT WEEK..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 73 / 90 90 90 50
STT 84 77 85 78 / 70 60 80 60

[Gustywind]

Note that Guadeloupe and Martinica are in yellow alert too since yesterday for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest weather forecast from Meteo-France Guadeloupe.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (french version).


Level of vigilance: yellow
Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms
Start of event: current
End of event estimated: Sunday, May 11, 2014 at 06 AM.

Current situation:
A disturbed area moist and unstable stagnates on half now North of the Antillean arc.
Thunderstorm cells are observed on the nearby Atlantic, off the coast of La Desirade and Marie-
Galante, as well as Caribbean, South-West of Basse-Terre. They threaten particularly our archipelago.

Forecasts:
The stormy risk persists in this day of Saturday and until the next night.
Rain is manifest and can become selectively more intense in accompanied by thunder.
From strong accumulations of water are to fear very locally.

Observed data: Overlapping of rain recorded that night:
La Désirade: 25.3 mm between 21 and 3 hours.

Estimated totals (blade of water radar) on 12 h:
80-100 mm on the peaks of the Basse-Terre (at the level of the Matéliane).
30 to 50 mm on the heights of Petit-Bourg, boiling and in the vicinity of Ste-Rose.
20 to 30 mm la Desirade and Marie-Galante
10-20 mm in Grande Terre.

Next newsletter: Saturday, may 10, 2014 at 17 hours local time.

Individual behaviour measures recommended by prefecture.

[Gustywind]

Hope that our friends in the Leewards Islands are ok. Very numerous lightning were making the show yesterday night with thunder louding. Nice rain is falling here too.

Msbee what's the latest in St Marteen? Hop you're safe and dry, enjoying the rain after the severe drought...

[Gustywind]

Weather conditions are deteriorating in my area. Rain is back as the thunder and the lightning now. No mention of muslides, floods or damages for the moment . If i've more i will keep your informed. We continue to monitor carefully the situation if anything happens.

Regards.

Gustywind

[msbee]

Good morning everyone
Hi Gusty
St. Maarten continues with its third day of cloudy overcast skies. Other than over 2 inches of rain on Thursday we have had no additional significant rain.
I see Meteo.Fr still has us on yellow alert though.
Cloudy skies with scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms are still forecast by out local Met Office.

Looking a this radar I see most of the convection right now has moved south and east of us.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

But there is also still a lot of convection west of us over towards the Virgin Islands
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Gustywind]

Good morning everyone
Hi Gusty
St. Maarten continues with its third day of cloudy overcast skies. Other than over 2 inches of rain on Thursday we have had no additional significant rain.
I see Meteo.Fr still has us on yellow alert though.
Cloudy skies with scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms are still forecast by out local Met Office.

Looking a this radar I see most of the convection right now has moved south and east of us.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

But there is also still a lot of convection west of us over towards the Virgin Islands
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Hi Barbara, thanks for this report . Glad to see you there You're right, looks like this juicy convection is drifting in our direction, sparing you temporilly, but keep an eye on that, we never know.

[Gustywind]

We have a lull since one hour in Guadeloupe. Rain have stopped but sky stays grey and overcast. Let's see what happens during the next couple of hours.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain has fallen mainly in the north and east parts of the island and by what the radar shows,more is coming. So far no big flooding has occurred but if this continues for a few more hours then things will get complicated.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SAT MAY 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CAUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS PR
AND THE USVI. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. MAINLY THE USVI AND NORTH AND EASTERN PR.
SEVERAL RIVERS IN EASTERN PR WENT OVER FLOOD STAGE AND NUMEROUS
ROADS WERE COMPLETELY IMPASSABLE. THIS HEAVY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVING SAID THIS...THE USVI MAY REMAIN UNDER CONSTANT
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ON MONDAY...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE STABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...JUST NOT AS NUMEROUS AS THE ONES OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE USVI FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF MOMENTS OF IFR. THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN PR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL
PROBABLY 11/16Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO ENE
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SE BY 11/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOILS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH...AND EASTERN PR
ARE SATURATED. RAINFALL THAT AFFECTS THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY BECOME
RUNOFF AND CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. RIO BLANCO...RI
GRANDE IN EL VERDE...RIO ESPIRITU SANTO...AND RIO FAJARDO ALL
WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY. RIO ICACOS WAS 0.02 FEET FROM
REACHING FLOOD STAGE. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF PR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BECOME RUNOFF AND
CAUSE FLOODING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 73 88 / 90 90 50 50
STT 77 85 78 86 / 60 80 60 50