Texas Fall-2015

[vbhoutex]

As the "heat miser" said, here is what Jeff sent our for our area yesterday,
quote]As we begin to recover from one flood, factors appear to be coming together to produce yet another round of heavy rainfall from late Thursday into next weekend. It is too early to talk specific totals, but a slow moving upper level storm system will combine with a stalling frontal boundary over SE TX to produce potentially an extended period of rainfall.

With grounds now fully saturated from between 10-20 inches of rainfall in the last week run-off will be likely with additional rainfall.

Still plenty of time to fine tune the details, timing, and rainfall amounts with this incoming system[/quote].

My storm total for the last week is 13.36". Year total so far is 63.45" well over normal for the year of somewhere around 48".

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler is up to 51 inches on the year, average as of now is 37 inches. We have had around to 10 inches at my house from the last couple systems with 12+ inches just to my north. Looks like another couple inches later this week.
I am going to start looking into next week with a keen eye as it looks to begin our trend towards winter. Remember we had snow about this time last year.

[weatherdude1108]

OK, I've had enough rain now. Had 9.16" a week ago and 7.78" this past weekend. Total rainfall for the year 72.45". Sorry it's been so dry up there in Dallas, Brent.

Ah, I see Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control sent out an email about yet another heavy rain event for Houston this Thu-Sat. Great...

Have you thought about investing in a waterbed sir? Might settle you in for it. Easy refills.

[CaptinCrunch]

Welcome November....

Well I guess it's time for me to toss out the good old Halloween analogy for the Winter 2015/2016. I started this analogy 13 yrs ago after the birth of my youngest Son on Oct 30th. I started looking at Halloween as a focal point in time and then went backwards 10 yrs and looked at every Halloween and October from 2002. I look at the Average monthly temp and average monthly precip as well as the average daily temp of October 31st to gauge the upcoming winter . It was strange to see that how Halloween turned out, translated to How the following Winter went.

So for 13 yrs now I have used the strange but affective analogy, and it's has been surprisingly some what accurate.

October 2015
[TEMPERATURE DATA] --------- [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 71.2 ---- TOTAL FOR MONTH: 9.82
DPTR FM NORMAL: +3.7 ----- DPTR FM NORMAL: +5.60

Halloween
H68 L59 Average 64 +1 avg.

So what does the coming Winter look like now? Winter 2015/16 will see much above average precip, but only average Temps +/- a few degrees. Technically this would be an above average winter temperature wise, but do to the above average precip and cloud cover temps will hold to the average mark.

[Brent]

18z GFS has DFW briefly going below 540 thickness at 252 hours... and it looks almost below normal the entire run after the next few days... nothing record breaking but hey its better than above normal.

this pattern coming up is what we've been waiting for guys...

[TheProfessor]

I would pay some attention to the next system (not this week but the following). Dont think it will be any kind of winter storm outside of the panhandle but could be a game changer.

If you live in up north in the midwest or northeast, plan golf trips. Sea of mild as far as the eye can see, most of the weather will happen across the southern US. Rapid City usually has seen a seasonal bllizzard by now as it is their climo, but nothing of the sort. They've yet to see a major snow. I have a feeling this El Nino will toy and pull hairs for cold lovers up there this year.

It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.

There could be a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the Plains and Midwest next week lol, it's a buzz in some other forums right now.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Another upper level storm system will approach TX late this week with another round of rainfall.

Fairly quite conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another upper level low develops over the SW US and helps to increase onshore flow and Gulf moisture by Thursday. A cold front will surge down the plains ahead of this storm system and arrive into SE TX Friday afternoon and night and likely stall across the region into Saturday. Moisture levels yet again surge to very high numbers for early November of 2.0-2.2 inches which is about equal to this last weekend. SW upper level flow becomes nearly parallel to the incoming boundary which will likely encourage thunderstorm cell training Friday. GFS is faster in trying to clear the region behind the front behind late Saturday while the ECMWF lingers showers into Sunday morning. Will lean toward the slower solution as the GFS was too fast this past weekend with the clearing.

Too soon to be very confident on rainfall totals or severe weather parameters for this event. Some areas of SE TX have seen 20-25 inches of rainfall in the last 10 days…so needless to say the ground is extremely saturated and significant run-off continues into already swollen and flooding rivers. Given lower sun angle, mild temperatures, and lack of growing vegetation, do not expect much drying before the onset of the next rainfall event. Will go ahead and broadbrush a widespread 1-3 inches from late Thursday through late Saturday with isolated totals of 4-5 inches possible. Given moisture levels expected this could be on the low side, but given the already saturated grounds even these lower numbers would likely cause some issues.

Will continue to evaluate model trends over the next few days to see where the heaviest rainfall will align along with any severe potential.

Hydro:
Upstream flood waves are progressing into SE TX from late week and weekend rainfall.

Trinity River:
Upstream flood wave from excessive rainfall south of Dallas a week ago is passing through Lake Livingston and into the lower Trinity Basin. Moderate flooding is expected at Liberty for the next several days with the river holding just below major flood levels.

Brazos River:
Peak of flood wave is at Bryan and will be moving downstream to Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon this weekend. No flooding is expected at Hempstead and Richmond, but minor flooding is forecast at Rosharon.

Colorado River:
Flood wave from 12-16 inches of rainfall south of Austin Friday is passing LaGrange and heading for Columbus and Wharton. Minor flooding is expected at both Columbus and Wharton over the next few days.

San Bernard River:
River is below flood stage and not expected to exceed flood stage.

Navasota River:
River is above flood stage at Easterly and forecast to rise above flood stage at Normangee.

Current and Forecast River Levels can be found at the link below:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would pay some attention to the next system (not this week but the following). Dont think it will be any kind of winter storm outside of the panhandle but could be a game changer.

If you live in up north in the midwest or northeast, plan golf trips. Sea of mild as far as the eye can see, most of the weather will happen across the southern US. Rapid City usually has seen a seasonal bllizzard by now as it is their climo, but nothing of the sort. They've yet to see a major snow. I have a feeling this El Nino will toy and pull hairs for cold lovers up there this year.

It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.

Dont you tease me like that.

I hope you saw JB's tweet today about how much cooler the 1-2 nino region is. Thought you would like it. Sending my weather station in for replacement this week. Sensor array went out they said. Stops tracking rainfall in the middle of these big events! Its weird. After the even, i tip the station over, put it back up, starts working fine again. Hoping this next one gets fixed. Other than that it has been flawless.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose already talking Winter weather prep. in the last part of today's blog.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly cloudy conditions and occasional light rain is forecast the first half of the week as moisture returns off the Gulf of Mexico. A fairly strong cold front is forecast to push into Texas late week, causing a good chance for rain and thunderstorms. High temperatures next week will be in the 70s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Winter is Not That Far Away: We've all enjoyed an unusually warm October. In fact, the temperature was still in the 90s just a little over a couple of weeks ago. Austin-Camp Mabry recorded its 6th warmest October on record. But do note that the average date for the first freeze across Central Texas is just a month away; late November to early December. The average date for the first freeze across the Hill Country typically occurs in the middle of November. It's not too early to begin thinking about and preparing for colder weather.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[southerngale]

Major flooding here. Many homes in my neighborhood are underwater and others are stranded. This is the worst I've seen since 1994 and Pine Island Bayou is still rising. Schools have been canceled this week so far and on a day-to-day basis. Hardin County has received a disaster declaration. It's been a while since I've seen the Red Cross set up in my neighborhood. Any and all prayers appreciated. It's really sad. Sidenote... the little kids don't understand why Halloween was "canceled"

[Ntxw]

It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.

There could be a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the Plains and Midwest next week lol, it's a buzz in some other forums right now.

I haven't payed much attention to severe weather (it's been very low since spring). Is it expected to be a local event? I guess of the late week system bringing rains to Texas and the mid south deepens enough it could spur severe weather up there. It does have the look of early spring, but I don't think it's a major tornado outbreak or anything of that sort.



But this warmth is serious, it's not just a little warm, it is near record warmth for much of the eastern and northern areas of the US for the next 1-2 weeks. Texas though has the influence of the STJ and passing rains to keep it closer to normal along with the southwest.

[TheProfessor]

It would be funny to see midwesterners watch news of snowstorm in Houston, with little snow up there.

There could be a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the Plains and Midwest next week lol, it's a buzz in some other forums right now.

I haven't payed much attention to severe weather (it's been very low since spring). Is it expected to be a local event? I guess of the late week system bringing rains to Texas and the mid south deepens enough it could spur severe weather up there. It does have the look of early spring, but I don't think it's a major tornado outbreak or anything of that sort.



But this warmth is serious, it's not just a little warm, it is near record warmth for much of the eastern and northern areas of the US for the next 1-2 weeks. Texas though has the influence of the STJ and passing rains to keep it closer to normal along with the southwest.

Model runs have been showing some fairly strong lapse rates (though it's still fairly in the long range but within 240 hours) and strong winds, looks like there would be enough dry air to mix it down to the surface in some areas. The only thing that could be missing is CAPE (instability) but as I've been told as long as the instability just makes what is needed and you have a surplus of everything else then you can get a pretty decent severe event. Some GFS runs have had PWATS reaching 2.0 inches in Southern Illinois, which would break records for this time of year for that area, and PWATS of 1.5-1.7 for a much larger area.

[Ntxw]

But this warmth is serious, it's not just a little warm, it is near record warmth for much of the eastern and northern areas of the US for the next 1-2 weeks. Texas though has the influence of the STJ and passing rains to keep it closer to normal along with the southwest.

Model runs have been showing some fairly strong lapse rates (though it's still fairly in the long range but within 240 hours) and strong winds, looks like there would be enough dry air to mix it down to the surface in some areas. The only thing that could be missing is CAPE (instability) but as I've been told as long as the instability just makes what is needed and you have a surplus of everything else then you can get a pretty decent severe event. Some GFS runs have had PWATS reaching 2.0 inches in Southern Illinois, which would break records for this time of year for that area, and PWATS of 1.5-1.7 for a much larger area.

That is very high PW's but that would make sense given the warmth. I wonder what is considered severe up there, CAPE values doesn't seem to high and indicative of the squally thunderstorms we often see here in the spring. But of course things are different in different areas of the country. Keep us on tabs!

[Ntxw]

Speaking of severe weather, SPC did prog slight risk for the Red River valley into central Texas. Probably in the form of a squall line for D3 (Thurs). MCS forming in NW Texas and sweeping the state. The progressive nature doesn't seem to produce the greater rainfall that was modeled a few days ago. Though a quick 1-3" is possible unless things slow down or guidance is underplaying the STJ


SPC AC 030832

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST TUE NOV 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WIND...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE TO NM EARLY
THU SHOULD TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT RAPIDLY EJECTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A CYCLONE OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL DEEPEN AS
IT EJECTS TOWARDS THE LK SUPERIOR AREA. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS /UP TO AROUND 15 MB OF
SPREAD IN CENTRAL PRESSURE/ BY 12Z/FRI. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ACCELERATE E AND STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST TO SE TX AT 12Z/FRI.

...S-CNTRL STATES...
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS S/E TX
EARLY THU...INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG IT
INTO THU EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE MOST PROMINENT ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ARKLATEX
REGION...WITH HAIL MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO PARTS OF CNTRL TX. MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK WITH SRN EXTENT ON THU
NIGHT.

[weatherdude1108]

What exactly is the low level jet? Is that a different "animal" from the subtropical jet? I think I remember the LLJ forms during the nighttime hours(?).

The weatherman here said the LLJ was a big factor in the amount of moisture that was feeding into the storms last Friday here. It was picking up vast quantities of water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, just fueling the "fire" of the storm training.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What exactly is the low level jet? Is that a different "animal" from the subtropical jet? I think I remember the LLJ forms during the nighttime hours(?).

The weatherman here said the LLJ was a big factor in the amount of moisture that was feeding into the storms last Friday here. It was picking up vast quantities of water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, just fueling the "fire" of the storm training.

It would make sense when you have a Low to our west and when the GOM is as warm as it is right now in relation to the land. Air rushes in towards the low from the Gulf at a low altitude, i think around the 850 layer or lower. Last week friday it was very windy here and very low clouds were streaming the moisture rich air overhead. I could be wrong about this though, someone feel free to correct me.

The sub-tropical jet is a moisture stream coming from SW of mexico or straight from the Pacific. Really shows its face during El nino years. Interesting thing was we had BOTH factors playing into the insane rains we had last week.

[Ntxw]

What exactly is the low level jet? Is that a different "animal" from the subtropical jet? I think I remember the LLJ forms during the nighttime hours(?).

The weatherman here said the LLJ was a big factor in the amount of moisture that was feeding into the storms last Friday here. It was picking up vast quantities of water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, just fueling the "fire" of the storm training.

It would make sense when you have a Low to our west and when the GOM is as warm as it is right now in relation to the land. Air rushes in towards the low from the Gulf at a low altitude, i think around the 850 layer or lower. Last week friday it was very windy here and very low clouds were streaming the moisture rich air overhead. I could be wrong about this though, someone feel free to correct me.

The sub-tropical jet is a moisture stream coming from SW of mexico or straight from the Pacific. Really shows its face during El nino years. Interesting thing was we had BOTH factors playing into the insane rains we had last week.

Sounds good to me

LLJ is a fast moving air at the low levels, it can transport copious amounts of moisture from the gulf and often is nocturnal to a very localized area or region with rain bombs. Basically the changes in pressure gradient (cooling of temperatures at one altitude vs another to the east etc). The STJ is different and is much larger scale and way way way further up in the atmosphere and often delivers higher moisture and systems from the tropical Pacific.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Subtropical Jet post a big cold front is what we like the most

[weatherdude1108]

Thanks guys!
Small scale lower altitude (LLJ) vs. large scale higher altitude (STJ)

The weather service throws out all these technical acronyms and terms sometimes; it can be challenging to keep up with the jargon.

[Brent]

The way I remember the low level jet is it would always be going at extreme speeds usually during our Dixie Alley tornado outbreaks back east... so much more of a localized short-term event.

the STJ is much more a broad pattern thing.