Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

Man, the 12z Euro has me at 31 and 28 degrees Wednesday and Thursday morning. That’s crazy early for Wharton County to be that cold. Also, the Euro has some parts of the panhandle below 0 Tuesday morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
347 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FZ.W.0005.181113T0000Z-181113T1500Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico,Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert

347 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday.

* TEMPERATURE...Widespread freezing temperatures are expectedMonday night into Tuesday morning. Lows will drop into the lower 20s northwest of the Metroplex. Mid 20s to near 30 can be expected elsewhere.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants will be susceptible to the
freezing conditions and should be brought indoors or protected. If sprinklers are left on, freezing of water on
sidewalks and roads will likely occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means that the season`s first episode of sub-
freezing temperatures are likely to occur. These conditions will
kill sensitive plants and residents are advised to protect tender
vegetation. Automatic sprinkler systems should also be turned off to avoid creating ice patches on nearby roads, driveways, and sidewalks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another time a cold core low created mischief in SE TX

[bubba hotep]

Pete Delkus trying to keep hope alive "dusting for DFW"

PANIC MODE! Heavy snow in the panhandle - cold rain for NTX. Plan on slowdowns for the Monday AM commute. As colder air works in, a little snow mix in with the rain! Areas from DFW to the northwest could get a dusting on grassy surfaces. Here's the timeline: #wfaaweather

[Captmorg70]

Pete Delkus trying to keep hope alive "dusting for DFW"

PANIC MODE! Heavy snow in the panhandle - cold rain for NTX. Plan on slowdowns for the Monday AM commute. As colder air works in, a little snow mix in with the rain! Areas from DFW to the northwest could get a dusting on grassy surfaces. Here's the timeline: #wfaaweather

What do you think it would take for a “dusting” to occur? Maybe there is an ingredient that overperforms, but this just doesn’t seem like a great setup for us in NTX

[Brent]

Pete Delkus trying to keep hope alive "dusting for DFW"

PANIC MODE! Heavy snow in the panhandle - cold rain for NTX. Plan on slowdowns for the Monday AM commute. As colder air works in, a little snow mix in with the rain! Areas from DFW to the northwest could get a dusting on grassy surfaces. Here's the timeline: #wfaaweather

Ah the eternal snow optimist lol. I'd be surprised if its more than a few flakes mixed in tbh

[Brent]

We Dallas people that cant buy a snowstorm need to move to the Panhandle lol

[bubba hotep]

We Dallas people that cant buy a snowstorm need to move to the Panhandle lol

Pic from Dumas, TX

[Captmorg70]

Even though I know the chances is very small tomorrow, probably will be staring at the radar and HRRR until it’s obvious that nothing is going to happen.

[Brent]

We Dallas people that cant buy a snowstorm need to move to the Panhandle lol

Pic from Dumas, TX

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrxVoCUUcAAliQh.jpg

Nice

I just keep telling myself some day that'll be us again lol

[Brent]

The 0z CMC continues to look interesting Wednesday especially from Dallas and points east Eventually one of these storms is gonna actually verify

[Cerlin]

The 0z CMC continues to look interesting Wednesday especially from Dallas and points east Eventually one of these storms is gonna actually verify

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hphv5x.png

The NAM hints at the cold core too but doesn’t seem to support it with any precip.

[Ntxw]

At this point you are rooting for the early closed low solution. If there is enough lift may see some snow yet with cold temperatures. Though might not be much, it is a better solution than the open positive tilt trough.

Hoping for a sneaky surprise.

[Ntxw]

Thundersnow with white out conditions currently in the Panhandle. Oh what could have been but glad for them as they were also in a snow/precip drought last year.



 https://twitter.com/NWSAmarillo/status/1061839209567318018

[Cerlin]

At this point you are rooting for the early closed low solution. If there is enough lift may see some snow yet with cold temperatures. Though might not be much, it is a better solution than the open positive tilt trough.

Hoping for a sneaky surprise.

Even though it’s highly improbable, there are some EPS members showing half a foot of snow for DFW with the Thursday possibilities. I definitely will be rooting for whichever solution gives us the highest amount of snow, but the last 3 years have taught me to expect nothing.

[Ntxw]

At this point you are rooting for the early closed low solution. If there is enough lift may see some snow yet with cold temperatures. Though might not be much, it is a better solution than the open positive tilt trough.

Hoping for a sneaky surprise.

Even though it’s highly improbable, there are some EPS members showing half a foot of snow for DFW with the Thursday possibilities. I definitely will be rooting for whichever solution gives us the highest amount of snow, but the last 3 years have taught me to expect nothing.

You never know with the closed core lows. It will be plenty cold enough aloft and at the surface. If it can find moisture and pull it back or generate enough lift to beat the models it would be an early Christmas gift! That sounds about right expect nothing and hope for something!

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you think it's a matter of time before the right setup happens for a more realistic event for a little further south than where it is now?

[Brent]

At this point you are rooting for the early closed low solution. If there is enough lift may see some snow yet with cold temperatures. Though might not be much, it is a better solution than the open positive tilt trough.

Hoping for a sneaky surprise.

Even though it’s highly improbable, there are some EPS members showing half a foot of snow for DFW with the Thursday possibilities. I definitely will be rooting for whichever solution gives us the highest amount of snow, but the last 3 years have taught me to expect nothing.

Yeah i have to agree I'm still not over last winter or the years before

I know our time is coming but its just like when lol

I guess just the fact we're getting another possibility this week is amazing in itself

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you think it's a matter of time before the right setup happens for a more realistic event for a little further south than where it is now?

I really like our chances. I am seeing signs from the ensembles of a classic weak-mod Nino -NAOish set up going in the Atlantic after some retrogression of the monster European Ridge. The negative trough anomaly should extend from the Atlantic back to Texas with west coast or Aleutian trough undercutting it. I think we'll see a period coming here similar to events that occurred in 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 at 500mb. At some point we're going to get there, I can't say for sure on individual storms and timing, but for sure we may have more than one needle in the haystack. There will be a parade of southern STJ riding systems.





It won't be long though after Thanksgiving that we will be likely talking about the threat of a winter storm, in my opinion.

[Ntxw]

Also lost in translation is the colder air. DFW is now -3.8F for the month so far. One freeze down and the forecast has 3 more. Hard freezes Tomorrow night, Tuesday morning, and a light one Wednesday morning for a total of 4 for the first half of the month. There is no anomalous torch in sight so we're going to keep this negative departure at least into week 3 of November. Far cry from the 90s one year ago.

No freezes were recorded at the airport in November 2015, 2016, or 2017.