Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SAT JUN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH ON SUN AND
HOLD THRU TUE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH WAVE PASSAGE
LATER TODAY AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF FCST OF A
FEW DAYS AGO. THIS HAS SOME SIG IMPLICATIONS IN POP AND FIRE WX
FCSTS FOR TODAY AND SUN. MINIMA IN PWAT OCCURRING RIGHT NOW BUT
MOISTURE WILL SURGE QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NOW EXPECTED OVR WRN PR. SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL
ENTER THE ERN CARIB TONIGHT AND SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS PR SUN
LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH DRYER HOTTER AND WINDY WX.
REDUCED POPS FOR SUN SINCE STRONG WINDS AND DUST HAZE WILL GREATLY
INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

FURTHER DRYING AND WARMING ARE EXPECTED ON MON WITH 850 MB
DEWPOINTS FALLING TO 4C AND 850 MB TEMPS RISING OVER 20C RESPECTIVELY.
USED ECMWF TEMP/DEWPOINTS PROFILES AS IT HANDLES THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MUCH BETTER THAN GFS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY
LIKELY ON MON ACCORDING TO ECMWF FCST. ALSO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
DUST HAZE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.

SAL WEAKENS ON WED BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH FEW ISOLTD VCSH OVERNIGHT. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND INTERIOR PR AND AROUND TJMZ AFT
14/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO...10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
14/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH MON WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ATLC
AND 4-6 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS. SIGNIFICANT DUST HAZE WILL REDUCE
VSBYS TO 5-6SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TIMING OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE HAS CHANGED AND
IS NOW FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO. RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY
TODAY NOW HOWEVER FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE SUN AND MON AS WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND SAL DRIES THINGS OUT. RED FLAGS POSSIBLE ON SUN BUT
APPEAR MORE LIKELY ON MON AS ECWMF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
WARMING WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS/TEMPS OF 4C AND 21C RESPECTIVELY.
SIMILAR EVENT OCCURRED ON JUNE 15 2012 TWO DAYS BEFORE FATHERS
DAY AND HAD SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND DECIDE WHETHER TO CANCEL FIRE WX
WATCH OR UPGRADE TO RFW BY 6AM BUT RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARD
CANCELING IT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 0 10 10 0
STT 88 79 88 79 / 0 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST SAT JUN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SAHARA AIR LAYER WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOT OF DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST 14/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
ONLY 1.22 INCHES. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS...ACCOMPANY
BY SAHARAN DUST...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL
INDICATED THIS AREA OF SAL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AFFECTING MOST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WINDS SHIFTS MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST..AND BRINGS WITH IT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH FEW SHRA IN AND AROUND TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND
INTERIOR PR AND AROUND TJMZ AFT 15/18Z. TJSJ 14/12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND
STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO WAS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 40-45 PERCENT MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 12-16 MPH GUSTING TO 22 MPH. HOWEVER..AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT(RFDSJU) IS IN
EFFECT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 10 10 0 0
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy fathers day. Hazy weather will prevail today thru Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SUN JUN 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MON
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION THROUGH MON AND ACT TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE NEXT TWO DAYS ESPECIALLY ON MON. FOLLOWED THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS IT TYPICALLY HANDLES SAL AND ITS
INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING BETTER THAN THE GFS. SAL
WEAKENS MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL OFF A FEW DEGS. AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS EXPECT A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVR
NW PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AND SAT GREATLY LIMITING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS ALSO REBOUND UNDER SUBSIDING AIR MASS. BELIEVE
THE GFS IS OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKELY TO END UP WITH A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE PRD WITH FEW VCSH. EXPECT HAZY CONDS DUE TO SAHARAN AIR
LAYER MVNG IN FROM EAST. LOW LVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
15/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...STRONG WINDS NEAR 20-KT TODAY AND SUN THEN DIMINISH TUE
AND WED BUT INCREASE AGAIN THU-FRI. SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT 4-6 FT
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND MON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITIES. NOT DRY ENOUGH
TODAY FOR A RED FLAG WARNING BUT WIND SPEED CRITERIA WILL BE MET.

SOLID RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. H850 TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FCST BY ECMWF
ARE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL RESPECTIVELY.
WILL WAIT FOR 06Z GFS TO SEE IF IT TRENDS CLOSER TO ECWMF FCST
BEFORE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

WINDS DIMINISH TUE AND WED AND MOISTURE INCREASES SO NO RED FLAGS
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK. FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. IT WILL BE DRYER BUT NOT LIKELY AT
RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 0 0 0 0
STT 90 78 90 78 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN JUN 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND VERY STABLE AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY FEW SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES... DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIMITED
EFFECTS...IF ANY...OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFTS MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST..AND BRINGS WITH
IT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THRU 16/17Z WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVER WRN PR AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AFT 16/17Z. WIND WILL
BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WINDS NEAR 20-KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN DIMINISH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY-FRIDAY. SEAS 3-5
FEET EXCEPT 4-6 FEET CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 0 0 0 10
STT 79 90 78 88 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUE. SIG
FIRE WX POTENTIAL TODAY OVR SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN...VIEQUES AND STX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SAL (TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN
THE 925-850 MB LAYER) THIS MORNING WITH UKMET THE HOTTEST AND
DRIEST AND GFS THE LEAST HOTTEST AND DRIEST AND THE ECWMF IN
BETWEEN. THIS HAVE SIG IMPLICATIONS IN THE FIRE WX FCST FOR TODAY.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

SAL WEAKENS RAPIDLY TUE MORNING WITH MOISTURE RECOVERING QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO ENE WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH COAST BRINGING A SIG IMPROVEMENT
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. WINDS SHIFT TO AN EAST OR ESE
DIRECTION WED-THU WITH SCT CONVECTION FOCUSING OVR WRN/NW PR.
TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF A FEW DEGS BRINGING A TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE
HOT WX.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING PROMOTING DRYING.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION PROMOTING
HOT TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER AGAIN
ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL BE RED FLAG.


&&

.AVIATION...DUST HAZE TODAY REDUCING VSBYS TO 6-8SM. NO WX
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE 15G21KT WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT XCPT
NEAR 10 KT AT JMZ.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT TODAY BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 13-18 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER (LPW) PRODUCT
INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC-850 MB) IS ERODING ROM THE
EAST THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS SHOWS SIG DRYING DOWN TO 850 MB OVER
ERN PR...VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX SO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET THERE. ALSO...24-HR DEWPOINT TRENDS SHOW VALUES
UP TO 3F LOWER THAN AT THIS SAME TIME YDAY IN THIS AREA. RIGHT NOW
LEANING TOWARD UPGRADING THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNDER THE
WATCH BUT WILL HOLD OFF A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS TO SEE IF I CAN GET
LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET AN ACARS SOUNDING THAT SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT
OVR THE REGION.

20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE AT 20G30 MPH AND RH`S EXPECTED RIGHT AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG. THERE WILL BE VERY POOR MOISTURE RECOVERY
TONIGHT WITH RH`S ONLY GETTING BACK TO NEAR 70% SO ANY FIRES ARE
LIKELY TO BURN ACTIVELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ON
THE SOUTH COAST. WINDS ALSO DIMINISH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 87 78 / 0 0 10 20
STT 82 78 88 78 / 0 0 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SAHARAN AIR MAINTAINED HAZY
SKIES OVER THE AREA. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
WILL COMBINE WITH SEAS BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HAZY CONDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO 6-8SM. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND INTERIOR PR AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 16/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...THEN AFT 16/23Z BCM MAINLY E AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECTED WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 19 KNOTS AND
WAVES UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO DROPPED TO 40PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS UP TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAIN...MONA...VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 78 87 / 0 10 20 20
STT 78 88 77 88 / 0 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 AM AST TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF SFC TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ONE TODAY AND A SECOND ONE THU. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ONE TODAY AND A SECOND ONE THU. STEERING WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NE TODAY FOCUSING SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PR TODAY WHERE MUCH NEEDED RAINFAL IS NEEDED. A SECOND
TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH
STEERING WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ESE FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVR WRN/NW PR.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ON THU AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING 50W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND
SAT WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WAVE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT AND WAVE WILL BE FIGHTING
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO THIS WAVE DOES NOT HAVE FVBRL
CONDITIONS TO BE A SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER. BEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SAT WITH RAPID DRYING SAT NIGHT BEHIND WAVE AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A BIT TODAY AND WED
AND THEN SOAR INTO THE 90S THU AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SUBSIDING AIR MASS UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 17Z.
HAZY CONDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY REDUCING VSBYS THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LCL MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFT 17/17Z OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND IN WESTERN PR. WINDS WILL BE EAST 5 TO 15 KT WITH LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 17/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH`S RATHER LOW AT CAMP SANTIAGO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THE LOWEST SO FAR THIS
YEAR. GIVEN THE VERY DRY START TO THE DAY IT IS LIKELY MIN_RH WILL
GET DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TODAY. WINDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND QUICK MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTH COAST. MAY ISSUE A SHORT-DURATION FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
CRITICALLY LOW RH`S LATER THIS MORNING.

DRYING EXPECTED ON THU AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE AND RISING
TEMPERATURES BUT SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
MITIGATE/TEMPER THE FIRE RISK. BETTER RH`S FRI AND SAT THEN TURNING
HOTTER AND DRYER AGAIN SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 86 80 / 0 10 20 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W AND SW PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING ITS MAXIMUM ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMES MORE EAST SOUTHEAST
EACH DAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WEST AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO PROGRESSIVELY.

WAVE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AND WAVE WILL BE
FIGHTING STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO THIS WAVE DOES NOT HAVE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER. BEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
WAVE AXIS AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HAZY CONDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY REDUCING VSBYS BETWEEN 6 AND 8SM. IN ADDITION...
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LCL MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BETWEEN 17/18Z AND 17/23Z OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND IN WESTERN PR. WINDS WILL BE EAST 5 TO 15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS AROUND 16 KT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing moisture from a Tropical Wave will occur today thru Friday in the PR/VI area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...MEANWHILE A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52/53 WEST IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON THURSDAY...THEN ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAHARAN
AIR LAYER PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE NAAPS GLOBAL AEROSOL MODEL ALL
SUGGEST ANOTHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACCOMPANYING AND
TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF DUST IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE OVERALL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SOMEWHAT MODIFY THE LOCAL STEERING OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL BRING PATCHES LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY AND THURSDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS A WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAILING THE
WAVE AND ITCZ MOISTURE IS LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AND PEAKING ON FRIDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

THEREFORE...FAIRLY MOIST AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS SO FAR IN
STORE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND STEER MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IN RESPONSE
TO THE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT RAPID DRYING AND DECREASING IN MOISTURE BY SUNDAY
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL VCSH...
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO BEGIN AFTER 18/16Z ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE IN
THE MORNING...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 18/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.A RELATIVELY
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-5 FT AND WINDS 12-17 KT ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 40 30
STT 88 78 89 79 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST...
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA INHIBITED SOMEWHAT
THE EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER LATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS.

UPWARD TREND IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
ON FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMES MORE EAST SOUTHEAST...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.

THE WAVE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AND WAVE WILL
BE FIGHTING STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE...
AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...PERIODS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY.
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LCL MVFR
CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 18/23Z
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND IN WESTERN
PR. WINDS WILL BE EAST 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND LOCAL SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS AROUND 16 KT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 2-4 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY IN ADVANCE AND ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 30 30 30 40
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 30 40 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will increase the showers from today thru Saturday in the PR/VI area. I will be out for a few days as I will make a trip to NYC.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 57W THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT
WILL INTERACT NEGATIVELY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ERODE
AND LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ACCOMPANY AND TRAIL THE WAVE WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEAR TWO INCHES OR SO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES CONTINUED TO ADVECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHILE THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES TRANSPORTED SMALL PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A SMALL SLOT OF
DRIER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. MODELS
SUGGEST SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS INCREASE IN TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE BETTER FORCING IS LIKELY.

STILL HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...TO MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CAPPING/SUPPRESSION OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AS A RESULT... ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR THE WETTEST
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER... SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LEFT BEHIND ON SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION. BY
THEN THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
QUICK PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO BETWEEN 19/18-22Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS THIS AFTERNOON.
LLVL WINDS WILL VEER FM THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 19 KTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 30 30 50 40
STT 88 78 87 79 / 30 40 60 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning.After a few days in NYC I am back to post the daily weather discussions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE JUN 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER LOCAL AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRIDAY WHILE TROUGHINESS
MOVES NORTHWARD. A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK JET WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT 9 TO 10 DAYS. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54 DEGREES WEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH
PUERTO RICO AROUND 25/18Z. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MODERATE
TO FRESH AND LADEN WITH DUST BEHIND THE WAVE. THE NEXT EASTERLY
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT ON THE
FIRST OF JULY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE FEWER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WERE SEEN IN A FEW PLACES ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS CULEBRA AND SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A DRY BAND MOVING
THROUGH ARND 25/06Z FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE STRENGTHENING JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING WESTWARD. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WINDS WILL BALANCE OFF OF THE SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON TO SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO MUCH
LIKE WAS HAD YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE OR LONG
LASTING AS THE SHOWERS THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND RAISED THE
CULEBRINAS RIVER AT THE MARGARITA DAM TO WITHIN INCHES OF THE
FLOOD STAGE AT 24/03Z. HEAVY DUST FOLLOWS THIS WAVE AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI NOTES THAT VISIBILITIES IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BE REDUCED TO AS LITTLE AS 5 TO 6 MILES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES VERY LITTLE AND TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AND FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY UNTIL A WEAK JET
FORMS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
COME CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTER THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX AND TJPS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST 24/18Z...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OPERATIONS.
ISOLD TSTMS COULD MOVED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/18Z
AND 24/23Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KTS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TISX AND TIST AFT
24/12Z... AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TJMZ AFT 24/15Z. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFT 24/19Z. AFT 25/18Z
VISIBILITIES AT TNCM AND TKPK WILL BE RESTRICTED DUE TO SAHARAN
DUST.

&&

.MARINE...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
10 DAYS...BUT A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR MORE
WHERE MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION...SUCH AS IN THE
SOUTH PART OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND IN OUR NORTHERN NEAR SHORE
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 90 80 / 20 10 30 20
STT 87 81 90 80 / 30 10 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE JUN 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH
TUTT ESTABLISHING OVER THE BAHAMAS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH ANOTHER ONE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF TROPICAL WAVE. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF BARBADOS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED. WAVE LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAR SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST HAZE TRAILS THIS WAVE AND WILL ENTER
ERN CARIB WED NIGHT AND PERSIST THRU SAT. HAZY...HOT...DRY THU-
SAT UNDER SAL. NEXT WAVE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TORN APART BY STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLIES IN FRONT OF TUTT OVR THE
BAHAMAS. OVERALL...CONTINUED HOT WEATHER WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA COULD MOVE NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ BUT WILL
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OPERATIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
WL EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS OVER NW PR THIS AFTERNOON AND SO
DECIDED TO INDICATE A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
TJBQ FROM 20Z-22Z. HOWEVER...WL EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF TJMZ. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT
EAST TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPK. MOSTLY E
WINDS AT ARND 15 KTS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATION SHOULD PREVAIL
AFT 13Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT. SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT 4-6 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...POOR MOISTURE RECOVERY TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES IN. IF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE DOES NOT ARRIVE EARLY
ENOUGH ON WED...RH`S MAY FAIL TO RECOVER AND MAY SEE SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON SAT JUNE 14 IN WHICH RH`S DROPPED TO
CRITICAL LEVELS. AIR MASS BUILDING BEHIND WAVE ON THU IS HOT AND
DRY OF SAHARAN ORIGIN. ASCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A LARGE
SWATH OF 20+KT WINDS BETWEEN 43W-48W AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE HERE ON THU. BELIEVE THERE IS A MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING RED FLAGS THU-SAT AS CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF VERY DRY AIR
AND DUST WILL HAVE SOME EFFECTS ON SFC DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 0 20 0 10
STT 80 82 80 82 / 0 20 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST WED JUN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL A CUT-OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH
OVER CUBA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK JET FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN ADVANCE EAST WITH THE FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA
CAUSING A TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OUT OF THE ATLANTIC AND WEST
ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF SAHARAN DUST. THEN
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MONDAY WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS IN THE
GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS
DISSIPATED BY 5 AM AST. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE SEEN
ADVANCING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS GUADELOUPE AND APPEARS
TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 18 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BRING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER SAINT CROIX AROUND 25/14-15Z AND OVER
SAINT THOMAS AROUND 25/16Z AND SAN JUAN AROUND 25/19Z...SPREADING
OVER THE REST OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNSET...BUT AFTER PEAK
HEATING. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE AND THE AXIS OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING PUERTO RICO AROUND 25/18Z BUT THE MAXIMUM
PRECIPITABLE WATER DELAYS UNTIL 25/00-06Z. OVERALL LITTLE REAL
CONVECTION IS BEING SEEN WITH THIS WAVE AND FEW CIRRUS TOPS
ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. IN FACT THE AXIS IS
NARROW AND DUST CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS SUGGESTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BEST MOISTURE DUE TO
LOCAL AFFECTS FOLLOWED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY OF A LIMITED NATURE THAT
LASTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AFTER 26/00Z...AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO...PARTLY ON THE BASIS OF LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN THE PRE-WAVE ATMOSPHERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SUPPOSEDLY DRIER AIR. ONLY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THIS WAVE.

DRIER CONDITIONS WITH DUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY MOISTURE DEEPENS A LITTLE AND THE CHANCES OF A SHOWER
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY WHEN MODELS PAINT
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES.
AGAIN THE BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE SECOND WAVE IS NARROW AND WILL
PASS QUICKLY...LEAVING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
RELATIVELY DRY AGAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN MUCH THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT TEN
DAYS...AND EXPANDS. THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
PRETTY MUCH SWALLOWING THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BY 03 JULY AND
CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST INDEPENDENCE DAY AT THE END
OF THE MODEL RUN.

MOS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE GREATER SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA SO HAVE KEPT 90S IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK FOR THAT AREA AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTH AND WEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

AT THIS TIME SEE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE VERY
LOCALIZED IF ANY TODAY AND THEN NONE IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...LIGHTING CAN TRAVEL UP
TO AT LEAST 10 MILES CATCHING THOSE OUTDOORS UNAWARES OF THE
POTENTIAL DANGER. EVEN DURING THE DRY WEATHER SOME POCKETS OF TALL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AND NEXT...MAINLY IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
25/12Z. AFT 25/18Z SOME PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX
AND TJSJ AS A WEAK WAVE REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALSO...AFT 25/18Z
TSRA/SHRA COULD LEAD TO MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ
AND TJMZ. IN ADDITION...TNCM AND TKPK WILL EXPERIENCE HAZY SKIES AFT
25/18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO ESE...
INCREASING AFT 25/12Z TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS AROUND THE
ISLANDS AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL BRING SEAS IN
THOSE AREAS UP TO 6 FEET IN THE LOCAL WATERS MEANING THAT MARINERS
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 81 / 20 30 10 20
STT 89 80 89 81 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED JUN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AS WAVE PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OVER BOTH THE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ENTERS THE REGION. OTHER THAN AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM
OVR WRN PR...MAINLY HAZY...HOT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WAVE EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AGAIN MON NIGHT FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE.
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PRD. NO SIG WX OR OPERATIONAL IMPACT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. L/LVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO
ESE...10-20 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV FL300. SFC
WND EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FM E AT 10 TO 15 WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT 4-6 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH`S DROPPED TO 38% AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND 47% AT VIEQUES.
NOT AS DRY THU BUT DRYING AGAIN FRI-SUN WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. RH
RECOVERS SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH WAVE PASSAGE WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE ON WITH AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 10
STT 79 83 79 83 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST THU JUN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A WEAK JET FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST WILL
FORM OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM A
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER HISPANIOLA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF INTRUSION
OF MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE LODGED IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND PAST THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CAUSED BY LOCAL EFFECTS WITH
MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. DRIER AIR
ACCOMPANIED BY DUST WAS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLUMNAR MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING DEPICTED BY MODEL IMAGERY REACHING PUERTO
RICO BY ARND 29/00Z...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS
GIVES IT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SINCE IT WILL ARRIVE AFTER PEAK HEATING LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY IT THEN. DRY AIR AND EVEN MORE DUST IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WAVE AND WILL SET THE TONE FOR WEATHER THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HAZE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OPERATIONAL
IMPACT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TJSJ 26/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY FROM 5-15K FEET AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY FROM 15-25K
FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT LOWER LEVELS DURING THE DAY...BUT SEA
BREEZES WILL INCREASE NEAR COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS...18 KNOTS...MOST AFTERNOONS IN SOME
OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED AS LOW AS 31 PERCENT
AT CAMP SANTIAGO YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE 19 MPH AT 2 PM AST BUT
DIMINISHED WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN GUANICA...CABO ROJO AND VIEQUES
REMAINED ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR TODAY.
WINDS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE LESS THAN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
DURING THAT TIME. A STATEMENT TO THIS EFFECT WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE
7 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 80 / 10 10 20 20
STT 89 80 83 80 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST THU JUN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE END OF WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB SEA
SUN. SAL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI WITH ANOTHER SAL EVENT ON MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT WAVE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR
AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ANOTHER SAL EVENT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA MON-TUE ALTHOUGH DUST LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS DENSE AS THE ONE TODAY. GRADUAL DRYING AGAIN MON OR MON NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE DRYING
THAN THE GFS MON. OVERALL...CONTINUED HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COAST...VIEQUES
AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.AVIATION...SLIGHT CHC OF ISOLD SHRA VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ TIL 26/22Z.
HOWEVER VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ENTIRE PRD ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
HAZY CONDS EXPECT ACROSS FLYING AREA DUE TO WIDESPREAD SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES MAINLY BTW FL030-FL150...BUT SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT OR CREATE AVN HAZARD. L/LVL WND SFC-FL200 FM E AT 5-15 KTS
BCMG FM N AND INCR/ W/HT ABV FL350.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT FRI WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY SERIOUS RED FLAG EVENT APPEARS DEFINITE ON
SATURDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TOP TO BOTTOM.
OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN RH SUN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE...NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK PARTICULARLY VERY DRY WITH LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL. MULTIPLE RED FLAG DAYS APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A HOT DRY AIR MASS OF SAHARAN
ORIGIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 91 80 91 / 0 0 0 10
STT 81 83 80 90 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
MID NEXT WEEK NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING BRIEFLY SAINT THOMAS...AND SAINT
CROIX. NO ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED OVER PUERTO RICO. HAZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...AS SAHARAN AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED THIS SAHARAN AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAZY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...TO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HAZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
27/23Z. AFTER 27/17Z SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PR WITH BRIEF MVFR OVER TJMZ. TJSJ 27/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY
FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT. STRONGEST
WINDS ARND 45 KFT AT 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL PROMOTE FIRE
DANGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 80 / 10 0 10 30
STT 89 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1219 PM AST FRI JUN 27 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY...

.INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT
IN FIRE DANGER AND RESULT IN RAPID SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
WILDFIRES. FIRE MANAGERS AND FIREFIGHTERS ARE HIGHLY ENCOURAGED
TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

PRZ014-280200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FW.A.0009.140628T1600Z-140628T2200Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
1219 PM AST FRI JUN 27 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: 15 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): GREATER THAN 600.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE:LESS THAN 10% AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: MID 30S IN CAMP SANTIAGO AND 40 TO
45 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED PASS MAINLY SOUTH AND EXIT THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY SPARSE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AND EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EVERY TWO TO THREE DAYS OR SO. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TRAILING THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...BUT SO FAR EXPECT THE MAJORITY
OF THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
JUST NORTH AND TRAILING THE WAVE...WILL HOWEVER BE SUFFICIENT TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL AND ACCOMPANYING SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
ANOTHER EXTENSIVE EPISODE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...IF ANY AT ALL IT WILL BE FOCUSED AND ENHANCED MAINLY ALONG
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED AREAS OF POSSIBLY A STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL FORCING.
ELSEWHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OF
SHORT DURATION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ENTIRE PRD AT MOST TAF SITES AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. FM 27/19Z-27/22Z ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA
STILL FCST TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WRN AND PR WITH BRIEF MVFR IN
AND OVER TJMZ. NO OTHER SIG WX OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER INDUCED BY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...COMBINED WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED RISK OF FIRE DANGER ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 88 / 0 10 30 30
STT 79 90 81 90 / 10 20 30 30