Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

It got down to 58º here in Palm Beach Gardens this morning with dew points in the lower-50's. Currently it is 80º with dew points in the mid-50's and my windows and doors are open. Can't believe it's May 1st already and one month until the official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Maybe if we're lucky this East Coast trough will stick around through hurricane season.(Keeping my fingers crossed!)

[TheStormExpert]

After plenty of May like heat in March it seems only fitting to kick of May with a scoop of March. Here's to cheering on more late season dry air and below normal temps..

Yep, this is well deserved after the early season heat and humidity we put up with most of March and April, likely the last hoorah until mid-late October at the earliest in terms of cooler weather is concerned.

[psyclone]

The pattern favors more refreshing (by May standards) weather. It's too late for legit cool but it isn't too late for pushes of dry and refreshing air. 90 degree highs are surprisingly comfy with 60 and under dewpoints. and the nights are simply divine under such a scenario. The chances of such invasions are much higher than normal over the next couple of weeks.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1256301606070435845



There is the theory that a warm, wet May in South Florida often portends fewer hurricane landfalls in the region.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1256301606070435845
There is the theory that a warm, wet May in South Florida often portends fewer hurricane landfalls in the region.

Landfalls in the region aren't a normal occurrence to begin with. I don't know man. Sounds like Wooly Caterpillar type stuff to me.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1256301606070435845
There is the theory that a warm, wet May in South Florida often portends fewer hurricane landfalls in the region.

Landfalls in the region aren't a normal occurrence to begin with. I don't know man. Sounds like Wolly Caterpillar type stuff to me.

I think that tweet was deleted as is does seem like Farmer's Almanac fodder.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1256301606070435845
There is the theory that a warm, wet May in South Florida often portends fewer hurricane landfalls in the region.

Landfalls in the region aren't a normal occurrence to begin with. I don't know man. Sounds like Wolly Caterpillar type stuff to me.

I think that tweet was deleted as is does seem like Farmer's Almanac fodder.

S. Fla. Forecaster Suggests Link Between Hurricane Behavior, May Rainfall (28 April 2005)

Lushine, who has predicted South Florida weather for 33 years, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel he suspects there is a link between May rainfall and the chances of hurricanes striking South Florida.

When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. “It’s kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us,” Lushine explained. ...

Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.

More information: Increased S. Florida Hurricane Risk? - May Precip. Totals

[toad strangler]

Landfalls in the region aren't a normal occurrence to begin with. I don't know man. Sounds like Wolly Caterpillar type stuff to me.

I think that tweet was deleted as is does seem like Farmer's Almanac fodder.

S. Fla. Forecaster Suggests Link Between Hurricane Behavior, May Rainfall

I don't buy it. The wet season in Miami gets underway on average in May. Of course they will see wetter than "region normal" most years. God Bless America though ...

[psyclone]

The May s florida hurricane theory has been around for awhile. Not sure how valid it is but as of now the first half of May is favored to be drier than average. Enjoy the sun.

[Patrick99]

That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1256301606070435845
There is the theory that a warm, wet May in South Florida often portends fewer hurricane landfalls in the region.

There is little to no evidence to back this up. It's just a myth.

[TheStormExpert]

First off, there hasn't been much if any Bermuda High in weeks all in thanks to the East Coast trough that has been present most of April and continuing into this month. Secondly I heard that the wetter May in South Florida means fewer to no hurricane threats in South Florida theory is just a myth.

On average the South Florida rainy season typically starts around May 15th-20th and goes through mid-October here and peaks in late May and June with a secondary peak in August and September partially thanks to increased tropical cyclone threats then.

[boca]

Saturday through Monday...

A potentially active weather pattern may evolve as the jet stream
slips equatorward placing South Florida within the right entrance
region for the latter portion of the weekend into early next week.
This will coincide with a mid-level poleward flux of moisture and
vorticity advection all while a surface front settles into South
Florida from the north. This pattern evolution is most strongly
suggested by the 04.12z deterministic GFS, with support from the
04.12z GGEM, and to a lesser extent, 04.00z ECMWF solutions.
Coincident with the mid-level response, there are suggestions of a
southwesterly low-level jet setting up, thus bringing a focused push
of warm/moist advection while the front stalls in the vicinity.
Given slowing MBE vectors and increasing moisture flux convergence
at 850 mb, we`ll need to watch for heavy rain potential during some
portion of this period. Right now the mesoscale details are murky,
and this will factor into the forecast evolution. Stay tuned for
updates. After a warm start to the weekend, temperatures may cool
into early next week given the possible increase in clouds and
rainfall.

&&

.Marine...

This is from NWS Miami and maybe this will help us in the drought.

[psyclone]

Let's hope that active weather pattern shows up. It looked like we were headed into another dry stretch...which is common this time of year. Definitely worth watching

[northjaxpro]

Saturday through Monday...

A potentially active weather pattern may evolve as the jet stream
slips equatorward placing South Florida within the right entrance
region for the latter portion of the weekend into early next week.
This will coincide with a mid-level poleward flux of moisture and
vorticity advection all while a surface front settles into South
Florida from the north. This pattern evolution is most strongly
suggested by the 04.12z deterministic GFS, with support from the
04.12z GGEM, and to a lesser extent, 04.00z ECMWF solutions.
Coincident with the mid-level response, there are suggestions of a
southwesterly low-level jet setting up, thus bringing a focused push
of warm/moist advection while the front stalls in the vicinity.
Given slowing MBE vectors and increasing moisture flux convergence
at 850 mb, we`ll need to watch for heavy rain potential during some
portion of this period. Right now the mesoscale details are murky,
and this will factor into the forecast evolution. Stay tuned for
updates. After a warm start to the weekend, temperatures may cool
into early next week given the possible increase in clouds and
rainfall.

&&

.Marine...

This is from NWS Miami and maybe this will help us in the drought.

Also, to add to this by re-postng what I discussed on the Global Models Disvussion Thread late last.night about the potental.for early next week:

The models are bringing a rather strong front for May deep down into the Gulf of Mexico and even passes through South Florida by Mondsy. The front stalls out across the Southern GOM and off the Southeast CONUS coastilne into early next week. Models are definitely picking up on Low Pressure potentially forrming early next week somewhere along that stalled boundary from the Southern GOM or SE GOM or off the Southeast U.S. Coast or in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Chances of seeing our first potential tropical cyclone of the early season are gradually improving as time progresses.

It is looking more and more intriguing with the model runs as we get into Sunday and into early next week.

[Shell Mound]

That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

Maybe you are referring to 2004, for which elaboration is unnecessary. 2008, 2010, and 2011 were also quite dry, but did not feature local hurricane impacts, though Fay (2008) came close to hurricane intensity, while situated near Lake Okeechobee. 2017 was also on the dry side prior to Irma. 1926, 1928, 1933, 1935, 1945, 1965, and 1992 were notoriously dry in South FL, and each year featured notorious major-hurricane impacts. So a number of dry Mays have preceded significant landfalls on South FL, though the correlation, however plausible, isn’t absolute. 1947, 1948, 1949, and 1950 featured very wet Mays and major-hurricane impacts on South FL. 1960 was near average and preceded Donna.

[TheStormExpert]

That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

Maybe you are referring to 2004, for which elaboration is unnecessary. 2008, 2010, and 2011 were also quite dry, but did not feature local hurricane impacts, though Fay (2008) came close to hurricane intensity, while situated near Lake Okeechobee. 2017 was also on the dry side prior to Irma. 1926, 1928, 1933, 1935, 1945, 1965, and 1992 were notoriously dry in South FL, and each year featured notorious major-hurricane impacts. So a number of dry Mays have preceded significant landfalls on South FL, though the correlation, however plausible, isn’t absolute. 1947, 1948, 1949, and 1950 featured very wet Mays and major-hurricane impacts on South FL. 1960 was near average and preceded Donna.

Yes, a lot if not all the S. FL Rainy Seasons that feature a stronger than normal Bermuda High feature a drier than average rainy season along the SE Florida coast. Don’t know why 2010 or 2011 were drier than normal along SE Florida in recent memory as they did not feature a stronger than normal Bermuda High if one at all.

[TheStormExpert]

Drove up to Stuart today to go to the beach since beaches up there are open and man was it chilly yet refreshing to say the least! I don't think it got above 73º degrees there today, the water temperature was likely warmer than the air temperature! Meanwhile back here in Palm Beach Gardens the high got up 80º, what a contrast 40 miles or so makes.

[northjaxpro]

Mother Nature gave us a very nice gift of very cool temps for the first week of May. We deserve this after such a non existent past meteorological winter season we just had.

Currently 46.8 degrees at my home station. It is in the mid-upper 40s across all of interior North and Northeast Florida at this hour. Cecil Commerce, in far western Jacksonvile/Duval County and the notorious cold drainage spot in the area, is currently 41 degrees!!

Beautiful weather with sunshine today and max temps warmer today, as the wind veers back to the southwest ahead of the next cool front approaching the region late today, with highs into the lower 80s.

The next front will bring onshore winds (northeast) back to the area , especially on Sunday , Mother's Day as rain returns and highs here only in the lower 70s.

Central and South Florida looks to finally cash in big time with the front stalling out over South Florida/Florida Keys/Florida Straits on Sunday. An area of Low Pressure is forecast to form along that stalled boundary on Sunday and continuing into Monday. This will bring some very heavy rainfall potential to much of South Florida Sunday and into Monday.

The Low Pressure area is expected to be Non-Tropical in nature as it will be attached to the front.

However, the Low Pressure area does warrant watching if it festers in the Southeast GOM for any decent duration there, or to see if it tries to transition to sub tropical or tropical characteristics early next week. 00Z Canadian shows a potential LOW /TC formation in the Bahamas on next Friday (5/15).

[Patrick99]

Crazy....looking at the satellite loop currently, and struggling to understand how we are going to get from how that picture looks *now*, and the very dry atmosphere I can clearly see outside my window, to potentially 4 inches of rain on Sunday. Is that feature just under the Yucatan going to lift north and start interacting with the front?