Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

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CrazyC83
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - HIGH RISK today

#161 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 7:42 pm

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL IA INTO FAR NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 300037Z - 300130Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/EVOLVE EWD INTO IA/FAR NRN MO FROM ERN NEB/NRN KS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...STRONG TO
SEVERE...EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB TO FAR NRN
KS...WITH MORE RECENT ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM EAST
CENTRAL NEB TO WEST CENTRAL IA /MONONA COUNTY/. RECENT DOPPLER
RADAR VELOCITY TRENDS WITH THE ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR PLATTE COUNTY
NEB INDICATED STRONG WINDS WITH A TRACK TOWARD THE ENE AT CLOSE TO
50 KT. THIS FAST MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT THESE TRENDS MAY BE
INDICATING THE BEGINNING STAGES OF LINEAR EVOLUTION...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT FAR ERN NEB INTO IA AND PARTS OF FAR NRN MO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NERN NEB WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR SERN SD AND THEN ESEWD THROUGH
NWRN TO CENTRAL AND SERN IA. ANY MCS/BOW ECHO THAT FORMS THIS
EVENING SHOULD TRACK ESEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
INTO IA/FAR NRN MO.

..PETERS.. 05/30/2008


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
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#162 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 29, 2008 7:45 pm

24 reports now. Old record for may 509 to be tied today
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - HIGH RISK today

#163 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 7:46 pm

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ECNTRL/SERN
NEB...NCNTRL/NERN KS...SWRN/SCNTRL IA AND EXTREME NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY...

...MO VLY TO UPR MS VLY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOST INTENSE UPR JET STREAK ASSOCD WITH THE
EJECTING LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO ERN CO/NWRN KS
AND SRN NEB...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VLY TONIGHT.
CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN THE SLY LLJ WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER CNTRL/ERN KS INTO THE MID-MO VLY...THEN VEER SWLY ACROSS THE
IA/MO BORDER INTO THE UPR MS VLY REGION AFT 06Z.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL NEB WITH A THERMAL LOW
ALONG THE TRI-STATE BORDER OF NEB/KS/CO. A LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
OVER NERN NEB THIS EVENING AND MOVE ALONG A RETREATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BISECTING IA AT 00Z.

TO THE E OF THE SFC LOW...COMBINATION OF GENTLY BACKING NEAR SFC
FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO SWLY/WLY IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING LOWERING LCLS AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM
CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN KS...INTO PARTS OF IA AND
PERHAPS NRN MO. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY EXIST THROUGH MID-EVENING OVER ECNTRL/SERN NEB...NCNTRL/NERN
KS AND WRN IA.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FOR A SUSTAINED HIGH-END
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONVECTIVE MODE AS THERE ARE PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS VIA RADAR THAT THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND INTERACTIONS
THEREOF ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MESSY STORM STRUCTURES/MIXED-MODE
SITUATION.

AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER AND INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...
EVOLUTION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW ECHOES IS LIKELY ALONG/S OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL/SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO WITH DMGG
WINDS /A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORTS/.
N OF THE OUTFLOW...TSTMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS OVER NRN IA...SRN MN AND WI.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS HAVE FORMED INVOF THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS INTO ECNTRL
NM ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS PASSING OFF TO
THE N. THIS REGION RESIDES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KTS OF SWLY
H5 FLOW...BOOSTING BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. COMPARATIVELY HIGHER
LCLS AT THIS LATITUDE WILL LIKELY KEEP TORNADO THREATS MINIMAL...BUT
LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP BENEATH A COLD TROUGH
SWINGING EWD THROUGH ERN MT...NRN WY AND WRN ND LATE THIS AFTN.
THIS ACTIVITY RESIDES IN A LOW BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND APPEARS
LARGELY DIURNAL. ONLY ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..RACY.. 05/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0045Z (8:45PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#164 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 7:47 pm

I think in the next 1-2 hours we should see a derecho born.
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#165 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 7:47 pm

Could we see a PDS SVR tonight?
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Re:

#166 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 7:48 pm

RL3AO wrote:Could we see a PDS SVR tonight?


Perhaps, but the 10-15% tornado threat would be warranting a Tornado Watch most likely.
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - HIGH RISK today

#167 Postby senorpepr » Thu May 29, 2008 7:52 pm

Check out KETV.com's homepage. There's an image from Kearney...



http://www.ketv.com/weather/16430260/detail.html

OMAHA, Neb. -- Buffalo County's emergency manager reports a tornado swept through Kearney Thursday evening, causing extensive damage to trees and homes.

Photos from Newswatch 7 storm chasers show roofs removed from buildings and cars stacked on top of one another.

Emergency manager Al Burnt said the severe weather destroyed the Buffalo County fairgrounds and damaged campus housing at the University of Nebraska-Kearney around 5:45 p.m.

Burnt said the tornado moved in from the southwest to the northeast.

Buffalo County is asking for assistance from the state and officials are setting up a mobile operation to help Kearney residents.

Emergency managers were asking people to seek shelter before 6 p.m. Thursday.

KETV NewsWatch 7 chief meteorologist Bill Randby said radar showed tornadic activity.

KETV NewsWatch 7 capital bureau chief Andrew Ozaki was near Kearney and saw a lot of power lines and trees down, along with a lot of dust and wind.

A Kearney resident told KETV that she saw tree limb damage outside of town. She said her electricity flickered on and off.

Randby said that after the possible tornado moved through, a second storm was firing up west of Kearney. The first Kearney storm was moving toward Grand Island.

Randby said those storms would continue to head east, possibly hitting Lincoln and Omaha after dark.
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - HIGH RISK today

#168 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 29, 2008 8:03 pm

I think it is the cell in Mitchell County, KS - mean looking hook.
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#169 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 29, 2008 8:09 pm

SPC steps back to MDT
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#170 Postby tidesong » Thu May 29, 2008 8:11 pm

Any KETV image that was there doesn't appear to be on that page anymore.
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#171 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:13 pm

Two wind reports to 80 mph...
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#172 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:17 pm

Waiting on the new watch.
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#173 Postby HarlequinBoy » Thu May 29, 2008 8:19 pm

How long ago did they downgrade?
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Overnight derecho?

#174 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:20 pm

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES
IOWA TO 40 MILES WEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...WW
386...WW 387...WW 388...

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO IA/NWRN
MO THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO
CENTRAL IA AND NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL MO. AN EVOLVING LINEAR MODE WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB/WEST CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD PRODUCING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
BOW STRUCTURES.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.


...PETERS/THOMPSON
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Re:

#175 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:20 pm

HarlequinBoy wrote:How long ago did they downgrade?


They downgraded at 0100Z.
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#176 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:30 pm

New supercells trying to redevelop over central Nebraska.
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Overnight derecho?

#177 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:32 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
826 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC123-141-300145-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-080530T0145Z/
OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-
826 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR MITCHELL
AND EASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES...

AT 822 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...OR 22 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...MOVING
EAST AT 37 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GLEN ELDER AND VICTOR BY 840 PM CDT
BELOIT BY 845 PM CDT

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!


THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3915 9880 3955 9881 3955 9806 3921 9803
3921 9845 3920 9848 3917 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 267DEG 32KT 3938 9845

$$
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#178 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:47 pm

Now up to 28 tornado reports.
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Re: Next severe outbreak - May 29-31 - Overnight derecho?

#179 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:52 pm

Extremly Impressive Images here of a large tornado in Mitchell Co.ImageImageImageImage

VIL of possble tornado itself with debris
Image
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#180 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 29, 2008 8:53 pm

Large wedge tornado approaching Beloit, KS - population 4,000 - according to KSN
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