Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

#161 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:14 pm

Somewhat strong little cell SE of Dallas. Nothing close to severe status though.

#162 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:20 pm

Looks like storms are beginning to fire along dry line axis in Central Oklahoma...

#163 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:23 pm

Oklahoma City radar

#164 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:26 pm

Those cells in OK are getting stronger. Warnings could be out by 1945. Tracking towards the NW part of the OKC metro.

#165 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:27 pm

Buckle your seat-belts, here we go...

#166 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:28 pm

The area from Enid to Abilene is quickly coming to life...

#167 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:31 pm

Warning shortly? Hail just under severe limits.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

OKZ023-027-101945-
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-
127 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO AND GRADY COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERDEN AT 127
PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL TO THREE-QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE.

$$
WR

Ed Mahmoud · #168 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:35 pm

TornadoVideos.Net team is just North of Wichita Falls across the river in SW Oklahoma waiting to begin today's chase.

Position Time:1:36 PM CST Latitude:34.7536166667 Longitude:-98.2012166667 Altitude:367 ft. Heading:E Status:Traveling

#169 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:35 pm

Closer to the triple point, a separate tornado threat may develop:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN OK INTO S CENTRAL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101929Z - 102130Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND NERN OK AND NWD INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN KS. NEW WW MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THIS REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS N CENTRAL OK...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW OBSERVED
INVOF END. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ARE HIGH-BASED /NEAR 700
MB/ PER 17Z LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB. WITH ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN
THE SHORT TERM.

HOWEVER...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR LOWER-BASED
STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT WILL
LIKELY EXIST E OF A LINE FROM EMP TO PNC...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS REGION WOULD
LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ENOUGH TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE TO
REQUIRE TORNADO VERSUS SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36229767 36939745 37879654 38549546 38449482 37419491
36799534 36269624 36229767

#170 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:37 pm

Northern most cell of the three is looking the most dangerous.

#171 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:39 pm

Already some rotation on that cell...I'd be closely monitoring that area. At least a Severe Thunderstorm Warning may be needed shortly.

#172 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:41 pm

On said cell.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 140 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE EL RENO...LAKE CHICKASHA...
MINCO...MUSTANG...POCASSET...TUTTLE...UNION CITY...VERDEN...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY AND YUKON.

#173 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:45 pm

It's about 15 minutes to the next SPC update, although I am sure there will be some heated discussions with some wanting to jump to a High Risk and others saying confidence is low enough to warrant holding at Moderate Risk.

#174 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:46 pm

That cell continues to show signs of wanting to become tornadic.

0144 PM HAIL 2 W CYRIL 34.90N 98.24W
02/10/2009 E0.75 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

Bunkertor · #175 Postby **Bunkertor** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:47 pm

They will extend the MDT area towards KS, for sure.

#176 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:47 pm

I'm just curious, how do the forecast parameters this afternoon/evening in the Southern Plains look as compared to the values preceding the Feb. 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?

#177 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:49 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:I'm just curious, how do the forecast parameters this afternoon/evening in the Southern Plains look as compared to the values preceding the Feb. 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?

More instability but less shear. This is more of a typical March/April setup.

#178 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:50 pm

#179 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:51 pm

That cell is on a bee-line for the western suburbs of OKC.

#180 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:52 pm

20Z: remains a moderate risk, expanded northwest

Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

Re: Tornado outbreak? February 10-11, Plains/Midwest/South

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