Texas Summer 2012

[South Texas Storms]

Wow this storm is really depressing me now. I will NEVER forgive the GFS for screwing Texas with this storm. The one time I wanted it to fail miserably. Of course not. Thanks Florida for stealing our rain and making our drought come back.

[Rgv20]

Debby just trolled all of us

[Portastorm]

I'm with ya fellas and just as disappointed. It's a cruel, cruel blow to our rain hopes.

Guess we now have to hope for more tropical activity down the road ... hopefully something that actually hits us as compared to threatens to hit us.

[Ntxw]

Looks like my thoughts with debby were wrong, unfortunately. But there is always a hope teleconnections still promote a good outlook. Per CPC the core of the heat this year will be focused around the great basin and middle MS valley. No changes in the PNA rise which we should feel effects of early July.

[Portastorm]

Well, this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio offers a little hope by next weekend. Debby may do enough to disrupt the ridge over us and the GFS (yes, the same GFS which appears to have scored a modeling coup with Debby) sees an inverted trough developing in the WGOM and giving us a chance of some rain. I guess that's our next "hope."

[weatherdude1108]

Should have known not to trust the models this early.

Hmmm

[weatherdude1108]

Leave it to the TUTT low! Sneaky b------!


000
FXUS64 KFWD 242301 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...NONE. VFR THE NEXT 30 HRS WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS JUST NW OF THE AREA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK...WITH VARIABLE WINDS 3-6 KTS...THOUGH PRIMARILY
FROM THE E/NE.

OUTLOOK...DOES NOT APPEAR DEBBY WILL HAVE ANY AFFECTS ON NORTH
TEXAS NOW. TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS STEERING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE.

05/

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah this one is gonna hurt for a while. I think if it came here it really could've changed our pattern for the next 2 weeks to be much wetter with all of that tropical moisture in place.

Looks like my thoughts with debby were wrong, unfortunately. But there is always a hope teleconnections still promote a good outlook. Per CPC the core of the heat this year will be focused around the great basin and middle MS valley. No changes in the PNA rise which we should feel effects of early July.

Ntwx, I'm not seeing the wet pattern around the 4th of July in the long range models. GFS shows it dry all across the state for the next 2 weeks. Please give me some hope?

[horselattitudesfarm]

Recon showing Tropical Storm Debby has formed.

Now...does she go to Florida? Louisiana? Or Texas? And how strong does she get?

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) has made it clear in the last hour (via his Tweets) where he thinks she is headed:

* Now that I can see the low level center, believe GFS is wrong with east move as its developing for enough west to miss ne trough.

* Gulf storm to turn west, with Wed or Thur hurricane threat to texas increasing. Northern gulf energy interest affected next 5 days.

* This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of.

* Wednesday will be one heck of summer weather day. cold ne, california. Heat northern and central plains. hurricane heading for Texas.

* @RyanMaue GFS will lose . this morning, when I saw where center was committed to west track into Texas with hurricane hit.

Looks like ole Joe was wrong again. There's a reason he doesn't work for accuweather anymore.....along with his climate change denialism hoopla.

[Ntxw]

Well there isn't a particular storm or system South Texas Storms. I'm not going by modeling atm only that teleconnections and analogs point to lower pressures in Tx during that period which may allow daytime thunderstorms and/or tropical moisture. Silver lining!

Note: DFW hit 100 for the first time yesterday and my thermometer read around 101 sigh

[Rgv20]

Now this is how you start a work week....Forecast High Temperatures for the next three days.


Monday: 105
Tuesday: 104
Wednesday: 105

Rest of the Wk 101+

[Ptarmigan]

If there is anything consoling, Debby is in a really sorry state based on latest satellite image. As much as I want rain, I rather be hit by a healthy tropical storm than a dying and eroded tropical storm.

[Ntxw]

Since the May update, the GFS has performed well I have to admit. Debby was it's first real major system to work with since then and somehow managed to be more consistent (and correct) than Euro, and was the single outlier even to its own ensembles. I can't remember ever truly saying that. GFS had this thing in the NW Carib from the start and every other model in BOC. Will be fascinating to see how it performs in our potentially active El Nino winter. Scored the coup or blind squirrel? We sha'll see

[Portastorm]

I think the blind squirrel analogy works best. Several of our pro mets said it this weekend ... yes, the GFS was closest to being right of all the models but for all the wrong reasons. For my money this coming winter, I'll still go with the Euro and UKMet. Don't forget that the Ukie was pretty good the last few winters ... I believe it was second in terms of performance.

[weatherdude1108]

If there is anything consoling, Debby is in a really sorry state based on latest satellite image. As much as I want rain, I rather be hit by a healthy tropical storm than a dying and eroded tropical storm.

Look at all that dry air over Texas. I also see the dry air in the central Gulf which may have influenced Debbie's demise. That'll just keep the waters nice and toasty for the next potential system to work over.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

I think the blind squirrel analogy works best. Several of our pro mets said it this weekend ... yes, the GFS was closest to being right of all the models but for all the wrong reasons. For my money this coming winter, I'll still go with the Euro and UKMet. Don't forget that the Ukie was pretty good the last few winters ... I believe it was second in terms of performance.

Good call Portastorm will definitely keep score until then . To add thus far our summer has shown a lot of blocking and those cycles tend to last for months. I think the models overall will perform better this winter with more definitive weather signals. Btw don't forget to check Talkin' Tropics thread each week for the Nino from Cycloneye! SOI has been crashing big time, 09 style.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2200

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:

I think the blind squirrel analogy works best. Several of our pro mets said it this weekend ... yes, the GFS was closest to being right of all the models but for all the wrong reasons. For my money this coming winter, I'll still go with the Euro and UKMet. Don't forget that the Ukie was pretty good the last few winters ... I believe it was second in terms of performance.

Not to hate on the GFS but at the end of the day I think it got lucky with Debby. Going to be interesting the rest of the Tropical Season how the GFS performs on a well developed Hurricane/TS and on the upcoming El Nino Winter! London in the RGV!

[mcheer23]

Cant take this heat anymore. my personal weather station says the heat index is 109 tomorrow.

Possible SEVERE STORMS in the SE TX area tomorrow, keep a heads up.

[Nikki]

Cant take this heat anymore. my personal weather station says the heat index is 109 tomorrow.

Possible SEVERE STORMS in the SE TX area tomorrow, keep a heads up.

I agree with you this heat is horrible!! I am so ready for this high to move away from us...is a June/July cold front too much to ask for??

I hate severe storms, but if it will bring us rain and some cloud coverage to help with temps, I say BRING IT ON!!

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like ole Joe was wrong again. There's a reason he doesn't work for accuweather anymore.....along with his climate change denialism hoopla.

Uhmmmm....yeah, Joe B was clearly wrong.

But so was the National Hurricane Center and the great Stacy Stewart, one of their best ever forecasters. In my 25+ years of watching hurricanes and tropical storms, I can't remember ever seeing such a 12-hour flip-flop of an NHC forecast and the thinking behind it.

Truth is, lots of people were wrong on Debby (strength, track, etc.).

As for Bastardi's climate change beliefs, there are plenty of people who agree with him. I happen to be one of them.