Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

March 4 with the dew points over 64 and moderate to strong wind shear. Looks like a potential outbreak(small scale)

Where?

Straight up the plains. Like from Austin TX to past OK City. Your area in fact.

UH OH!

The dew points diminish to near 60 around you. Still very high. That day may bring you trouble.

Yeah, that does sound like trouble, even though it's 5 days out . . .

[Iceresistance]

Supercell Composite is looking scary along I-35 on March 4th



Sounding at +162 hours, contaminated or legit?


Even though it does look contaminated to me . . .


Z500 Vort & 500MB bulk shear wind barbs at +162 hours . . .



Anything that blows up along I-35 near OKC will EXPLODE

[cheezyWXguy]

Supercell Composite is looking scary along I-35 on March 4th

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/scp.us_sc.png

Sounding at +162 hours, contaminated or legit?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_2021022606_162_35.5--97.5.png
Even though it does look contaminated to me . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_27.png

Z500 Vort & 500MB bulk shear wind barbs at +162 hours . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_scus_28.png

Anything that blows up along I-35 near OKC will EXPLODE

Skew T doesn’t scream contaminated to me, but it does look pretty good some tornado action. Surprising amount of instability imo for a temp of only 64 degrees. Wouldn’t get too much into the nitty gritty just yet, the hodograph looks good for at least a low end tornado setup if nothing changes. Maybe we’ll get some tail-end charlie action down here in DFW

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has lower the Severe threat in Oklahoma, likely messy considering the precip . . .



500z Vort is still looking strong . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

12z GFS has lower the Severe threat in Oklahoma, likely messy considering the precip . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_25.png

500z Vort is still looking strong . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_scus_fh126-204.gif

I dont think so. Increase in temperature difference. I can easily see tornadoes spinning up along that line. This needs to be closely monitored.

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s about 6 hours faster than the previous runs. Storms erupt around noon instead of 6pm which means less daytime heating and low level jet to capitalize on.

[Iceresistance]

SPC at 3:30 AM (6z Model runs)

Some low-end severe potential could develop near the cold front, mainly
Day 5/Tue into Day 7/Thu near the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Rich
Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front, and moderate
shear will exist as the shortwave troughs lift northeast of the
region. However, surface cyclogenesis will remain weak, and
widespread precipitation and cloudiness will likely inhibit
destabilization. At this time, the overall severe threat appears too
low/uncertain to include probabilities.

[ElectricStorm]

Still a ways out but, our local forecast has highs in the low 70s for March 4. Combine that with dews in the 60s and we could have a legit event... Cloud cover will likely be an issue like most early season systems here but for an early March set up, this needs to be monitored closely.

[Iceresistance]

SPC should follow suit soon . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is still having a lower severe Threat for Oklahoma, even though it's MUCH higher south of Dallas . . . (And considering the Precip. that is a LOT of T-Storm Activity north of I-40 . . .)



Z500 Vort is very strong . . .

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS is still having a lower severe Threat for Oklahoma, even though it's MUCH higher south of Dallas . . . (And considering the Precip. that is a LOT of T-Storm Activity north of I-40 . . .)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_25.png

Z500 Vort is very strong . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_scus_fh120-228.gif

GFS has been pretty consistent showing a severe threat (so far). The Euro on the other hand is having none of it. One of them is going to have to change and so far neither are.

[Iceresistance]

Marginal Risk in Far Northern Texas, SE Oklahoma, & Western Arkansas Tomorrow for Quarter Sized Hail . . .

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has most of the action (but not all) on March 4 east of Oklahoma now, which would be a much likelier scenario for this time of year. March 5-6 could also end up being a significant Dixie alley event if this run is to be believed.

[ElectricStorm]

Updated SPC outlook for Saturday with a couple of significant changes. Marginal risk is much larger, and now includes all modes of severe weather, whereas earlier it was listed as mainly a hail threat. Also the general T-storm area was expanded well the the N.

Tornado risk area


Also a marginal risk has been introduced for all hazards for Sunday as well.

Tornado threat

[AnnularCane]

0z GFS has most of the action (but not all) on March 4 east of Oklahoma now, which would be a much likelier scenario for this time of year. March 5-6 could also end up being a significant Dixie alley event if this run is to be believed.

The SPC doesn't seem very enthusiastic though.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has most of the action (but not all) on March 4 east of Oklahoma now, which would be a much likelier scenario for this time of year. March 5-6 could also end up being a significant Dixie alley event if this run is to be believed.

The SPC doesn't seem very enthusiastic though.

Yeah so far their not but it's still so far out that anything is possible. Our local forecast is starting to trend in that direction though, now forecasting storms for Thursday, where before they weren't expecting much.

EDIT: Just read the extended SPC outlook and they are completely throwing out the GFS and are going with the Euro.
I wonder... Considering how bad the GFS was during hurricane season, it will be interesting to see if it can rebound during the spring. One of them is going to take a huge L with this system, and right now the SPC thinks it's going to be the GFS

[Iceresistance]

SPC REALLY widened the Marginal Risk . . .

Northern Texas is expected to have Hail, while elsewhere (Including NE Texas) will have a Tornado & Wind Threat . . .

[ElectricStorm]

GFS has caved in to the Euro on this run. No longer showing any severe threat for 3/4. No wonder SPC has it at "potential too low"

[ElectricStorm]

Upgrade to slight risk for Sunday, not surprised at all given the recent model runs.

A large 5% tornado risk area, certainly a widespread event...

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for Durant, OK until 10:45 AM CST for Quarter Sized hail & 60 mph wind gusts . . .