Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

#162 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:45 am

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION - if you live in the main risk areas, you should be caught up on your tornado drills and have a weather radio handy.

Those words sum it up for today. The big difference from the SPC: the area extends farther east as I think this will hold up through the evening hours and the supercells will make it much farther east. Also the line could reach farther south with lesser (but still severe) intensity. Violent tornadoes, destructive hail and hurricane-force winds are all possible.

The severe weather does NOT end there. More dangerous weather on Friday. There is a big difference from the SPC: my track is farther north, with much greater risk factors in the Ohio Valley. However, the risk is just as great.

This could be a 2-day tornado outbreak that could be one we will always remember...

Tamora Mennenga · #163 Postby **Tamora Mennenga** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:50 am

I live in the DFW area. We are getting a line of thunderstorms now at 10:46 a. Will these storms break down the cap, or mean that the cap is broken? Also, will the strorms now destablize the area so more will fire up later today? It is raining pretty hard right now in Mansfield. :lol:

Stormy1 · #164 Postby **Stormy1** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:56 am

I'm seriously confused about the threat potential for Indiana, more specifically the Indy area. Local NWS has backed way off on their predictions and even the local TV mets are acting pretty "blah" about the whole thing, whereas last night they were freaking everyone out.
Then I read the boards and see people forcasting wicked weather close to or in my area.
Any thoughts on a timeframe of when we might know something more definitive?

Thanks

#165 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:03 am

they were calling for thunderstorms here in chicago yesterday too.. but now they seem to have shunted the whole mess further southeast. So now instead of the really nasty stuffs closer to where i'm leaving from (chicago) they are putting more where i'm going too (atlanta). I'm not happy! I wanted sunburn for my vacation! The first time out on my own in with no kiddies in 13 years! WAHHH I'm not too pleased with this *tries to puff at the storms in a vain attempt to get them to go elsewhere* :cry:

blah this for friday not thurs.. sorries

#166 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:52 am

It all depends on if this system holds together into the nighttime hours.

My guess is that the real, mammoth activity will begin around 3:00 pm CDT and hold together right through the evening and overnight.

conestogo_flood · #167 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:46 pm

PDS

#168 Postby **wx247** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:53 pm

And so it begins...

snoopj · #169 Postby **snoopj** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:54 pm

Wow. The watch probabilities are off the charts.

I know it's experimental, but I don't think I've seen that high of numbers in the tornado category.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes - High (> 95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong tornadoes (F2-F5) - Mod (60%)

--snoopj

#170 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:55 pm

snoopj wrote:Wow. The watch probabilities are off the charts.

I know it's experimental, but I don't think I've seen that high of numbers in the tornado category.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes - High (> 95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong tornadoes (F2-F5) - Mod (60%)

--snoopj

do you have a link?

snoopj · #171 Postby **snoopj** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:55 pm

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0154_prob.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #172 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:56 pm

Here we go!!!

My thoughts remind
100 plus confirmed tornado's
800 plus severe weather reports
25 f3s,5 f4's with a possible f5.

This is for Thursday into friday...

#173 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:58 pm

If you are in that area, think of it as if Hurricane Katrina was approaching. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

I think this could be Super Outbreak II.

conestogo_flood · #174 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:59 pm

Call as many people as you can to warn them about today! They will treat this situation more cautiously than other times. They don't know the details about this, you could save a few lives by giving people a heads up.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #175 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:59 pm

I agree with that crazy. Also when are you going to start putting your thing together?

#176 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:01 pm

The article? I WANT to create it now, but I will when it gets really bad. The general consensus made for criteria was:

F2 or stronger in a major city, or
10 or more deaths, even by a single tornado, or
Killer F5, regardless of other events, or
>25 tornadoes, with at least one killer or F5, or
>50 tornadoes overall

#177 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:06 pm

One thing I have done is, when I have thrown my last few predictions out, emphasized safety precautions such as getting the Weather Radio and getting the tornado drills down. Those in tomorrow's threat area should do so today.

I called the Level 5 yesterday - something I almost never do (I have done it again for tomorrow).

MiamiensisWx · #178 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:18 pm

Storms are firing up...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

conestogo_flood · #179 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:30 pm

MiamiensisWx · #180 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:39 pm

Those cells in the upper right corner look nasty... looks like I see a hook forming.

Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

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