Tornado outbreak Saturday - Central states

[CrazyC83]

For those thinking it is over, we saw it last year - it just takes ONE ill-timed, ill-located tornado, in the middle of the night, to be devastating. We saw it last November in Evansville. While the activity as a whole is slowing down, there are still possible tornadoes out there.

[WindRunner]

I highly doubt anything will come from south of Omaha, and probably not much south of the MN/IA border. But you are so true in saying that, one ill-placed storm can trigger a tornado with little or no warning.

[CrazyC83]

No tornado warnings, but 2 TVS's in Minnesota - one on the old Twin Cities cell, one near the IA-MN border.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MN INTO NWRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 776...777...

VALID 170254Z - 170400Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. RISK FOR HAIL/WIND ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL WWS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK
IS NOW LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
BULK OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH
WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...EAST NORTHEAST OF
SURFACE CYCLONE...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 05-06Z. STORMS WEST/NORTH OF THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA ARE
LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
LAYER...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS LIKELY TO DECREASE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL PROBABLY ALSO WILL DIMINISH
WITH NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA/
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

..KERR.. 09/17/2006


ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

47248853 45398990 44859198 44859354 45799488 46239607
48319656 49199230

[HurricaneBill]

For those thinking it is over, we saw it last year - it just takes ONE ill-timed, ill-located tornado, in the middle of the night, to be devastating. We saw it last November in Evansville. While the activity as a whole is slowing down, there are still possible tornadoes out there.

Also, the Evansville tornado formed during a severe thunderstorm.

[dean]

new tornado warning just to the west of me....

======================================================================
WFUS53 KMPX 170358
TORMPX
MNC003-053-170430-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0023.060917T0356Z-060917T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1053 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR OSSEO...
OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COON RAPIDS...
BROOKLYN PARK...
CHAMPLIN...
OSSEO...
BLAINE...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

LAT...LON 4507 9351 4508 9324 4521 9320 4521 9342

$$

TDK

[CrazyC83]

Wow - these nocturnal tornadoes can be really dangerous.

[dean]

especially in our popluated suburbs! Blaine and Coon Rapids both have i think atleast 40,000+ people in them.

[WindRunner]

Well, with all said and done, very few reports to back up what was a good-sized outbreak. Hopefully some surveys can turn up a few more confirmations.

[AirmaN]

Last night was interesting... trying to watch the Nebraska/Southern California game... we spent the entire 3rd quarter looking out windows for funnel clouds.

[NEWeatherguy]

Amazing "outbreak" (if you want to call it that) for September. I knew something was going to go down this weekend with how the NWS was talking Tuesday. Two good-sized paragraphs for an event four days away!

It was also interesting to see those cells that would eventually tornado warning in the Omaha metro area blow up between 6:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. C.D.T. At 6:45 p.m., I was beginning to think the tornado watch was not going to verify. At 7 p.m., the floodgates opened.

[wxmann_91]

Question: what is more prominent when it comes to producing severe weather, the cold front or the dryline?

Undoubtedly, in the U.S., the dryline.

[dean]

Well, with all said and done, very few reports to back up what was a good-sized outbreak. Hopefully some surveys can turn up a few more confirmations.

the Twin Cities NWS survey will most likely verify a tornado in the Rogers/Albertville area, local media are showing aerial shots of the damage. a 10 year old kid was killed by the storms last night. looks like atleast F-1, more likely F-2 or F-3.

[CrazyC83]

Well, with all said and done, very few reports to back up what was a good-sized outbreak. Hopefully some surveys can turn up a few more confirmations.

the Twin Cities NWS survey will most likely verify a tornado in the Rogers/Albertville area, local media are showing aerial shots of the damage. a 10 year old kid was killed by the storms last night. looks like atleast F-1, more likely F-2 or F-3.

I'd say there will be quite a few more total tornadoes than originally reported. This seems to be the most underreported event of the year so far...

[CrazyC83]

Amazing "outbreak" (if you want to call it that) for September. I knew something was going to go down this weekend with how the NWS was talking Tuesday. Two good-sized paragraphs for an event four days away!

It was also interesting to see those cells that would eventually tornado warning in the Omaha metro area blow up between 6:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. C.D.T. At 6:45 p.m., I was beginning to think the tornado watch was not going to verify. At 7 p.m., the floodgates opened.

Although the PDS watch (776) was overdone, only one watch - 778 - busted completely. That was because the cap held in Oklahoma and Texas.

[dean]

the NWS-Twin Cities concluded that the damage in Rogers and Albertville was indeed caused by a nocturnal tornado. The damage survey team concluded that the tornado touched down shortly after 10:00 pm last night and was on the ground for 6 miles with a width of 100 yards and rated an F-2 on the fujita scale. at the time the tornado occured i was at the pool hall about 10-15 miles away from the storm and i can remember how mean this storm looked. just from the lightning i could see how unbelievable the structure was, and this comes about 360 days after the Sept. 21, 2005 tornado/wind event over nearly the same areas. Link to the report:
http://espotter.weather.gov/v1.1a/login.php
local media coverage of the event including damage pictures:
http://wcco.com/

[WindRunner]

Link to the preliminary report on the Twin Cities page:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 0&source=0

The survey for the tornado mentioned (the F2) has not yet been completed, according to the report.
Sioux Falls page says more information (beyond the LSRs) will be posted Monday afternoon.

[WindRunner]

EXCELLENT report on the Sioux Falls page . . . good overall summary, and contains links to good individual pages on each of the tornadoes confirmed in their CWA - 1 F2, 1 F1, and 4 F0s.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=tor2006sep16

Final reports on the F2 from Twin Cities - no real major updates:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=16sep2006

And nothing from the Omaha office as of yet other than a prettied-up version of the LSR reports with a map of their locations, which does still include the one tornado report from the west side of Omaha.

[Aquawind]

Tornado warning came late, report says
Early notice wouldn't have prevented death
BY TAD VEZNER
Pioneer Press

Government meteorologists could have issued a tornado warning several minutes earlier than they did the September night a fatal tornado struck Rogers, according to an internal review issued Thursday.

But "realistically," the review by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated, the warning could not have been issued fast enough to save the life of the tornado's single casualty: a 10-year-old girl.

The fast-forming tornado hit at 9:52 p.m. Sept. 16. The NOAA concluded that, at the earliest, the National Weather Service's Chanhassen branch could have issued a warning at 9:56 p.m. — eight minutes sooner than it did — based on a 9:54 p.m. weather scan. The girl suffered fatal injuries about 9:55 p.m., the report stated.

Still, an earlier warning, "under the absolute best circumstances," could have been issued at 9:52 p.m. — based on an earlier 9:50 p.m. weather scan, the report noted. But because the earlier scan was less conclusive, the review's authors said, a warning couldn't realistically have been issued at that time.

The report further concluded that while staffing levels at Chanhassen were "adequate to handle this event," organizational needs "resulted in a less than optimum staffing situation. An additional forecaster, especially one who had been involved with the ongoing events, would have been beneficial."

It also found that the weather service did not issue a required statement that a severe thunderstorm could produce a tornado — though it did issue a statement that a tornado watch was in effect.

Some Rogers residents have criticized the weather service's performance. U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn., demanded an independent investigation of the weather service and its Chanhassen operations. Dayton and the Rogers residents questioned why no warnings were issued before the tornado touched down.

The weather service repeatedly stated that the tornado did not appear on radar until after it touched down.

"We did the best we could have," Mike Looney, regional spokesman for the National Weather Service and its Minnesota operations at Chanhassen, maintained Thursday. "(The report) would be disheartening to some people on the staff. Even they second-guess themselves at some point."

As for the possibility of the earlier warning: "We usually don't work in ideal conditions," Looney said. "We never had storm reports," he added, referring to a visual confirmation of a storm.

Commerce Department Inspector General Johnnie E. Frazier wrote to Dayton that his department would be conducting an independent audit of Chanhassen operations.

The NOAA's review is expected to be analyzed by Department of Commerce officials for the audit; a date for the audit's release has not been set.

The review was led by Steven Piltz, a meteorologist in charge of the weather service's Tulsa, Okla., office.

Dayton's communications director, Chani Wiggins, said the senator was in Kuwait and had not had a chance to review the report.

"The senator looks forward to the independent investigation by the Department of Commerce," Piltz added. "He wants an independent investigation on this."

The NOAA report can be accessed at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/pdf/RogersAssessment.pdf.

Tad Vezner can be reached at tvezner@pioneerpress.com or 651-228-5461.

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/15915056.htm

[wxmann_91]

I ABSOLUTELY LOVE this pic!!!!

Classic supercell in the background

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/fsd/event ... damage.jpg