SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[cottoncloud]

Since this bulletin was issued, there has been 4-6 inches of rain in some areas where creeks and rivers are still out of their banks and houses are still flooded.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

LAC011-019-115-TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-270245-
/00000.0..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
949 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA


* UNTIL 945 PM CDT THURSDAY

* AT 945 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS...FLOODING IS LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE
WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...KOUNTZE...LUMBERTON AS WELL AS
KIRBYVILLE...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE...BEAUMONT...VIDOR AND ORANGE.
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE ANACOCO...LEESVILLE...DE
RIDDER...BUNDICK LAKE...DRY CREEK...DE QUINCY AND STARKS.

AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY...SO DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATERS OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS...CREEKS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES SHOULD
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT FLOODING TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.


*****


Flood Statement

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

LAC011-019-115-TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-270245-
VERNON LA-BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-TYLER TX-
HARDIN TX-JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
1245 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR ORANGE...
JEFFERSON...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES...AND
NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU...BEAUREGARD AND VERNON PARISHES...

AT 1245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING
TO MOVE OVER LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...MAINLY ALONG A WIDE
BAND EXTENDING FROM SOUR LAKE TEXAS TO LONGVILLE LOUISIANA.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM LUMBERTON TO DEWEYVILLE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING EVADALE...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM STARKS TO GILLIS IN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING FIELDS...DE
QUINCY...AND RAGLEY.

ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN HARDIN COUNTY...WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS.
PLEASE HEED THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND DO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[JenBayles]

Where's Southern Gale? You on that ark yet?

[vbhoutex]

Where's Southern Gale? You on that ark yet?

Staff is casting out everything we can to find her. She did leave her house a few days ago due to the flooding, but we have not recieved any word back from her yet. If anyone has a physical address for her please let one of staff know.

[JenBayles]

Thanks for the update David - I've been thinking about her and with this new round of rain out her way, getting a bit worried. Hope she checks in with us soon.

[JenBayles]

Any sign of a squall line setting up yet? Would that possibly be it waaaay up there in N. Texas?

[jasons2k]

It looks like a training band is going to set-up over Houston metro - just in time for rush hour

[JenBayles]

Just had a look myself schlitz and you're right, it's looking like an ugly setup. All the way up US 59 from Victoria and shooting out the other side of Victoria. Anyone taking 59 south out of town be careful out there.

[vbhoutex]

It looks like a training band is going to set-up over Houston metro - just in time for rush hour

It has set up for sure or at least looks like it from my office on the W Loop. It has been raining here for at least an hour or more and continues to come down. Not a torrential downpour, but a steady rain that is hard at times and slower at times. Looks like a fun commute-NOT!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Ominous discussion from NWS Lake Charles. Looks like a rough night is ahead.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, THE GULF-CONVEYOR-BELT AIRSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ITS ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONIC LIFT CONTINUES TO CREATE (AND TRANSPORT) GULF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE AXIS-OF-STRAIN (OR
DEFORMATION ZONE), GENERATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET, EXTENDS WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONSEQUENTLY, LOW-LEVEL POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

FURTHER-UP, PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEAM IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. TRAVELING SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND REGIME, ARE PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY TO RELEASE THE
POTENTIAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY; THUS SUSTAINING THE STABLE RAIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN FIELD. THESE
TRAVELING SHORTWAVES ARE ALSO RELEASING SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

FOR TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (RATHER THAN POTENTIAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY) WILL PREDOMINANT. THE LIFT ATTENDING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RELEASE THIS INCREASING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY; SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT.

FURTHER-UP, AN INTENSE OKLAHOMA-TO-EAST TEXAS JET STREAK WILL MOVE
IN PLACE. ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (AND ASSOCIATED A-GEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION) WILL PLUMB-LINE-UP WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE, GIVING AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THE FRONTAL LIFT. LINEAR, PRIMARILY MULTI-
CELLULAR, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION-FRONTAL CONFIGURATION WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LAKES REGION
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT; CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA; REACH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND DAWN; AND THEN EXIT
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE MIDMORNING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF
THIS WEATHER CONFIGURATION.

FOR FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING IN THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS (POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling tonight could get REAL interesting. After a recent period of heavy rain, it has become partly to mostly sunny, with a warm breeze and temperatures are heating up quickly! This could lead to much more instability to work with later today if temperatures continue to heat up.

[JenBayles]

Yup - I'm taking advantage of the Bear Creek Dome break to walk the dogs real quick - here's hoping it stays dry for a good 20 minutes.

[Yankeegirl]

Yeah, been pretty dry here all day today, I do hear thunder rolling off in the distance somewhere... and Lifeflight is buzzing around the highway 6 and 529 area ... i can see him trying to find somewhere to land...

[cottoncloud]

It has been raining here most of the day.

Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
256 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...

.DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TRAVELING DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE AREA, LIFTING THE DEEP MOIST AIR TO SATURATION, AND
CONSEQUENTLY GENERATING AND SUSTAINING THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE SITUATION WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE TONIGHT. A STEEP COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY; CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA; REACH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND DAWN;
AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE MIDMORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND IN THE
DESTABILIZING PRE-FRONTAL AIR. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY; SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

LAZ027-028-030-031-041-042-051-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-271200-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-061027T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-CAMERON-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...DERIDDER...
OAKDALE...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CAMERON...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
256 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...RAPIDES IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...VERNON IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE AND TYLER.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* FLOODING MAY RESULT FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAWIDE STORM TOTALS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES (FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR) WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO, MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

[JenBayles]

Hey Yankee - been wondering where you've been today. Haven't seen anything on local news yet on a life flight out our way.

Cottoncloud - keep your feet dry. I know y'all have been getting pounded all day out there. On Houston's west side, we've been mostly under the protection of the Bear Creek Dome - that's the empty spot on the radar whenever a system moves through.

[PTrackerLA]

Flash Flood Warning now in effect for Lafayette. The rain continues to intensify over the area and with this forecasted to last through tomorrow morning we could have some very high rainfall totals in the area. CajunMama I think Lafayette's rain-blocker has failed!

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like a nice line trying to push into the area...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Svr. T-storm watch just to our NW.

[KatDaddy]

Hi all. Sorry I could post earlier. Massive projects need to be finished by end of the year.

We had heavy showers off and on all day downtown. Nice towering CUs throught the day with fast moving low clouds. Very moist and unstable.
On tonights Metro bus ride to the Bay Area Park and Ride I noticed the ditches and streams near Fuqua were very full. It was an isolated event on the SE side of town. Almost 3" near Pearland and .12 at the house in League City. Chambers, Liberty, and Jefferson Counties take the cake so far. Watching the line of storms off to the NW of Houston and developing showers in Brazoria County. I think we are in for a rough night.

[Yankeegirl]

I can see the lightning here to my west... very good lightning, may I add ... You all think that this is going to be the only line that pushes through, or are there more to develop to the west later on tonight?

[Yankeegirl]

OK... I can hear the thunder now... !!