Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST WED OCT 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY.
THROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED.
SOME SHOWERS MOVED INLAND OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING...AS NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORTED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST 08/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES OF 1.53 INCHES. IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...WILL PROMOTE
A VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK....THROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED UNDER
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 2.10 INCHES BY
NEXT MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PR...MAY LEAD TO VCSH/VCTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
TJPS AND TJMZ TILL 08/21Z. TJSJ 08/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
30K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS UP TO
3 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 10 10 10 20
STT 80 81 80 81 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST WED OCT 8 2014

.UPDATE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AND MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL EXIT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF MOISTURE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT LOW WHICH
CONTINUED TO MEANDER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD INJECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST THU OCT 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE EXPECTED OVR PR TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FRI THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING TODAY. DESPITE THAT...
HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE SRN SLOPES WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING SWD ON LIGHT NRLY STEERING
FLOW. BROAD LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
STEERING FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE SSW FRI AND SAT AS TROF AXIS
SHIFTS NW. THIS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORM ON THE NRN SLOPES
FRI-SAT WITH CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE NCOAST/METRO AREA.

TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WX PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT THE 09/00Z GFS RUN HAS
A SPURIOUS LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS PR COLUMBUS DAY. THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
THIS LOW HARDLY HAS ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO
THIS SOLUTION IS BEING COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.


A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...NE TRADES WILL CARRY PASSING SHRA OVER
NORTHERN PR/USVI AND TNCM/TKPK THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS AS SHRAS PASS BY. AFTN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS BETWEEN
09/18Z-22Z. N-NE WIND FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS BLO FL250...SHIFTING FM THE
SW LATE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI BECOMING SOUTHEAST SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. INLAND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. SO NO SIG
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 78 / 20 10 50 10
STT 81 80 81 80 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST THU OCT 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CORDILLERA
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE
RESULT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND FLOW. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
THE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY SO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERTOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS BETWEEN UNTIL 09/22Z. AFTER
09/22Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. TJSJ 09/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND STRONGER ABOVE 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. TRADES RETURN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 86 / 10 50 10 10
STT 77 88 76 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
857 PM AST THU OCT 9 2014

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS INDUCING A WEAK
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THIS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND
DIRECTION ACROSS PR/USVI REGION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM THE NNE
TO THE SSW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE ISLANDS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PR BETWEEN 10/18-22Z. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES NNE OF PR WILL MOVE NW OR NNW AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN AS
ANOTHER TUTT ESTABLISHES OVR THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COL AREA WILL BE OVR PR TODAY SUPPORTING VERY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT. EXPECT SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FORMING OVR THE CNTRL CORDILLERA AND
THEN DRIFT NNE OR NE TOWARD METRO AREA. MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED
SAT-SUN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA WITH AREAL CVRG
OF CONVECTION DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. BOTH THE 10/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS MORE SUPPORT NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR A WEAK LOW
PRES TO FORM...THE MAJORITY OF 10/00Z GEFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MON TO INDICATE HIGHER
RAIN PROBS WHEN COMPARED TO SAT AND SUN BUT CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT
THIS LOW PRES ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN
ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING -SHRA/TSRA OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EASTERN PR MAY AFFECT NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND NRN USVI
TIL 10/12Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL FM 10/17Z-10/22Z MAINLY VCTY
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJNR AND CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. DURG WHICH TIME MVFR
CONDS WILL BE PSBL. SFC WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS TODAY THEN INCREASE UP TO 10 KT BY TUE. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 40 10 10 10
STT 87 80 87 81 / 40 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
19N52W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 14N52W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 5 TO 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO
18N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for 90L.

AL, 90, 2014101018, , BEST, 0, 141N, 500W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING
THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER A VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AND SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ/TJBQ TAF
SITES..PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL AT LEAST 10/22Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FEET TONIGHT...
INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 88 / 10 10 10 10
STT 76 88 77 88 / 10 10 20 20

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING
THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER A VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AND SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ/TJBQ TAF
SITES..PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL AT LEAST 10/22Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FEET TONIGHT...
INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 88 / 10 10 10 10
STT 76 88 77 88 / 10 10 20 20

Hey Cycloneye, very interresting discussion something to keep an eye on for sure! But let's wait and see if this thing is a false alarm or not. Time will tell...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014101100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 527W, 25, 1009, DB

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WAS REESTABLISHED
ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE 1011 MB LOW REMAINS NEAR 15N52W AND IS
CONSIDERED A SEPARATE FEATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-
60W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TODAY THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRIES TO
ESTABLISH AROUND 700 MB. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO PAST TWO DAYS.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ON THE NORTH COAST. STEERING FLOW THEN SHIFTS FROM THE
ENE SUN FOCUSING SHOWERS ON THE SW COAST.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS. IN GENERAL...THEY
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONLY A FEW GFES MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC LOW BUT THE MAJORITY STILL SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND THE ONES THAT SHOW A CLOSED
SFC LOW INDICATE A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN...THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WOULD FALL OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS (ZONE AMZ710) MON NIGHT
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING OVER PR
MON AND MON NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUE WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP A
"TAIL" OVR PR AS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUE. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
FOR ANY DECISIONS THAT NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE AROUND TNCM/TKPK CREATING BRIEF
MVFR CIGS. BETWEEN 11/17Z-22Z...TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ/TJBQ...PRODUCING MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LOW
LEVEL WIND FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AROUND 11/15Z...THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT AFTER
11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z TUE AS TROPICAL WAVE/INVEST 90L
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN VERY POOR ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL
WAVE..FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS AOB 20KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 81 / 40 0 10 40
STT 82 81 82 81 / 10 10 10 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. While no significant development of this system appears
likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early
next week. This disturbance should move generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and
interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
BEEN RELOCATED ACCORDING TO ASCAT WIND DATA...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS ALONG 54W AND ASSOCIATED WITH A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014101112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 543W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

This is for new invest 91L.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1321 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20141011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141011 1200 141012 0000 141012 1200 141013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 35.4W 14.6N 37.5W 15.0N 39.5W 15.4N 41.4W
BAMD 14.0N 35.4W 15.0N 36.7W 15.8N 38.0W 16.5N 39.3W
BAMM 14.0N 35.4W 14.5N 36.9W 14.9N 38.5W 15.4N 40.2W
LBAR 14.0N 35.4W 14.8N 36.5W 16.0N 37.7W 17.0N 38.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141013 1200 141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 43.0W 15.8N 45.3W 15.5N 47.4W 15.7N 49.3W
BAMD 16.8N 40.4W 17.1N 42.0W 17.2N 43.1W 17.7N 43.7W
BAMM 15.8N 41.6W 15.9N 43.7W 15.7N 45.3W 15.7N 46.9W
LBAR 17.8N 39.3W 18.6N 38.8W 20.2N 36.8W 22.8N 32.2W
SHIP 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 35.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 32.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Update from the San Juan NWS at Noon.

TROPICAL UPDATE...DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IT.