AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE MAR 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AS COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT IT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH WITHOUT
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR PSBL BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TKPK FOR CIGS...VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 18/22Z. TIL 17/23Z...AREAS
OF HIR TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH ISOLD -SHRA OVR PR AND NR TIST. AFT
23Z...MOSTLY CLR. WINDS E 5 TO 15 KT UP TO FL050.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A NORTH SWELL...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 85 / 10 20 30 30
STT 73 84 73 85 / 30 30 40 40
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THERE IS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO EAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE
USVI. THESE EXPECTED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE BIG RAIN
PRODUCERS...MAINLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE EAST DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
SIMILAR STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...AND
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING STABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...MAINLY SOME RAIN...AND NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EITHER.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS WHEN A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN...THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GFS
MODEL INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN PR. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD EXPECT THE TYPICAL MARCH WEATHER
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND ISX. AFTER
18/16Z...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ IN SHRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING
AFTER 18/12Z FROM THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
AND CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS REPORTING
SEAS OF 7-8 FEET WITH A NORTH SWELL. AFTER CALCULATING THE SWELL
DECAY...SEAS COULD GO UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE WATERS TO THE NW OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE MONA PASSAGE MAY OBSERVE SEAS OF 7 FEET. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT
THIS IS A BORDERLINE SITUATION THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
TO THE AREAS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE NEAR-SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES...IF ANY...WILL BE MADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 20 40 20 20
STT 84 74 85 74 / 30 40 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THERE IS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO EAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE
USVI. THESE EXPECTED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE BIG RAIN
PRODUCERS...MAINLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE EAST DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
SIMILAR STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...AND
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING STABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...MAINLY SOME RAIN...AND NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EITHER.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS WHEN A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN...THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GFS
MODEL INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN PR. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD EXPECT THE TYPICAL MARCH WEATHER
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND ISX. AFTER
18/16Z...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ IN SHRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING
AFTER 18/12Z FROM THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
AND CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS REPORTING
SEAS OF 7-8 FEET WITH A NORTH SWELL. AFTER CALCULATING THE SWELL
DECAY...SEAS COULD GO UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE WATERS TO THE NW OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE MONA PASSAGE MAY OBSERVE SEAS OF 7 FEET. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT
THIS IS A BORDERLINE SITUATION THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
TO THE AREAS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE NEAR-SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES...IF ANY...WILL BE MADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 20 40 20 20
STT 84 74 85 74 / 30 40 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF A STRONG JET WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY PROMOTING NORTHWEST FLOW. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WITH THE HIGH IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BUILD OVER THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MID LEVELS
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA ON TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND AROUND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AROUND 19/12Z.
AMOUNTS...EVEN ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES WILL BE ONLY MODERATE FOR
THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN. PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL OCCUR LATE
THURSDAY AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE AT MORE OR LESS THE SAME
QUANTITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS INDICATED THAT
FLOW MAY TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD
BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON THE NORTH COAST. OTHERWISE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FUEL OUR VERY
TYPICAL MARCH SHOWER PATTERN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND
TJSJ AFTER 18/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 19/13Z FROM
THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS. MTN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP AFT 18/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO HOLD BUOY 41043 ABOVE 7
FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS ONLY WEAKLY FELT ALONG
THE NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BUOY
41053 DID REPORT ALMOST 5.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW 6 FEET BY
THURSDAY NOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SWELL FROM ANOTHER SYSTEM LEAVING
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 87 / 40 20 20 20
STT 73 85 73 84 / 40 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF A STRONG JET WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY PROMOTING NORTHWEST FLOW. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WITH THE HIGH IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BUILD OVER THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MID LEVELS
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA ON TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND AROUND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AROUND 19/12Z.
AMOUNTS...EVEN ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES WILL BE ONLY MODERATE FOR
THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN. PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL OCCUR LATE
THURSDAY AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE AT MORE OR LESS THE SAME
QUANTITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS INDICATED THAT
FLOW MAY TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD
BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON THE NORTH COAST. OTHERWISE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FUEL OUR VERY
TYPICAL MARCH SHOWER PATTERN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND
TJSJ AFTER 18/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 19/13Z FROM
THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS. MTN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP AFT 18/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO HOLD BUOY 41043 ABOVE 7
FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS ONLY WEAKLY FELT ALONG
THE NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BUOY
41053 DID REPORT ALMOST 5.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT AND ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW 6 FEET BY
THURSDAY NOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SWELL FROM ANOTHER SYSTEM LEAVING
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 87 / 40 20 20 20
STT 73 85 73 84 / 40 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY.THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE USVI. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHILE THE REST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OBSERVED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CAUSING SUBSIDENCE...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SO PASSING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN THE
VERY LONG RANGE...GFS MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA LATER
TODAY...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 19/16Z AND 19/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 19/12Z FROM
THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN IS NOW REPORTING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF UNDER 5 FEET AND BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS IS NOE REPORTING SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SWELL FROM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LEAVING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY.THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE USVI. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHILE THE REST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OBSERVED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CAUSING SUBSIDENCE...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SO PASSING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN THE
VERY LONG RANGE...GFS MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA LATER
TODAY...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 19/16Z AND 19/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 19/12Z FROM
THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN IS NOW REPORTING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF UNDER 5 FEET AND BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS IS NOE REPORTING SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SWELL FROM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LEAVING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS COVERED MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH AFFECTED THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREATE A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 19/22Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS COVERED MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH AFFECTED THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREATE A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 19/22Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
SAT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT THU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING 70W PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AMPLIFY SWD NEXT 12 HRS AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO DEEPEN WITH SCT
SHOWERS FORMING OVR SW PR ON A NE STEERING FLOW. HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT INDICATED SAT THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LIMITING AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS
BUT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT THU. MODELS
INDICATE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. NORTH
SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SWELL DECAY FROM
BUOY 41049 MIDWAY BETWEEN PR AND BERMUDA INDICATES 8-9 FT SWELLS
AT 16-17 SECS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SCA
AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
BUOYS CLOSELY FOR THE NEED OF ADVISORIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
SAT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT THU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING 70W PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AMPLIFY SWD NEXT 12 HRS AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO DEEPEN WITH SCT
SHOWERS FORMING OVR SW PR ON A NE STEERING FLOW. HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT INDICATED SAT THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LIMITING AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS
BUT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT THU. MODELS
INDICATE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. NORTH
SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SWELL DECAY FROM
BUOY 41049 MIDWAY BETWEEN PR AND BERMUDA INDICATES 8-9 FT SWELLS
AT 16-17 SECS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SCA
AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
BUOYS CLOSELY FOR THE NEED OF ADVISORIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...A STREAMER COMING OFF FROM SAINT THOMAS
DEVELOPED...PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM SAINT THOMAS WESTWARD
TO CULEBRA. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...
PARTLYCLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR
THE WEEKEND...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EAST WINDS AT 10-15
KT.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 41043 170 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WAS
SHOWING SWELLS OF 7 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL ACTION WILL
ARRIVE TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CANT BE RULE OUT...AS BREAKING WAVE COULD REACH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 10 10 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...A STREAMER COMING OFF FROM SAINT THOMAS
DEVELOPED...PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM SAINT THOMAS WESTWARD
TO CULEBRA. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...
PARTLYCLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR
THE WEEKEND...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EAST WINDS AT 10-15
KT.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 41043 170 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WAS
SHOWING SWELLS OF 7 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL ACTION WILL
ARRIVE TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CANT BE RULE OUT...AS BREAKING WAVE COULD REACH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 10 10 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT MAR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EAST OF 60W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH STEADY HEIGHT RISES
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
DRYING AND STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY
SUN AND MON. NEXT SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MON NIGHT AND WEAKEN RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SOMEWHAT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TUE
AND TUE NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS TUE OVR NW PR AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. RAPID DRYING EXPECTED WED AND THU AS TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH ISOLD TO LOCALLY SCT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION EACH DAY
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-KT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLD -SHRA AROUND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...CAUSING VCSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO SW-PR. THIS WILL
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJPS...MAINLY BETWEEN 21/18-23Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KT LATER TODAY
AND REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 15KT THU-SAT. NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON SCA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT MAR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EAST OF 60W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH STEADY HEIGHT RISES
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
DRYING AND STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY
SUN AND MON. NEXT SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MON NIGHT AND WEAKEN RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SOMEWHAT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TUE
AND TUE NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS TUE OVR NW PR AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. RAPID DRYING EXPECTED WED AND THU AS TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH ISOLD TO LOCALLY SCT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION EACH DAY
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-KT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLD -SHRA AROUND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...CAUSING VCSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO SW-PR. THIS WILL
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJPS...MAINLY BETWEEN 21/18-23Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KT LATER TODAY
AND REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 15KT THU-SAT. NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON SCA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST SAT MAR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONLY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE- TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...INDUCING A MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FORESEE FUTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP 16 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 87 / 20 20 10 10
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST SAT MAR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONLY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE- TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...INDUCING A MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FORESEE FUTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP 16 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 87 / 20 20 10 10
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 10 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HEIGHT RISES NEXT 24 HRS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRYING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST MON AND
TUE RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TUE. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVR NW PR
MON-TUE UNDER A SE STEERING FLOW. MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TUE
NIGHT THRU WED EVENING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W
LATE WED THROUGH THU MORNING BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH
WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVR PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE BAHAMAS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
SIG DRYING OVR THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
22/17Z...ISOLD SHOWERS PSBL OVR W INTERIOR AND SW PR TIL 22/22Z.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS.
WND FM E-NE A 10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV TO
MAX NR 50 KTS AT FL350.
&&
.MARINE...SFC WINDS AROUND 10-KT THROUGH WED STRENGTHENING TO
15-KT THU AND FRI. SEAS DIMINISHING 2-4 FT THEN BUILDING 3-5 FT
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 0 0 10 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 0 20 20 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HEIGHT RISES NEXT 24 HRS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRYING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST MON AND
TUE RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TUE. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVR NW PR
MON-TUE UNDER A SE STEERING FLOW. MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TUE
NIGHT THRU WED EVENING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W
LATE WED THROUGH THU MORNING BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH
WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVR PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE BAHAMAS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
SIG DRYING OVR THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
22/17Z...ISOLD SHOWERS PSBL OVR W INTERIOR AND SW PR TIL 22/22Z.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS.
WND FM E-NE A 10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV TO
MAX NR 50 KTS AT FL350.
&&
.MARINE...SFC WINDS AROUND 10-KT THROUGH WED STRENGTHENING TO
15-KT THU AND FRI. SEAS DIMINISHING 2-4 FT THEN BUILDING 3-5 FT
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 0 0 10 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 0 20 20 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST SUN MAR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS EXPECTED FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE LESS
THAN ONE INCH. THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONLY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
IN THE MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...INDUCING A MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER
23/17Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 23/22Z... PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED PWAT VALUE OF 1.37 INCHES AND A LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWARD
BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 10-20K FEET AND STRONGER BUT STILL NORTHWARD
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 90 / 0 10 10 10
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST SUN MAR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS EXPECTED FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE LESS
THAN ONE INCH. THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONLY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
IN THE MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...INDUCING A MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER
23/17Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 23/22Z... PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED PWAT VALUE OF 1.37 INCHES AND A LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWARD
BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 10-20K FEET AND STRONGER BUT STILL NORTHWARD
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 90 / 0 10 10 10
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 10 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST MON MAR 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNSEDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HOLD THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT
MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH...ONLY FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 030-040 DEVELOPING AT JMZ/JBQ AFTER 18Z WITH
SHRA. ESE SFC WINDS 10-15 KT XCPT FOR A WEST WIND AT JMZ AROUND
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK.
SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST MON MAR 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNSEDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HOLD THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT
MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH...ONLY FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 030-040 DEVELOPING AT JMZ/JBQ AFTER 18Z WITH
SHRA. ESE SFC WINDS 10-15 KT XCPT FOR A WEST WIND AT JMZ AROUND
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK.
SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST MON MAR 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
PASS THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT APPROACHES NEXT WEEK BUT DOES NOT
CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
RIDGES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA GENERATING MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BUT REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES DAWNED MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
A STREAMER OFF OF SAINT CROIX JOINED ONE OFF OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE
TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS TO CAROLINA AND THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
AIRPORT WHERE 32 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FELL. MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
NOT SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES WERE
SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS TURNED TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. SHOWERS
FORMED IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVED ACROSS
VIEQUES AND CEIBA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THEN
DEVELOP IN MUCH THE SAME PATTERN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SHALLOW SINCE MID LAYERS
REMAIN ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY. PATCHY MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES UNTIL THE
BEST MOISTURE OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF JUST
OVER ONE AND A HALF INCHES COME BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...ALSO SOME SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT TJSJ AND TIST TOO. OVERNIGHT...FEW PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
WITH CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA FM TIME TO TIME THRU 24/12Z. ESE WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THRU AT
LEAST 24/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE AT A MINIMUM...WITH SOME SHELTERED AREAS
EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 3 FOOT SEAS AND WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AT THEIR HIGHEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHEN A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MID LATITUDES OVER THE
WEEKEND WINDS ABATE...BUT RETURN WHEN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND IT ON THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 90 74 88 / 20 20 10 10
STT 76 85 76 84 / 30 30 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST MON MAR 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
PASS THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT APPROACHES NEXT WEEK BUT DOES NOT
CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
RIDGES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA GENERATING MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BUT REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES DAWNED MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
A STREAMER OFF OF SAINT CROIX JOINED ONE OFF OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE
TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS TO CAROLINA AND THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
AIRPORT WHERE 32 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FELL. MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
NOT SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES WERE
SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS TURNED TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. SHOWERS
FORMED IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVED ACROSS
VIEQUES AND CEIBA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THEN
DEVELOP IN MUCH THE SAME PATTERN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SHALLOW SINCE MID LAYERS
REMAIN ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY. PATCHY MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES UNTIL THE
BEST MOISTURE OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF JUST
OVER ONE AND A HALF INCHES COME BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...ALSO SOME SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT TJSJ AND TIST TOO. OVERNIGHT...FEW PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
WITH CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA FM TIME TO TIME THRU 24/12Z. ESE WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THRU AT
LEAST 24/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE AT A MINIMUM...WITH SOME SHELTERED AREAS
EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 3 FOOT SEAS AND WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AT THEIR HIGHEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHEN A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MID LATITUDES OVER THE
WEEKEND WINDS ABATE...BUT RETURN WHEN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND IT ON THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 90 74 88 / 20 20 10 10
STT 76 85 76 84 / 30 30 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE MAR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST
SATURDAY. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY
FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE ON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY/ MONDAY.
.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 030-040 DEVELOPING AT JMZ/JBQ AFTER 18Z WITH
SHRA. ESE SFC WINDS 10-15 KT XCPT FOR A WEST WIND AT JMZ AROUND
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 20 10 10 20
STT 85 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE MAR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST
SATURDAY. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY
FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE ON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY/ MONDAY.
.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 030-040 DEVELOPING AT JMZ/JBQ AFTER 18Z WITH
SHRA. ESE SFC WINDS 10-15 KT XCPT FOR A WEST WIND AT JMZ AROUND
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 20 10 10 20
STT 85 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.
A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.
A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Gustywind wrote:Hi Cycloneye! Thanks for this daily jobwe appreciate us in all the Carib
. Hope you're always in shape as usual (seems you are our SUPERMAN!), see you!
Welcome back to another hurricane season that gets closer and closer.Let's see how the tropical activity affects or not the Eastern Caribbean islands.The important thing is to be prepared no matter how the season is in terms of activity.
oh yeah you're right! Let's see what could happen this year and be prepared as usual.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 89 75 / 10 20 20 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 89 75 / 10 20 20 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 76 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 75 86 / 30 30 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 76 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 75 86 / 30 30 30 20
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